Christopher Steiner's Blog

As other manifestations of AI have become markedly useful during the last few years, Siri has remained an unimproved error-prone utility.

The newest version of the Macbook Pro finally fixes just about all of these foibles that were introduced by Apple to what is its legacy product and one that greatly matters to the company's image if not necessarily its bottom line.

In the history of private equity, no deal has ever approached the current value of Facebook/Meta, currently about $600 billion, but another drop in its valuation could make things interesting.

Insurtech startup Spot has teamed with Telluride to offer skiers medical insurance for anything related to what happens on the mountain.

The PAF is fresh and new for 2019. Heed it.

We have again teamed with ZRankings.com to put together the definitive list of best ski resorts in North America. As always, our decisions are driven by a multitude of things, including snowfall, terrain, crowds and town ambience. These factors are baked into a master algorithm that yields, for 220 ski resorts on the continent, a Pure Awesomeness Factor, or PAF. In this piece, we’ll dig into the top 10 ski resorts by PAF for the skiing winter of 2018-2019.

This article also functions as something of a catchall for what has happened in the world of skiing during the last year, from ski resorts in Colorado to those in California, Canada and the Northeast. Ski industry reshuffling is factored into the PAF algorithm, so they’re worth considering here as well.

There has never been a skiing offseason that has put so many changes and new considerations in front of skiers. The season pass game, which had been fairly static during the last several years, with Vail Resorts’ lineup squaring off against a group of smaller resorts and independents belonging to the Mountain Collective, has seen its largest shakeup since the 1990s. Skiers must be more strategic than ever when picking what season pass to buy, and what ski resorts to travel to and when to do it.

Skiers should also be strategic about the gear they buy, which is why they should see our top picks for Winter Gear for 2019.

Just a year ago, Vail’s Epic Pass remained the unrivaled choice for skiers seeking a diversity of geographies and ski resorts on an unlimited ski pass. The Ikon Pass has remade the landscape, however. This resultant competition of Ikon vs. Epic presents skiers with two passes with resort lineups that are uncannily comparable.

That a full-fledged rival to the Epic Pass could crop up so quickly—and with such a strong offering of resorts—is a testament to the focus of the team at Alterra. It is a fascinating private equity play whose exit will be determined by two things: its ability to sell Ikon Passes in numbers that eventually approach those of Vail’s Epic Pass, and the public market’s willingness to value another company built upon a diverse collection of resorts bound by one pass.

The spark for all of this change was the 2017 formation Alterra Mountain Company, backed by cash from Denver Private Equity Firm KSL Capital and the Crown Family of Chicago, which owns Aspen Ski Company. Alterra’s first big plays were to scoop up Colorado resorts Steamboat and Winter Park, along with California’s Mammoth Mountain. From there, Alterra has gone on to buy a bevy of others, including Utah’s Deer Valley and Solitude, and a sizable portfolio of resorts in the East.

In addition, Alterra has built upon existing relationships in place from the Mountain Collective and brought major independent resorts to the Ikon Pass, including Snowbird, Alta, Jackson Hole, and Big Sky—all places where skiers receive five or seven days, depending on what version of the pass they purchased.

Vail countered quickly, buying Crested Butte and strengthening its eastern lineup with more acquisitions. Most interesting, Vail peeled independent Telluride away from its Mountain Collective brethren and brought it to the Epic Pass, the full $900 version of which will get skiers seven days at Telluride, a ski mountain we hold in high esteem and the best ski town in North America.

Additionally, Vail purchased Steven’s Pass in Washington State to try and lure Seattle skiers who travel, and Alterra has done the same by bringing Washington’s Crystal Mountain into its fold.

The result here is that nearly every major destination ski resort in North America is affiliated with either the Epic Pass or the Ikon Pass. There will be more than a few avid skiers who buy both, granting themselves access to a footprint covering the entire country for less than $2,000, a price that, not long ago, was good for a pass to just one or two mountains.

Individual lift tickets will continue to grow more expensive—they have touched $200 at several resorts for peak dates such as President’s Day—presenting skiers who get out for two to three days a winter with something of a conundrum: ski more at a drastically reduced price per day, or pay up for those single-day tickets.

Both Vail Resorts and Alterra count on lots of skiers buying their annual passes while logging a small number of days—five or less. We implore you to not fall into this group. In short, ski more.

To that end, heed the advice you find here, plan a couple of trips, buy the right pass, and ski. Nobody laments getting in an extra three days of skiing or spending that last weekend of the season in Telluride instead of watching it rain at home.

The last seven years have been as healthy as they come in the industry; Ikon’s existence, in and of itself, offers proof of that. Skiers can be thankful for that—competition is almost always good for consumers.

Skiers should also be thankful, perhaps even more so, for an early season that has not only brought large quantities of snow, but also steady cold temperatures across most of the west. The early winter has been strong across much of the mountains, not least of all Colorado, which has received major snowfalls as well as the solid cold temperatures.

That bodes well for snow preservation going into the holidays, as well as for snowmaking, which, given time, can play a big role in getting wide expanses of terrain open early for Christmas skiers.

Snowfall

Within these rankings, we include many factors. Among those factors are snow inputs that we believe to be unique. We not only take into account a ski resort’s average annual snowfall (we use true snowfall averages, not ones from marketing brochures), but we also factor the quality of snow that usually falls, and how often it might fall (not just how much).

Helping us on this front with the snow, as always, is Tony Crocker of Bestsnow.net.

We account for the average quality of snow, which gives more value to the Rockies, Utah and inner western Canada, compared with the California Sierra, the Pacific Northwest and the East. We also examine locations’ seasonal snowfall standard deviations.

This gives more value to snow that falls in places such as Alta, Utah, where drought months nearly never occur, compared with places, such as ski resorts in the Tahoe region, which, while they may maintain a high annual average, are more likely to go months with minimal snowfall.

Full snowfall rankings for all the major ski resorts in North America can be viewed at ZRankings’ ski resort snow rankings.

When considering snow, it’s important to also factor in the time of winter for a given ski trip. Some ski resorts are better bets for early season ski trips compared with others, while some mountains have characteristics that make them excellent candidates for a spring break ski trip.

Telluride, for instance, sits at a high elevation and has good amounts of terrain that face north, which helps them preserve snow and stay cold even when the spring sun gains the upper hand from winter.

For those interested comparing ski resorts’ snow qualities compared with the time of the winter, each ski resort page at ZRankings features graphs showing how the snow quality changes given the time of winter.

Some general wisdom around snow and ski trips: once you’re booked, don’t fret.

It’s true that we study weather patterns and historical snowfall obsessively, but when it comes to our own ski trips, we try and keep our minds unpolluted by the little details around weather leading into a trip.

Instead of poring over forecasts, we recommend looking at the weather once, a few days out, and packing accordingly. From there, just take things as they come. Yes, looking out the window after a night when it was supposed to dump is unavoidable, but it’s easier to sleep if you can get your mind off of the possibility of surfing giant mounds of powder the following day.

Top 10 Winter Gear – 2019

As is always the case, there are a group of new products that stood out for the upcoming winter season. Acquiring the right gear is a never-ending mission, much like planning that spring break ski trip, although we recommend that skiers wring out their current gear for all it’s worth before shopping for an upgrade. We’re all happier—and less poor—when we get everything we can from the gear we have now, even if that means deploying a little duct-tape here and there. That being said, for those who are in the market for gear that isn’t taped up, we heartily recommend the following items for this season.

Atomic Shift Binding – $550

“One binding to rule them all.” A demonstrative statement, to be sure, but Atomic’s new product has aspirations that no other binding has yet approached. The binding seeks to give skiers the benefits of a true tech binding while traveling uphill, while also preserving the kind of performance and feel that comes only through an alpine binding while charging downhill. Atomic has been working on this design for years, and it could finally be the one to free skiers from purgatorial limbo when it comes to deciding what to mount on their new boards that will play equally well in the resort, the side-country and in the backcountry.

Arc’Teryx Sabre LT – $649

Arc’Teryx took hold of the best-jacket-maker mantle more than a decade ago and it has yet to release it. The Sabre is another extension of this now venerable tradition. The Sabre has a longer cut, to keep the crud and powder of Jackson Hole from finding its way where it shouldn’t. The hood easily swallows large ski helmets, and its waterproof zippers keep skiers dry, and pit zips sealed when they’re not supposed to be shedding heat. Resort skiers will love the internal dump pocket that gives skiers a catch-all when looking for places to stow all the knick-knacks that must accompany us on the slopes. The 3L Gore-Tex keeps water out as well as a boat bottom, but let’s skiers’ perspiration out in the other direction. And the newer Gore-Tex fabric also offers great pliability with a supple feel. The jacket won’t punish up-hillers at only 630 grams. Also: it looks cool.

Eddie Bauer BC Evertherm Jacket – $499

Eddie Bauer has continued its pursuit of technical breakthroughs with this jacket, which combines a waterproof shell with a down insulating layer in a package that is thin, light and versatile. This is not a minimalist jacket, however. Its slim package contains a insulation powerhouse via the use of ultra-thin down sheets, eliminating the bulky requirements of down baffles and or quilting. With an insulated hood and Eddie Bauer’s longest lasting moisture-shedding finish, this coat is equally ready for a long day of laps on a wet day in the Cascades, or a dry, sunny and cold day in Telluride.

More gear: Eddie Bauer, Arc’Teryx, Black Diamond, Stio, and Seirus.

Trew Capow Bib – $449  

Still gathering steam as a known quantity on the slopes, this plucky innovator from Oregon continues to improve on its best product: the snow bib. Trew developed this piece in coordination with CAPOW! Guides from Revelstoke, a place that knows all kinds of conditions, from rainy and wet at the bottom of the mountain to dumping and cold at the top. The result of this coordination is a wonderfully versatile outerwear item that will keep the wearer’s lower half dry and warm through any conditions. With a built-in beacon pocket and no-slip shoulder straps, these bibs will work hard in the backcountry or doing laps at the top of the mountain. Derzimax EV laminate ensures that skiers won’t think twice about sitting down on a snowy chair, awaiting the next buzz to the bottom.

Seirus Heatwave+ Ascent Mitt – $110

This mitt keeps your fingers toasty with a cocoon of reflective insulation and a Neofleece panel that seals in warmth and repels cold. A Soundtouch thumb allows the web-obsessed among us to keep surfing on a touchscreen while riding the lift without exposing our precious thumbs to the cold. The leather shell offers a suppleness that is handy when gripping a ski pole on a tricky descent or a large can of Budweiser in the parking lot. The liner gives each finger its own little sleeping bag in which to find warmth, while still capturing the whole hand’s heat and sharing it amongst all the digits. For skiers and riders who get cold hands on the hill, a switch to this mitt offers a road to better winters and more happiness in life.

POC, Black Diamond, Trew, Atomic and Stio all landed pieces on our list.

POC Obex Spin – $200

POC has been leading the way in helmet design since it infiltrated the North American ski market some years ago. The company has raised its own design standards with the Obex, which incorporates the company’s SPIN system that uses silicon pads that help avoid transferring shear forces from an impact to the wearer’s head and spine. The helmet features copious venting that can be toggled on and off, including venting toward the front designed to direct airflow through goggles to prevent fog on interior lens walls. Size adjustments come quickly and easily through internal controls.

Discerning companies and startups with true AI from those who are still pretenders is a key skill in the evolving world of IT due diligence and tech dealmaking. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

Claiming some level of fluency with AI methods has become commonplace for startups and tech companies of all stripes, whether they’re peddling SaaS, hardware, ad-tech or the latest social network. But the claims often fall short of reality.

As AI becomes a larger piece of IP in tech deals going forward, whether the buyer is a private equity firm or a strategic acquirer, the need for technology due diligence around AI methods and models continually increases.

I’ve seen a significant uptick just during the last several months from clients seeking to understand how good a target acquisition’s AI is compared with competitors and what best practices in the larger AI space look like.

Gaining visibility into a company’s AI competency can be paramount to feeling good about an acquisition bid and having the confidence to remain active in a competitive sales process.

The task here wouldn’t be so challenging if there weren’t so many different things represented as AI within the market. Some companies can get very liberal in what they describe as AI.

Hiring a couple of data scientists and setting up a data warehouse is more than many companies manage to do, but it’s a long way from knitting machine learning and AI into a product or using it to bring true insights to a business. There is a large gap between companies who have achieved some mastery of AI techniques leading to incremental productivity and the rest who have not.

Parsing those differences, being able to tell whose AI is likely good and legitimately implemented from those whose isn’t can be hard during a single conversation or product demo.

But there are tells. There exist some key questions that can be asked that can very quickly give a clearer picture of how well and how far a company’s efforts have gone.

Discerning companies and startups with true AI from those who are still pretenders is a key skill in the evolving world of IT due diligence and tech dealmaking. Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota/Bloomberg

Claiming some level of fluency with AI methods has become commonplace for startups and tech companies of all stripes, whether they’re peddling SaaS, hardware, ad-tech or the latest social network. But the claims often fall short of reality.

As AI becomes a larger piece of IP in tech deals going forward, whether the buyer is a private equity firm or a strategic acquirer, the need for technology due diligence around AI methods and models continually increases.

I’ve seen a significant uptick just during the last several months from clients seeking to understand how good a target acquisition’s AI is compared with competitors and what best practices in the larger AI space look like.

Gaining visibility into a company’s AI competency can be paramount to feeling good about an acquisition bid and having the confidence to remain active in a competitive sales process.

The task here wouldn’t be so challenging if there weren’t so many different things represented as AI within the market. Some companies can get very liberal in what they describe as AI.

Hiring a couple of data scientists and setting up a data warehouse is more than many companies manage to do, but it’s a long way from knitting machine learning and AI into a product or using it to bring true insights to a business. There is a large gap between companies who have achieved some mastery of AI techniques leading to incremental productivity and the rest who have not.

Parsing those differences, being able to tell whose AI is likely good and legitimately implemented from those whose isn’t can be hard during a single conversation or product demo.

But there are tells. There exist some key questions that can be asked that can very quickly give a clearer picture of how well and how far a company’s efforts have gone.

Influence related to future regulation will weigh heavily on Amazon’s decision. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Most of the predictions of where Amazon will place its second headquarters, its HQ2, have focused on the strengths and weaknesses of given cities. Airports, railways, engineers per capita, culture, hipness: all of them have been scrutinized as if each one is a critical part in a fantastically complicated algorithm whose selection will bestow 50,000 jobs upon the winning city.

The New York Times sifted all of this and predicted HQ2 would go to Denver. Some prognosticators have said that things are far simpler than this, that it all comes down to where Jeff Bezos wants to live, or from what city can Amazon elicit the most generous tax relief.

Denver’s economy has been sprinting upward, and Colorado is a fine place to ski, but it doesn’t possess the one thing that Amazon most needs. Ignore the chatter around taxes and where Bezos might already own assets. This contest can be reduced to the one thing that truly matters to almost any company, but surely an ambitious publicly-traded company: growth.

Part of my role as consultant to private equity companies is to determine what might limit a potential acquisition’s growth. That requires taking both granular views of the company’s operations and a wide view of the company’s ecosystem. Most analysts haven’t gone wide enough when examining Amazon.

What does Amazon need to grow? Engineers: yes. Smart people by the thousand: sure. Great public transit and a dense city center: only if they help snare the former two items, which they may.

Above all of this, however, Amazon’s ambitions require power. They require influence.

The limiting factor on a company that has grown into the most consequential retailer of not only stuff but also of computing power, information storage and the speed at which we can access said things isn’t smart people, developers, tax codes or cityscapes.

It’s regulation. Regulation—or the lack of it—will determine how large Amazon can get.

Top Winter Gear

All skiers are gear nerds. Whether we’re out there just for family skiing weekends, or habitually boot-packing 2,000 feet of vertical a day, we love gear.

Part of the fun of any outdoor sport revolves around gear, but skiing and winter sports have an especially intense relationship with equipment. The hardware enables the activity, of course—the boots, the bindings, the skis, the goggles. And the gear we clad ourselves in—the Gore-Tex, the down, the synthetic fill—allows us to focus on the sport itself and not be bothered with the ancillary worries of warmth and dryness.

In the name of warmth, dryness and preserving brain cells, our top winter gear for 2018:

All of the good stuff.

Arc Teryx Tauri Jacket– $699

The newer generations of synthetic fill bring skiers high insulation values with less loft, warmth when wet and a tendency to keep things the right temperature: not too hot, not too cool. With this in mind, Arc’Teryx has taken Coreloft and faced it with Gore-Tex to create a jacket that works great for in-bounds skiers riding a chair, as well as for backcountry skiers who want something windproof, warm and light in their pack for the descent. The jacket is fully tricked out to handle those mad mornings of powder laps: pit zips, powder skirt, and a deep hood that can fit the largest of ski helmets. For those who charge down the hill but don’t want to get cold on the way up, the Tauri offers an elegant solution.

Stio Environ Jacket – $425

Every serious skier requires a shell that doubles as a wearable shelter, shedding not only snow and wind, but also defending the wearer from stabs from tree branches, attacking snow drifts and wet chairs on a powder day. Stio’s Environ Jacket accomplishes these critical functions with a aplomb, with a stout three-layer construction that is thick and stout, but still more supple than some shells that have a plastic-like stiffness to them. The jacket utlizes Derzimax in its construction, which lets moisture out but keeps any from coming in. The Derzimax is seam-taped and sealed, and the hood can accomodate a big ski helmet. Pit zips and a powder skirt keep things versatile. The coat is perfect for Januarys in Jackson Hole, the hometown of Stio.

Stio Azura XT – $249

A versatile, lightweight layer filled with PrimaLoft Gold, the Azura XT is the perfect piece to put on under a shell on a cold day that may involve some bootpack hiking. The synthetic insulation keeps skiers warm, even if they’ve been sweating or taken on a little powder from the outside. It’s a perfect piece for ski trips, as it can play two roles: insulating layer, and around-town coat.

POC Auric Cut Backcountry SPIN – $220

POC’s SPIN system takes rotational forces that result from off-center impacts to a helmet and blunts the amount of harmful force that is transmitted to the head and brain using internal shearing pads, a kind of floating suspension system inside the helmet. The result is a series of helmets, including the Auric Cut Backcountry, that set a new standard in head safety for snow sports. On top of all of that, this helmet remains fairly light, includes adjustable vents, and the cutting edge styling on which POC made its name.