Marcos López de Prado
More books by Marcos López de Prado…
“Supervised learning algorithms typically require stationary features. The reason is that we need to map a previously unseen (unlabeled) observation to a collection of labeled examples, and infer from them the label of that new observation. If the features are not stationary, we cannot map the new observation to a large number of known examples. But stationary does not ensure predictive power. Stationarity is a necessary, non-sufficient condition for the high performance of an ML algorithm. The problem is, there is a trade-off between stationarity and memory. We can always make a series more stationary through differentiation, but it will be at the cost of erasing some memory, which will defeat the forecasting purpose of the ML algorithm.”
― Advances in Financial Machine Learning
― Advances in Financial Machine Learning
“Econometrics is the application of classical statistical methods to economic and financial series. The essential tool of econometrics is multivariate linear regression, an 18th-century technology that was already mastered by Gauss before 1794. Standard econometric models do not learn. It is hard to believe that something as complex as 21st-century finance could be grasped by something as simple as inverting a covariance matrix.”
― Advances in Financial Machine Learning
― Advances in Financial Machine Learning
“Many investment managers believe that the secret to riches is to implement an extremely complex ML algorithm. They are setting themselves up for a disappointment. If it was as easy as coding a state-of-the-art classifier, most people in Silicon Valley would be billionaires.”
― Advances in Financial Machine Learning
― Advances in Financial Machine Learning
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