Scott Edwin Williams's Blog

Faced with the rapidly approaching end of 2023, I paused to reflect on everything that’s happened in my life. The result was a surprise, because while much of this year were a whirlwind, some early events seem so long ago I'd almost forgotten them!

For instance, in January the podcast I host with my friend CJ (AKA Elwood Scott) What's My Age Again? was born. The theme of the podcast is to discuss issues face by people over 50, and we've spent a year delving into those topics.  

In March my first book, Lightbulb Moments in Human History: From Cave to Colosseum was published. It’s astounding (and almost scary) to note that while this was the culmination of a lifelong dream, by December that accomplishment had almost slipped my mind.

About the same time, Chronos Books accepted my manuscript for Lightbulb Moments in Human History: From Peasants to Periwigs, the second book in the series (due for release in April 2024, but available for preorder now).

Much of the next six months involved promotion, appearing on podcasts, publishing book excerpts on ancient-origins.net, plugging my book on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter/X, and even TikTok. There’s really no depth too low!

Around August, I began my collaboration with Joel Hines on the audiobook of Lightbulb Moments in Human History: From Cave to Colosseum, which was a real labor of love. I’m very proud of the result. 

On a side note, Spotify analytics indicate that among many other listeners, two people have listened to my book SEVEN TIMES each! If either of those two people are reading this, thanks!

Then in October, I went overseas for the first time in many years. I wrote about my China trip in the last newsletter, so I won’t retrace old ground. However, for those wondering, it took three weeks for me to test negative to Covid. Even though the first week of Covid was equivalent to a severe cold, it really did a number on my lungs. The next couple of weeks were quite challenging. I’m almost 100% now, but sometimes I doubted I’d get back to full health. 

Despite all that, I’ve well-and-truly caught the travel bug, and am planning a trip to Europe next year. Hopefully, no Covid this time!

Back onto the podcast, in one of our final acts of the year, CJ and I have decided to put What's My Age Again? on hiatus and spin the popular segment What's My Beer Again? into its own show. So from now on, CJ and I will drink beer and chat about it... which is pretty much what we did anyway, but without the semi-serious pretext!

What could possibly go wrong?

My partner and I had been traveling around China for 11 days, and it has been relatively stress free for me (ostensibly because she speaks Mandarin). However, she came down with a rotten cold a few days ago and really needed to recharge her batteries.

So I decided to let her sleep in and visit Tiananmen Square on my own (she'd lived in Beijing, so wasn't going to miss anything). It was only ten minutes taxi ride from our hotel, so it wasn't too great a challenge, particularly with Didi, the Chinese version of Uber. Before I left, I did a little research and found out something that put a damper on my plans.

It turns out foreigners wanting to go to Tiananmen Square must register their interest the day before attending. This was a slight problem, because I was planning to leave in thirty minutes. But it was too late to change my master plan now, so I continued the early morning solo trip, expecting only to peek into the Square from a distance.

Many of you will recall Tiananmen Square as venue for the 1989 pro-democracy protests, and have the vivid image of a lone guy defying a tank. Well, it was the same place, but the vibe was completely different. I was the only foreigner I saw when I was there, and 99.9% of people in the Square were patriotic Chinese nationals.

But I'm getting ahead of myself.

My driver dropped my at 7 am, into an area as close as taxis can get. Things didn't look promising, as all I could see was a brick wall topped with razor-wire.

Initial views were not promising,

Yet, as I walked, the Forbidden City popped its head over the wall. Even from outside, it was impressive. Nevertheless, for about fifteen minutes, I thought that this tantalising glimpse was all I would see.

For a while, things looked grim

I walked in ever decreasing circles, seeming to zero-in on Tiananmen Square and could see more and more of the Forbidden City the closer I got. I passed a number of smartly-dressed soldiers standing stock still (beefeater style, but with modern uniforms), as well as a number of check points manned by police.

Eventually, I decided to try my luck at a checkpoint. What's the worst that could happen? Surely, they could only tell me to go away! Amazingly, after giving my passport the briefest glance (identification is required to enter most public events), the cop let me in.

So far, so good. I was closer to my goal.

I walked for a while and encountered a second check point. But after second passport check, I was again allowed to continue. By now, I thought I was home free: Two passport checks and no one had asked if I actually had permission to be there. After my incredulity passed, I had a chance to appreciate my surroundings.

Tiananmen Square is Herculean in scope, from the Forbidden City (no one calls it that in China) to Mao’s tomb, giant sculptures of the workers, the Great Hall of the People, the National Museum of China, large columns, marching soldiers, to the simply enormous open square itself.

Then there were the people.

Tiananmen Square was a sea of humanity, even though it was only 7:30am. Now, when it comes to estimating crowds, I'm about as reliable as Donald Trump, but there had to be quite a few thousand people. By this time I was feeling a little like Donald Trump too, because I'd gotten away with a crime... I was trespassing in the Mecca of the Chinese Communist Party, but that wasn't last for long.

It was near Mao’s tomb that the jig was up. I was challenged by a third cop, this time I was asked (in pretty good English) words to the effect of “Are you alone and, by the way, do you actually have a booking?”

Well yes, sir. I am alone and - er - no; I don't have a booking.

While I had done nothing wrong by Australian standards, I was slightly concerned by my predicament I wasn't in Australia any more. The rules were clear: no foreigners without permission.

The cop was polite, but thorough. Unlike his lax mate, he examined my passport carefully, for five seconds maybe, which is a LONG time when you're a foreigner who thinks you've committed a crime

In the end, he handed my passport back, gave me jovial, but firm warning and was allowed me to continue my stroll.

All-in-all, I thoroughly recommend this trip to anyone who has the opportunity.

Just remember to book in the day before.

Me, just after my run-in with the police officer. Mao's Mausoleum in the background.

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Anyone who’s listened to the podcast I do with my friend CJ (What's My Age Again?) will know I recently passed a milestone birthday. You wouldn’t have to have been listening closely to understand that I was dragged kicking and screaming over that milestone.

I didn’t like staring sixty in the face, and I hated the fact there was nothing I could do about it

Age shall not weary them...?

Sixty years of age was significant for me. In my state of New South Wales, it allows me to apply for a ‘Seniors Card’ which is problematic in itself if you don’t self-identify as a ‘senior citizen’! And in truth, I don’t. The whole raison d'etre of the podcast (which is ostensibly about aging) is that neither CJ nor myself, or in fact, many of our friends and acquaintances, see themselves as ‘old’.

Of course, when you rail against aging as publicly as I have, it doesn’t take long for well-meaning people to roll out all the platitudes: Age is just a number; You’re only as old as you feel; or my personal (but not very PC) favorite, you’re only as old as the woman you feel.

The whole experience has been extensively covered on the podcast (links below) in a much more amusing way than I think I could muster right now. I’m a month into my sixties and nothing has changed… but in a very real way, everything has changed.

A case in point: I went to the doctor for a check up today, and her demeanor seemed to be greatly altered since my last visit… she did a calculation that she’d never done before (my blood pressure X my cholesterol X half the number you first thought of, or something like that) told her that there was an 8% chance I’d develop heart disease in the next five years.

By all accounts, that result wasn’t too bad. However, the fact I was now the subject of such calculations made me feel older. Much older.

Still, as I said the CJ on the podcast, the only thing worse than turning sixty is the alternative.

☠️

https://open.spotify.com/show/2XsL83BhawGlHyluOm6Uov?si=2ba15319fd73458e

https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/whats-my-age-again/id1662240535

In my last blog, I wrote about my experiments with AI illustration. I waxed lyrical about how it's helped me create appropriate illustrations for the latest Lightbulb Moments in Human History book. In short, it’s been a godsend.

In the same piece, I smugly stated that I would “draw the line at letting ChatGPT do the writing for me.” That was because I thought ChatGPT, for all its amazing features, was “questionable.”

The following is an illustration of exactly how questionable it can be.

The other day I was experimenting with ChatGPT researching the seminal economist Adam Smith for a chapter on the Enlightenment. And, as is my wont, I decided to prompt ChatGPT for an amusing story about the famous Scotsman.

Along with some rather lame anecdotes about “invisible hands” and Smith’s renowned absent-mindedness, ChatGPT turned up this little gem:

Smith was fond of having a pet rooster as a companion during his writing sessions. The rooster, named Dionysius, would perch on Smith’s shoulder as he worked. It is said that Smith found the crowing of the rooster to be a source of inspiration.

Upon reading this, my eyes lit up. I was already formulating jokes about Adam Smith and his inspirational cock, when my brain suddenly screeched to a halt.

Wait.

This was too good to be true. I had to check it out.

It didn’t take long for me to find there was absolutely no truth to it. Not a skerrick. As far as could be ascertained from the biographical information, it was unclear if Smith had even seen a rooster, let alone had a pet one that helped him write The Wealth of Nations.

"Adam Smith" and his pet "rooster" (Midjourney)

Now, as I wrote in the last blog, I wouldn’t stoop so low as to let ChatGPT write for me, but I’m now extremely wary of its veracity in general.

But, hey, I thought, this might make a good story for the blog, so I decided to create a matching AI illustration in Midjourney. If I was looking for something equally absurd as the anecdote, I’d come to the right place. I reproduce it, without further comment, herewith.

Enjoy.

In the twentieth century, two Americans made observations which highlighted the frightening growth of humanity’s collective learning.

In 1965, Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, made a prediction that came to be known as Moore’s Law. Moore prophesied that the number of transistors on a microchip would double approximately every two years, leading to a sharp decrease in the cost per transistor and an exponential increase in computing power. This has contributed to an explosion in collective learning and been a driving force behind the rapid development of digital technology and artificial intelligence.

American polymath Buckminster Fuller conceived the Knowledge Doubling Curve, which highlighted the acceleration of human knowledge over time. Fuller estimated that up until 1900, knowledge doubled roughly every century. As the twentieth century rolled on, the Knowledge Doubling Curve picked up pace until and according to some estimates, human knowledge now doubles every twelve hours.

The Knowledge Doubling Curve examines the broader expansion of human understanding across all fields, an acceleration can be attributed to various factors, including technological advancements, improved communication, and better access to information. The growth of human knowledge in one area can lead to breakthroughs in others, creating a positive feedback loop that accelerates overall progress.

Some experts believe that, due to the physical limitations miniaturization of microchips, Moore’s Law is a thing of the past. If true, this could also put the brakes on the Knowledge Doubling Curve. But that doesn’t take the current explosion in generative AI into account. At the time of writing in mid-2023, humanity has become enamored of ChatGPT, Dall-E, Midjourney, and other such tools.

Prompt: Generative AI art stealing people's jobs

I’m not immune to this revolution.

When I wrote Lightbulb Moments in Human History: From Cave to Colosseum in 2021, I didn't use generative AI. All illustrations were stock photographs purchased from Adobe Stock or iStock, and edited in Adobe Photoshop. My research was mostly what now passes for ‘old school’: hard-copy books, the internet, and Google Scholar. A little generative AI art found its way into Lightbulb Moments in Human History: From Peasants to Periwigs in 2022, but my research methods remained largely the same.

Fast forward to mid-2023, and my writing process has evolved thanks to generative AI. Almost all illustrations (including those on the cover of the book) have been generated by specific prompts I crafted for Midjourney. And while some of my initial research is being done in ChatGPT, I was loath to trust it, because in my opinion it’s still questionable. More traditional methods of study still make up the bulk of my historical analysis.

I certainly drew the line at letting ChatGPT do the writing for me. I think it’s cheating, and where’s the fun in that?

The month since my last blogpost could hardly have been more consequential in the life of an author...

Lightbulb Moments in Human History: from Cave to Colosseum has been released, and given this is the culmination of a long-held dream, I'm understandably elated.

Added to that, I've seen the proofs of the cover of Book II, Lightbulb Moments in Human History: from Peasants to Periwigs, and am awaiting the page proofs. It's all happening!

As far as sales go on Book 1, it's difficult to say until I get the first full month's sales figures. There are a few encouraging signs, so fingers crossed.

Of course, all this excitement has consequences... I feel like I've been living on my nerves for months. I frequently have to restrain myself from googling myself like a malignant narcissist, looking for new reviews and book mentions. It's a problem!

I'm hoping to get back into writing Book III (Working title: Lightbulb Moments in Human History: from Revolution to Evolution), so hopefully that will take my mind off things.

Till next time!

It's been a busy few weeks with the book launch and all... I have nothing to say this month, other than thanks to all the people who purchased (or are considering purchasing) my book. I'll be back to usual next month!

By the next blog, Lightbulb Moments in Human History: From Cave to Colosseum will have been released on an unsuspecting world!

It's the biggest step so far in a journey that began in January 2022, when it was accepted for publication. To be honest, it almost seems like an anti-climax as it feels like it's already out in the world.

It will be released on Friday 24 February in the UK and a week later in the US and Australia.

Strangely, while one book is finally emerging, book two, Lightbulb Moments in Human History: From Peasants to Periwigs, is at the publishers, about to be formatted for printing.

It's quite a surreal experience going through both these two quite different processes simultaneously, but I guess that could be the rhythm of my life for the foreseeable future, as my aim is to have book three ready early next year (about the same time as the release of book two)!

What's My Age Again?

In other news, the What's My Age Again? podcast about life after 50 I've recorded with my friend CJ released two episodes during January. This was to attempt to launch the podcast successfully, but we always intended to revert to a monthly release schedule.

The podcast has been received warmly (if not rapturously!), but we are hoping for a gradual increase in listenership!

Next month...

Next month I'll have some idea of how the book release has gone. If you purchase the book, I hope you enjoy it. If you enjoy it, I'd love it if you would please leave a review wherever you purchased it.

It’s pretty much impossible to agree with Elon Musk about anything nowadays.

Since buying Twitter for $44 billion dollars, Musk has managed to polarize public opinion like few others. He tweeted dangerous lies about COVID-19, wreaked havoc in his own social media company, tanked shares in Tesla, and promoted baseless right-wing conspiracy theories. If that’s not alienating enough, multi-billionaires just aren’t super popular in a world where most people are struggling to make ends meet. Quite simply, Elon is on the nose.

However, there’s one topic on which Mr Musk and I definitely see eye-to-eye: stopping humanity falling victim to ‘the Great Filter’.

"We must pass the Great Filter"

Elon Musk, June 2020

‘The Great Filter’ is a term that may require some unpacking, but before I do, we need to back up a second and look at a couple of basic concepts. As it stands, all humans (but for a handful aboard the International Space Station) live on Earth, making humans at risk of a meteor impact that wipes us out like the dinosaurs. While such a catastrophe is highly unlikely, every year there’s a 1 in 500,000 chance of an Extinction Level Event (ELE). Movies such as Armageddon and Deep Impact traded on this fear. But it’s not just meteors. There are other existential threats, such as climate change, and the potential for a nuclear doomsday. So even while the odds are against our imminent destruction, we have all our human eggs in one basket.

For all his myriad faults (please, don’t get me started), Elon has a plan to change that. He wants to colonize Mars, an act that would effectively ‘back-up’ humanity in the event of an ELE. This would save us from one component of The Great Filter.

The Great Filter

The idea of the Great Filter is based on two main concepts: one is the ‘Drake Equation,’ a mathematical formula which estimates that many intelligent civilizations (possibly in the hundreds of thousands.) exist in our galaxy. Given this high figure, physicist Enrico Fermi asked the $64,000 question: "Where are all the fickin’ aliens?” (yes, I’m paraphrasing, but that’s the basic idea). The scarcity of evidence for ETs in a universe supposedly brimming with them is known as the Fermi Paradox.

Fermi’s observation led people to speculate as to why we haven’t heard from all the aliens that are casually zooming around our local star cluster. Maybe the galactic distances are just too great. Maybe we’re the most advanced civilization out there, and we’re waiting for others to catch up. Or maybe the aliens simply don’t like us. There are more reasons too numerous to list here. For our purposes, the most pertinent assertion is that these civilizations haven’t passed the Great Filter and, therefore, no longer exist.

So, what is this Great Filter?

If it helps, you can think of the Great Filter as a cosmic Donald Trump weeding out unpromising civilizations from The Apprentice: Galactic Edition: “You’re a loser. You’re fired.” Instant elimination. At this point, I must point out that the Great Filter isn’t human, or even sentient… in other words, it’s exactly like Donald Trump.

Attempted jokes aside, the Great Filter is a thought experiment that suggests there are a series of barriers stopping intelligent life in the universe developing beyond a certain point. We’ve already managed to negotiate a few of these filters. For instance, there probably aren’t many planets suited to life as we know it, but luckily we’re on one of the good ones. It’s also likely that making the jump from simple, multicellular life to intelligent, self-aware life is also rare and unusual, and we’ve managed that too.

But we shouldn’t pat ourselves on the back just yet.

There are other potential filters that prevent intelligent civilizations from achieving certain milestones, such as developing the ability to colonize other planets. If we can’t expand humanity beyond our own planet, we then become susceptible to other filters: Extinction Level Events like planet-killing meteors, an out-of-control greenhouse effect, or the old favorite, suicide by nukes.

There might even be other filters humans are simply too stupid to understand.

The Great Filter hypothesis also suggests there are hurdles to be overcome for a civilization to become technologically sophisticated enough to be detectable by other civilizations. If so, the lack of evidence of intelligent extraterrestrial life may be due to most civilizations never reaching this level because they were filtered out of existence.

It is important to note that the concept of the Great Filter is still very much a hypothesis. However, it serves as a useful way of thinking about the apparent lack of intelligent extraterrestrial life and the Fermi paradox, and it has helped to stimulate further research and debate on this topic.

So Can Humans Survive the Great Filter?

Er, yes… Maybe. But we still have a long way to go to ensure we don’t destroy ourselves through apathy, ignorance, and cockiness.

Unfortunately, one reason humans may fail to escape the Great Filter is, paradoxically, toxic billionaires like Elon Musk himself. Yes, he’s doing his part to save humanity with SpaceX’s program to colonize Mars, and his pioneering work with electric vehicles may help beat climate change, but he’s seriously undercutting this by being the world’s biggest Internet troll.

In the following reply to a tweet about the Great Filter, Elon even agrees that social media is potentially a great filter:

That tweet from two years ago has aged like seafood in the sun. Elon’s takeover of Twitter and erratic behavior as CEO has done a lot to destabilize civilization. Even his impending departure from that job due to a Twitter poll (seriously, WTF?) doesn’t mean normality is coming back to the bird app any time soon.

All of which begs the question: Is Elon Musk one of the Great Filters humanity must defeat? The answer to that is an emphatic ‘probably not.’ No one human being, not even a Musk, Gates, or Bezos, can cause the end of humanity. But billionaires have greater potential to tip the balance… for good or for bad.

The good news is the Great Filter is only a thought experiment, not an immutable law of the universe. The fact some of us are thinking about it makes the chances of surviving it higher. I’m a positive sort of guy, and we’ve bypassed all the filters so far, haven’t we? Why not a couple more?

I’m not saying it’ll be easy.

Global warming is an existential crisis; but with hard work, luck, and a combination of creativity, sustainable living practices and yet-to-be-discovered green technologies, we can beat that problem.

If and when we drag ourselves back from the brink of global warming, the human population will eventually exceed the Earth’s optimal carrying capacity. Maybe Elon’s idea of colonizing Mars will reduce pressure on the Earth’s population, and have the knock-on effect of futureproofing humanity.

It’s humanity's best and brightest who will help us survive, which is what makes the current crop of science deniers and neo-Luddites perhaps the biggest existential threat facing humanity. Unfortunately, this anti-science trend is fed by trolls on social media.

Which, of course, brings us back to Mr Musk.