Amit Bagaria's Blog

For most Indian readers (and a majority worldwide) who may not know this, a candidate for the U.S. presidential election is not declared as victorious based on counting of “all” votes in the 50 states and the federal District of Columbia (Washington, D.C., the nation’s capital).

The victor becomes the President-elect when the loser concedes defeat via a “‘concession speech’.

And this happens when major TV networks (ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, and NBC) and major news organisations such as AP (Associated Press) declare states in favour of one candidate or the other.

Why is a state declared in favour of one candidate? It is because the USA does not choose its President based on popular votes (in the case of the current elections, the 149+ million people who have voted). Rather, the President is chosen based on 538 ‘Electoral College‘ votes. A candidate needs 270 to win.

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These are state-wise allocations based on the population, so the largest state California has 55 Electoral College votes the second largest Texas has 38, the 3rd and 4th largest Florida and New York have 29 each, while smaller states like Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming, as well as the District of Columbia have 3 each.

If a candidate has a majority in any state when; either: (1) all or very close to all (assume 99.8%) of the popular votes in that state have been counted; or (2) when it becomes obvious that the pending uncounted votes are not going to change the outcome; TV networks declare that state in favour of the victor. One big example of this is that USA’s largest state—California—has been declared very early in favour of Biden by all networks even though only ~66% of votes have been counted, as Biden has 65.1% of the votes counted so far, compared to Trump’s 33%.

As all TV networks or news organisations want to outdo each other, they are always in a hurry to declare states in favour of one candidate or the other. In the current case, Arizona (11 Electoral College votes) was declared in favour of Joe Biden (Democratic Party or ‘Democrats‘) by some networks more than 24 hours ago, whereas others have still not declared it. As Arizona has counted ~90% and Biden has a lead of 47,058 votes, it is highly unlikely that Donald Trump (Republican Party or ‘Republicans‘) can catch up.

Based on this, Biden has 264 Electoral College votes and Trump has 214. What about the balance 60?

In Pennsylvania (20 EC votes) where ~98% of the votes have been counted, Biden is leading by 5,587 votes. Trump was leading by over 500,000 votes not that long back but Biden has stolen the state from him (Trump won in 2016), just as he has stolen Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin. I predict a Biden win here.

In Georgia (16 EC votes) where ~99% of the votes have been counted, though Biden is leading by a very thin margin of just 1,097 votes, Trump is unlikely to catch up as he was leading the state with a high margin until yesterday and Biden has overtaken him. I therefore predict that Georgia will also go to Biden.

In North Carolina (15 EC votes) where ~95% of the votes have been counted, Trump is leading by ~76,700 votes, and I predict that Trump will win this state.

In Nevada (6 EC votes) where ~89% of the votes have been counted, Biden is leading by 11,438 votes, and Trump is unlikely to catch up as most of the pending votes are from urban areas (predominantly Las Vegas) where Biden is winning with substantial margins. I predict that Nevada will also go to Biden.

In Alaska (3 EC votes) though only ~56% of the votes have been counted so far, Trump has a 63.3% vote share vs. Biden’s 33.3%. I’m surprised the state has not been called in favour of Trump already. He will definitely win this state.

So, what will be the net-net score? It will be 306 for Biden and 232 for Trump, the exact reverse of the 2016 elections, when Donald Trump won 306 and Hillary Clinton won 232.

[image error]Time for the 74½-year-old real estate billionaire from New York to pack up his bags and move back to his ‘uber-luxury’ penthouse at Trump Tower in midtown Manhattan.

Yes, I’m taking the liberty of calling the election before the American networks do. I’m pretty sure of one thing—if the Covid19 pandemic not struck, Trump would have won these elections by a huge margin.

[image error]This will be the first time since George H.W. Bush (Bush Sr.) in 1992 when a sitting President has lost an election.

Bill Clinton, George W. Bush (Bush Jr.) and Barack Obama all won a second term and governed for 8 years.

Of course, Trump will only leave The White House ‘officially’ on 20 January 2021, when President-elect Biden will get ‘inaugurated‘ and become the 46th POTUS (President of the United States). In the interim 75-odd days, Biden is expected to announce his ‘transition team’ and his ‘cabinet’ appointments.

[image error]On 20 Jan, at 78 years 2 months, Biden will be the oldest President in history on Inauguration Day. He will beat current record-holder Trump by a huge margin of 7 yrs. 7 months. Biden is a 6-term (36 years) United States Senator and a 2-term Vice President (under President Obama). He has been in American national politics for almost 48 years. Are American voters crazy to elect such an old man?

India elected Narendra Modi when he was 63.8 yrs. old; Russia chose Putin at 47.7 yrs.; Japan elected Shinzo Abe when he was just 52 (current PM Yoshihide Suga took over at 71.9 yrs. but this was because Abe resigned due to bad health); Germany elected Angela Merkel when she was just 51.4 yrs.; UK‘s Boris Johnson became PM at 55.1 yrs.; France elected Emmanuel Macron at 39.5 yrs.; Italy elected Giuseppe Conte at 53.10 yrs.; Brazil elected Jair Bolsonaro at 53.9 yrs.

[image error]It is very unlikely that he will seek a second term at the age of 82. Thus, in November 2024, we may see the then-60-year-old Kamala Devi Harris (whose mother was from Tamil Nadu) as the first woman to become POTUS. Harris is American-born, a prerequisite to contest the presidential elections. She is a first-term United States Senator from California since Jan 2017. Prior to this, she was Attorney General of California for 6 years (the first woman elected to the post); and prior to that she was District Attorney of San Francisco for 7 years.

[image error]Will Ivanka Trump contest against Kamala Harris in 2024? If not for any other reason but to avenge her father’s defeat. Maybe she will, as many people close to her say she has developed a big political ambition after having spend nearly 4 years at The White House as an advisor to President Trump.

More importantly, daddy Donald will want her to contest for sure. He even wanted her to be his running mate (VP candidate) in 2016.

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I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 235 days and have written 231 research-based articles on COVID-19 in these 235 days.

The archaic American system—which has been counting votes for 57 hours and will continue to do so for at least another 57—will result in the world knowing who the next POTUS is probably some time on Saturday. In the meantime, the COVID19 pandemic is affecting people and taking lives like never before.

Thursday, 5 November witnessed a record highest daily count of 608,550 Covid-19 cases worldwide, 7.15% higher than the previous record of 567,964 cases set on Friday, 30 October.

This was primarily due to record cases in USA (118,319), France (58,046), Italy (34,505), Poland (27,143), Spain (21,908), and Germany (21,757). Many other countries reported cases which counted amongst their five highest daily tallies.

Yes, the “second wave” in the USA and most Europe is much worse than the first. Will we see the same thing in India and South America?

As the USA still awaits the results of its presidential elections on late Friday night, it will become the first country to cross 10 million (1 crore) cases and its Texas state will become the first to cross 1 million cases.

On early Sunday morning in India, the world will cross 50 million cases. Columbia and the UK entered the 1-million-case ‘club’ in the last 8 days.

An average of 523,345 cases per day have been reported worldwide in the last 7 days, compared to 473,587 cases in the previous 7-day period (23-29 October). 

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LATEST UPDATES (at 09:00 am UTC; 6 November 2020):




The world has crossed 49.089 million (4.9 crore) cases
The global death toll is over 1.24 million (12.4 lakh)
With 8,412,528 cases and 125,044 deaths, India is No.2 in cases and No.3 in deaths in the world
India’s Maharashtra state, with 1,703,444 cases and 44,804 deaths, would rank No.5 in cases and No.6 in deaths if it were a country
3 countries have crossed 5 million (50 lakh) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
9 countries have crossed 1 million cases (up from 0 on April 3)
12 countries have crossed 750,000 (7.5 lakh) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
16 countries have crossed 500,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
31 countries have crossed 250,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
52 countries have crossed 100,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
3 countries have crossed 125,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
4 countries have crossed 90,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
12 countries have crossed 30,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
13 countries have crossed 20,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
22 countries have crossed 10,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
33 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
42 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)

In less than 9 hours from now, almost 140 million Americans will choose the 46th U.S. President. Almost 136.67 million Americans voted in the presidential elections of 2016, in the world’s second-largest democracy. In comparison, about 614.16 million people voted in the Indian Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

After Donald Trump‘s unexpected (by some) win in 2016, he remains the underdog in the 2020 presidential election – according to many U.S. polls and a survey conducted by global leader in market research Ipsos (and shown in the Statista graphic here) in 25 countries in late September and early October.

However, expectations for Trump to win a second time have risen in all countries surveyed – except for Russia, the only country where a majority of people believed in a Trump win in four years ago.

Russia – together with Poland and Hungary – remains one of few places where more people expect Trump to emerge victorious than former Vice President Joe Biden.

Both camps were almost balanced in India and the UK as well as in Australia and the Netherlands.

Overall, more people said that they weren’t sure who was going to win the White House in 2020, with about one-third of survey participants saying they could not guess the outcome of the election.

The countries which were most sure of a Joe Biden win were Mexico (also the top believer in Hillary Clinton in 2016), South Korea, Chile and Malaysia, where the lowest share (12%) believed in a Trump win. The case of South Korea and Mexico wanting Donald Trump to lose is obvious, isn’t it?

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I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 230 days and have written 230 research-based articles on COVID-19 in these 230 days.

India has become the second country (after the USA) to cross 80 lakh (8 million) Covid19 cases. This means that about 1 out of every 173 people in the country have tested positive for the disease at some time or the other.

It took 147 days for India to cross the first 5 lakh cases, 20 days to cross 10 lakh, 12 days to cross 15 lakh, 9 days to cross 20 lakh, 8 days each to cross 25 lakh and 30 lakh, 7 days to cross 35 lakh, 6 days each to cross 40 lakh and 45 lakh, 5 days to cross 50 lakh, 6 days each to cross 55, 60 lakh and 65 lakh cases, 7 days to cross 70 lakh, 8 days to cross 75 lakh, and now 10 days to cross 80 lakh cases.

These numbers show that, if the pandemic was riding a bullet train in the journey from 10 lakh to 50 lakh cases, it  has moved to Rajdhani Express since then.

In the last 14 days, India added average 53,698 cases per day. The average has come down substantially from the peak of 91,646 in the two weeks from 6 to 20 September.

In the last few days, many of my readers have messaged me asking if the slowdown is a result of either less testing or the state governments fudging figures.

Although the question about whether the positive case numbers are being fudged can only be answered by PMNarendra Modi, Home MinisterAmit Shah, Health MinisterDr. Harsh Vardhan and the CMs of the states which have greatly reduced cases in the last 38 days (since 20 September), India has certainly not reduced testing. An average of 11,00,701 tests per day have been done in the last 38 days, compared to average 9,68,826 tests per days in the 38 days prior to that.

The National Capital Region has reported >4.57 lakh cases, of which >3.64 lakh are from Delhi alone.
Mumbai Metropolitan Region has reported >4.13 lakh cases, of which >2.52 lakh are from Mumbai alone. Bengaluru Metropolitan Region has reported >3.53 lakh cases. Chennai Metropolitan Region has reported >2.18 lakh cases.

About 88% of cases in India have recovered, which is higher than the global recovery rate of about 74.8%. India’s Fatality Rate (percentage of deaths) at 1.52% is much lower than the global Fatality Rate of 2.79%. On 1 June, India’s Fatality Rate and the world’s was 5.95%. This probably means that doctors worldwide have learned how to treat patients better over the course of the last 4½  months.

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LATEST UPDATES (at 2:50 pm UTC; 28 October 2020):




The world has crossed 44.393 million (4.43 crore) cases
The global death toll is over 1.174 million (11.74 lakh)
With 80,01,513 cases and 1,20,111 deaths, India is No.2 in cases and No.3 in deaths in the world
India’s Maharashtra state, with 16,54,028 cases and 43,463 deaths, would rank No.4 in cases and No.6 in deaths if it were a country
3 countries have crossed 5,000,000 (50 lakh) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
8 countries have crossed 1,000,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
11 countries have crossed 750,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
15 countries have crossed 500,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
29 countries have crossed 250,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
48 countries have crossed 100,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
DEATH COUNT:
2 countries have crossed 150,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
4 countries have crossed 89,500 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
11 countries have crossed 30,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
13 countries have crossed 20,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
21 countries have crossed 10,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
32 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
39 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)

According to a ranking of data by Bloomberg (a global leader in business and financial data, news and insight) published on Visual Capitalist, and shown on this graphic by leading provider of market and consumer data Statista, three American families, one Saudi and one Indian family top the ranking of the world’s wealthiest.

The top 2 – The Waltons and the Mars family – deal in consumer goods. The Waltons are the owners of Walmart, the world’s largest retailer in sales.

The Mars family owns Mars, Inc., the manufacturers of iconic chocolate/candy and chewing gum brands such as M&M’s, Snickers, Orbit, Milky Way, Twix, Extra, Skittles, and Wrigley’s; pet care products; and food products such as GOMO Dal Crunchies which are designed to help close nutritional gaps of school-age children in India.

The No.3 ranked Kochs own Koch Industries, an industrial conglomerate which is amongst the largest American manufacturers of ethanol oil; electronic components; glass; carpets; plant nutrients; fabric for military combat uniforms; plywood, gypsum boards and fibreglass sheathing; lighting solutions; cattle feed; aerodynamic systems for automotive grilles; critical components for medical devices; automated towel dispensers; paper products; filtration equipment for industrial, scientific and domestic use; asphalt products for roads; and fibrefills for pillows, mattresses and comforters.

Among all these business empire owners, the Saudi Arabian Al Saud family is the exception. The royal family that rules Saudi Arabia is the richest family of monarchs in the world, largely due to their country’s large oil reserves.

The Ambani family, owners of the Reliance Industries conglomerate, comes in rank 5 with a fortune of more than $81 billion. As most Indian readers would know, the Mukesh Ambani-run Reliance’s main businesses are oil and petrochemicals; JIO mobile services; retail; and textiles. As the Indian economy continues to grow  faster than the U.S. economy, the day is not very far when the Ambanis will cross the Al Said family, the Koch family and the Mars family.

French luxury brands Hermès and Chanel also placed their owners in the top 10, while Germany’s wealthy have made it big with different endeavors. The Boehringer/Von Baumbach family (rank 9) runs pharma company Boehringer Ingelheim, while the Albrecht family (rank 10) is famous for their discount store Aldi.

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According to an annual poll by leading American analytics and advisory firm Gallup, as displayed in this graphic by leading provider of market and consumer data Statista, with the U.S. presidential elections just 6 days away, approval of U.S. President Donald Trump is varying widely across Asia, with Mongolia (62%) and the Philippines (58%) exhibiting the highest level of support.

Only 34% of Indians approved of Trump‘s leadership. Compare this with a whopping 78% approval rating for Indian PM Narendra Modi in an India Today magazine poll of August 2020. Yes, Donald Trump would definitely not win if he was sanding for an election in India.

Other Asian countries with a majority of people approving of the U.S. president were Nepal (54%) and Myanmar (53%). The least support came out of Laos (8%).

Overall, the world disapproved of President Trump: His administration’s global approval rating was at a median of 33%, compared with a disapproval rating of 42%. Median approval was lowest in Europe at 24%, followed by Asia at 32%. Approval grew in the Americas to 34% this year and was highest in Africa at a median 52%. The highest approval ratings in Europe came out of Kosovo at 82%, followed by Albania at 67%. In the Americas, Dominicans were most supportive of Trump, with 56% saying they approved of U.S. leadership, while in Africa, Togo (69%) and Niger (68%) showed Trump the most support.

Within the U.S., Trump’s approval rating since he was sworn in as President over 45 months ago, has ranged from a low of 35% on 29 October 2017 (almost exactly three years ago), to a high of 49% on 16 February 2020, as well as on 22 March 2020 and 13 May 2020. His latest rating on 28 September 2020 was 46%, which means that the 3rd November presidential election will be close.

Narendra Modi is amongst the 3 most popular democratically elected leaders in a home country.

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I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 226 days and have written 228 research-based articles on COVID-19 in these 226 days.

Friday 23 October had the record highest daily count of 490,059 Covid-19 cases worldwide, slightly higher than the previous record of 479,476 cases on the previous day (22 October).

This was primarily due to record cases in USA (its highest tally of 81,210 cases); France (its highest tally of 42,032); UK (its 4th highest tally of 20,530); Spain (its 2nd highest tally of 19,851); Italy (its highest tally of 19,143); Russia (its highest tally of 17,340); Belgium (its highest tally of 16,746); Czechia (its highest tally of 15,258); Poland (its highest tally of 13,632); Germany (its highest tally of 13,476); and Netherlands (its highest tally of 9,996). Many other countries reported either their highest, 2nd highest or 3rd highest numbers on that day.

An average of 409,271 cases per day have been reported worldwide in the last 7 days. Is this what experts call “flattening of the curve?”

Spain, Argentina and France have entered the 1-million-case ‘club’ in the last 8 days, and Colombia will become the 8th country to enter this club today.

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LATEST UPDATES (at 07:45 am UTC; 24 October 2020):




The world has crossed 42.521 million (4.252 crore) cases
The global death toll is over 1.15 million (11.5 crore)
With 7,814,662 cases and 117,992 deaths, India is No.2 in cases and No.3 in deaths in the world
India’s Maharashtra state, with 1,632,544 cases and 43,015 deaths, would rank No.4 in cases and No.6 in deaths if it were a country
3 countries have crossed 5,000,000 (50 lakh) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
7 countries have crossed 1,000,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
11 countries have crossed 750,000 (7.5 lakh) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
13 countries have crossed 500,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
27 countries have crossed 250,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
48 countries have crossed 100,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
2 countries have crossed 150,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
4 countries have crossed 88,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
10 countries have crossed 30,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
13 countries have crossed 20,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
20 countries have crossed 10,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
32 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
38 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)

I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 220 days and have written 228 research-based articles on COVID-19 in these 220 days.

The reason I’ve not posted for three is because I have been busy trying to complete my 11th book, which I’m hoping will be my best nonfiction book yet. Because of this same reason, I had said three weeks ago that I will be very sporadic with posts over the next 45-60 days. I am now pleased to inform you that I hope to complete the book in the next 7-10 days. It has been a 15-month journey writing this book.

India has become the second country (after the USA) to cross 75 lakh (7.5 million) Covid19 cases. This means that about 1 out of every 185 people in the country have tested positive for the disease at some time or the other.

It took 147 days for India to cross the first 5 lakh cases, 20 days to cross 10 lakh, 12 days to cross 15 lakh, 9 days to cross 20 lakh, 8 days each to cross 25 lakh and 30 lakh, 7 days to cross 35 lakh, 6 days each to cross 40 lakh and 45 lakh, 5 days to cross 50 lakh, 6 days each to cross 55, 60 lakh and 65 lakh cases, 7 days to cross 70 lakh, and now 8 days to cross 75 lakh cases.

In the last 14 days, India added average 67,522 cases per day or 20% of worldwide cases. The USA added average 52,401 cases per day during these 14 days, which means that India is adding 15,121 more cases daily than USA. If this trend continues over the next few week, India will overtake the USA in 57 days (by 14 December), much later than I had predicted three weeks ago. This is because India’s average new cases have come down substantially from the peak of 91,646 in the two weeks from 6 to 20 September.

The National Capital Region (sometimes also referred to as Greater Delhi) has reported >4.16 lakh cases, of which >3.31 lakh are from Delhi city (state) alone. The Mumbai Metropolitan Region has reported >4 lakh cases, of which >2.4 lakh are from Mumbai city alone. The Bengaluru Metropolitan Region has reported >3.23 lakh cases. The Pune Metropolitan Region has reported >2.74 lakh cases. The Chennai Metropolitan Region has reported >2.16 lakh cases.

About 88% of cases in India have recovered, which is higher than the global recovery rate of about 74.8%. India’s Fatality Rate (percentage of deaths) at 1.52% is much lower than the global Fatality Rate of 2.79%. On 1 June, India’s Fatality Rate and the world’s was 5.95%. This probably means that doctors worldwide have learned how to treat patients better over the course of the last 4½  months.

Do PM Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Health Minister Dr. Harsh Vardhan—as well as CMs of states—have a strategy to further reduce the daily new cases in India (without reducing the daily testing rate), as several other countries have done?

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LATEST UPDATES (at 3:45 pm UTC; 18 October 2020):




The world has crossed 40.125 million (4.01 crore) cases
The global death toll is over 1.116 million (11.16 crore)
With 75,32,855 cases and 1,14,455 deaths, India is No.2 in cases and No.3 in deaths in the world
India’s Maharashtra state, with 15,95,381 cases and 42,115 deaths, would rank No.4 in cases and No.6 in deaths if it were a country
4 countries have crossed 5,000,000 (50 lakh) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
5 countries have crossed 1,000,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
10 countries have crossed 750,000 (7.5 lakh) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
13 countries have crossed 500,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
25 countries have crossed 250,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
45 countries have crossed 100,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
2 countries have crossed 150,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
4 countries have crossed 85,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
10 countries have crossed 30,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
13 countries have crossed 20,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
19 countries have crossed 10,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
32 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
38 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)

I have been doing Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 220 days and have written 227 research-based articles on COVID-19 in these 220 days.

The reason I’ve not posted for three is because I have been busy trying to complete my 11th book, which I’m hoping will be my best nonfiction book yet. Because of this same reason, I had said three weeks ago that I will be very sporadic with posts over the next 45-60 days. I am now pleased to inform you that I hope to complete the book in the next 7-10 days. It has been a 15-month journey writing this book.  

Our planet crossed the milestone of 40 million (4 crore) Covid-19 cases.  This means that about 1 in every 195 people in the world have tested positive for the pandemic.

It took 121 days for the world to get to the first 5 million (50 lakh) cases, 36 days to 10 million (1 crore), 24 days to 15 million, 19 days to 20 million, 20 days to 25 million, 18 days each to 30 million and 35 million, and now only 15 days to 40 million (4 crore) cases.

An average of 348,955 cases per day have been reported in the last 7 days. This means that we are likely to cross 50 million (5 crore) cases again in 15 days. Is this what experts call “the flattening of the curve?”

Last Friday (16 October) had the highest daily count of 413,175 cases, 8% higher than the previous record of 382, 436 cases on the previous day (15 October). This was primarily due to record cases in France (its 4th highest tally of 25,086); Argentina (its 2nd highest tally of 16,546); UK (its 4th highest tally of 15,650); Russia (its highest tally of 15,150); Spain (its 2nd highest tally of 12,169); Czechia (its highest tally of 11,102); Belgium (its 2nd highest tally of 10,448); Italy (its 2nd highest tally of 10,010); Netherlands (its 2nd highest tally of 7,984); Germany (its highest tally of 7,976); and Poland (its 3rd highest tally of 7,705). Many other countries reported either their highest, 2nd highest or 3rd highest numbers on that day. Many countries, including some named above, reported their highest daily tallies yesterday (17 Oct).

About 52.7% of the cases are from the Top 3 countries (in number of cases) — USA, India and Brazil; ~69.9% from the Top 10 countries; and ~81.3% from the 24 countries which have reported over 300,000 cases.

Approximately 31.1% of the cases have been reported from Asia, ~25% from North America, ~22.4% from South America, and ~17.3% from Europe. 

About 2.8% of those affected have succumbed to the deadly disease. The Fatality Rate (percentage of those dying from the disease) has been continuously falling for several weeks. About 30% of the deaths are from North America, ~25% from South America, ~21.4% from Europe, and ~20% from Asia. Asia probably has a disproportionately low fatality rate because of its low average age of residents.

Though the Coronavirus Pandemic is unlikely to reach anywhere close to the infection or death count of the Spanish Flu or HIV/AIDS pandemics, the number of lab confirmed COVID-19 cases is already more than 81.4 times higher than the number of lab-confirmed H1N1 Swine Flu cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO).

The global death count from the COVID19 pandemic is already more than 60.4 times higher than the number of lab-confirmed H1N1 Swine Flu deaths reported to WHO and is already almost 1.94 times its maximum estimated death count of 575,000.

READ THESE RECENT POSTS:

Why USA is USAma?

At 30 million, what do the numbers tell?

India overtakes Brazil – like I predicted 6 days ago

Narendra Modi becomes longest-serving non-Congress Prime Minister of India

Ram Mandir in Ayodhya after 491 years

Indian Air Force gets first 5 RAFALEs

Did my article cause panic in some state governments?

Fact Check: Are women leaders managing Covid better than male leaders?

The Russian Spy

Does Rahul Gandhi Have Memory Loss?

Indians Rising in Foreign Governments

The Army Chief vs. the Prime Minister

Why Did Chinese Troops Enter India?

Grow Up Mr. Rahul Gandhi — The Enemy is NOT Modi; it IS China

LATEST UPDATES (at 09:45 am UTC; 18 October 2020):




The world has crossed 40.007 million (4 crore) cases
The global death toll is over 1.115 million (11.15 crore)
With 74,94,746 cases and 1,14,078 deaths, India is No.2 in cases and No.3 in deaths in the world
India’s Maharashtra state, with 15,86,321 cases and 41,965 deaths, would rank No.4 in cases and No.6 in deaths if it were a country
4 countries have crossed 5,000,000 (50 lakh) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
5 countries have crossed 1,000,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
10 countries have crossed 750,000 (7.5 lakh) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
13 countries have crossed 500,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
25 countries have crossed 250,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
45 countries have crossed 100,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
2 countries have crossed 150,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
4 countries have crossed 85,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
10 countries have crossed 30,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
13 countries have crossed 20,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
19 countries have crossed 10,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
32 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
38 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)

I have been conducting Data Analytics Studies on the Coronavirus Pandemic for 199 days and have written 225 research-based blog posts on COVID-19 in these 199 days.

The reason I’ve not posted for 10 days is because I have been busy trying to complete my 11th book, which I’m hoping will be my best nonfiction book yet. Because of this same reason, I will be very sporadic with posts over the next 45-60 days.

India has become the second country (after USA) to cross 60 lac (6 million) Covid19 cases. With 60,50,875 cases, about 1 out of every 229 people in the country have tested positive for the disease at some time or the other.

India is now just 28-30 days away from crossing the USA to become the country with the most cases.

It took 169 days for India to cross the first 10 lac cases, 22 days to cross 20 lac, 16 days to cross 30 lac, 13 days to cross 40 lac,11 days to cross 50 lac, and now 12 days to cross 60 lac cases.

In the last 14 days, India reported an average of 88,485 cases per day. USA has added an average of 41,452 cases per day during these 14 days, which means that India is adding 47,033 more cases daily than USA.

In the past seven days, India recorded an average of 84,622 cases per day, or 29.8% of worldwide cases. India has 17.7% of the world’s population.

India’s highest daily tally was 978,859 cases on 16 September.

The National Capital Region (sometimes also referred to as Greater Delhi) has reported over 3.39 lac cases, of which more than 2.71 lac are from Delhi city (state) alone. The Greater Mumbai Metropolitan Region has reported more than 3.24 lac cases, of which more than 1.98 lac are from Mumbai city alone. Greater Bengaluru has reported over 2.31 lac cases. Greater Chennai has reported over 1.77 lac cases.

About 81.5% of cases in India have recovered, which is higher than the global recovery rate of 73.87%. India’s Fatality Rate (percentage of deaths) at 1.57% is much lower than the global Fatality Rate of 3.01%. India’s Fatality Rate was 2.83% on 1 June and the world’s was 5.95%. This probably means that doctors worldwide have learned how to treat patients better over the course of the last two months.

Do PM Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, Health Minister Dr. Harsh Vardhan —as well as CMs of states — have any strategy/ies to start reducing the daily new cases in India, as several other countries — including USA and Brazil — have done?

READ THESE RECENT POSTS:

World surpasses 1 million (10 lac) Covid-19 deaths milestone

Why USA is USAma? At 30 million, what do the numbers tell?

India Will Have the Most Coronavirus Cases Before Dussehra

India overtakes Brazil – like I predicted 6 days ago

Narendra Modi becomes longest-serving non-Congress Prime Minister of India

Ram Mandir in Ayodhya after 491 years

Indian Air Force gets first 5 RAFALEs

Did my article cause panic in some state governments?

Which Indian States are managing Coronavirus well and which are not?

Fact Check: Are women leaders managing Covid better than male leaders?

The Russian Spy

Does Rahul Gandhi Have Memory Loss?

Indians Rising in Foreign Governments

The Army Chief vs. the Prime Minister

Why Did Chinese Troops Enter India?

Grow Up Mr. Rahul Gandhi — The Enemy is NOT Modi; it IS China

LATEST UPDATES (at 6:00 pm UTC; 27 September 2020):




The world has crossed 33.212 million (3.321 crore) cases
The global death toll is over 1,000,580
With 60,50,875 cases and 95,075 deaths, India is No.2 in cases and No.3 in deaths in the world
India’s Maharashtra state, with 13,21,176 cases and 35,191 deaths, would rank No.4 in cases and No.7 in deaths if it were a country
4 countries have crossed 1,000,000 (10 lac) cases (up from 0 on April 3)
6 countries have crossed 750,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
11 countries have crossed 500,000 cases (up from 0 on April 3)
23 countries have crossed 250,000 cases (up from 1 on April 3)
38 countries have crossed 100,000 cases (up from 3 on April 3)
2 countries have crossed 140,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
4 countries have crossed 75,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
11 countries have crossed 25,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
17 countries have crossed 10,000 deaths (up from 0 on April 3)
29 countries have crossed 5,000 deaths (up from 5 on April 3)
34 countries have crossed 2,500 deaths (up from 7 on April 3)