Chan Kai Yee's Blog
January 17, 2012
China's Greater Asia Co-prosperity Sphere
China’s Greater Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere
By Chan Kai Yee
In my article "A Dynasty on the Verge of Collapse”, I quote North Korean official news agency’s report that urges party organizations to prove their loyalty by resolving the “burning” food problem and point out that knowing well Kim Dynasty’s predicament, the regime’s three official newspaper’s joint New Year editorial even urges “the whole party, the entire army and all the people” to “become human bulwarks and human shields in defending Kim Jong-un." Obviously, the Kim regime knows well that it is on the verge of collapse.
Recently, Kim Jong-nam, the prince who has failed to succeed to the throne, predicts his brother’s failure to maintain Kim Dynasty’s survival. Knowing well the dire situation in North Korea, Kim Jong-nam believes that King Jong-un lacks the experience to fulfill the Herculean task of resolving the food problem and improving people’s living standards. However, Kim Jong-nam forgets the China factor.
China is now at a turning point. For further economic growth to realize its dream to become too strong to be bullied by other countries, it needs a huge market, lots of natural resources and cheep labor. In order to greatly expand its domestic market, it has recently established nationwide life and medical insurance safety nets and is building millions of subsidized housing in order to make its people save less and spend more. In addition, it plans to speed up urbanization and substantially increase workers’ income.
However, when labor becomes expensive, lots of its labor-intensive factories will be in trouble. They have to move to North Korea where there is a shortage of investment and lots of cheap labor.
China is now exporting its Chinese model. Following China’s example, North Korea is now establishing Sino-North Korean joint ventures for China to utilize the natural resources and cheap labor there. North Korea will export lots of goods to China. This will make North Korea rich and greatly improve people’s living standards. North Korea will in turn become a growing market for Chinese exports. North Korea’s Kim Dynasty, if follows the Chinese model, will become popular. That will be the only way out for Kim Jong-un to maintain the survival of his dynasty.
The transformation of North Korea from poverty to prosperity will set a North Korean model that will be eagerly followed by China’s neighbors. Then the vast and populous Southeast Asia region will become sources of natural resources and cheap labor for China and a growing market for China while China will offer its huge market for those neighboring countries.
Decades ago, Japan shed lots of blood to fight for the establishment of its Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere but failed disastrously. However, it seems that China will succeed in establishing a greater Asia co-prosperity sphere centered on China without firing one bullet if it succeeds in setting a North Korean model.
By Chan Kai Yee
In my article "A Dynasty on the Verge of Collapse”, I quote North Korean official news agency’s report that urges party organizations to prove their loyalty by resolving the “burning” food problem and point out that knowing well Kim Dynasty’s predicament, the regime’s three official newspaper’s joint New Year editorial even urges “the whole party, the entire army and all the people” to “become human bulwarks and human shields in defending Kim Jong-un." Obviously, the Kim regime knows well that it is on the verge of collapse.
Recently, Kim Jong-nam, the prince who has failed to succeed to the throne, predicts his brother’s failure to maintain Kim Dynasty’s survival. Knowing well the dire situation in North Korea, Kim Jong-nam believes that King Jong-un lacks the experience to fulfill the Herculean task of resolving the food problem and improving people’s living standards. However, Kim Jong-nam forgets the China factor.
China is now at a turning point. For further economic growth to realize its dream to become too strong to be bullied by other countries, it needs a huge market, lots of natural resources and cheep labor. In order to greatly expand its domestic market, it has recently established nationwide life and medical insurance safety nets and is building millions of subsidized housing in order to make its people save less and spend more. In addition, it plans to speed up urbanization and substantially increase workers’ income.
However, when labor becomes expensive, lots of its labor-intensive factories will be in trouble. They have to move to North Korea where there is a shortage of investment and lots of cheap labor.
China is now exporting its Chinese model. Following China’s example, North Korea is now establishing Sino-North Korean joint ventures for China to utilize the natural resources and cheap labor there. North Korea will export lots of goods to China. This will make North Korea rich and greatly improve people’s living standards. North Korea will in turn become a growing market for Chinese exports. North Korea’s Kim Dynasty, if follows the Chinese model, will become popular. That will be the only way out for Kim Jong-un to maintain the survival of his dynasty.
The transformation of North Korea from poverty to prosperity will set a North Korean model that will be eagerly followed by China’s neighbors. Then the vast and populous Southeast Asia region will become sources of natural resources and cheap labor for China and a growing market for China while China will offer its huge market for those neighboring countries.
Decades ago, Japan shed lots of blood to fight for the establishment of its Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere but failed disastrously. However, it seems that China will succeed in establishing a greater Asia co-prosperity sphere centered on China without firing one bullet if it succeeds in setting a North Korean model.
January 14, 2012
Obama's Generous New Year Gift to China
China knows well that its weapons are inferior now; therefore, its leaders, political scientists, well-known journalists, academics, etc. have the consensus that China needs two decades of peace. They believe that by 2030, its economy will be much bigger and its weapons will be superior to put an end to its century-long history of being bullied by other countries.
When border tension with the Philippines intensified last June and America began to be involved by planning a joint military exercise, under the threat of a possible military confrontation involving America, China conducted the first test of its aircraft carrier in a hurry when the boat had not yet be able to sail by its own engine.
Obama’s unprecedented participation in ASEAN summit meeting on November 11, 2011 and announcement of America’s return to Asia encouraged China’s neighbors to confront China in their South China Sea disputes with China. China was greatly worried and forced to step up its military buildup. It conducted the second and third tests of its aircraft carrier last November and December, put its own satellite GPS system into trial operation at the end of last month and declared its plan to launch 6 more satellites in 2012 to improve the system. According to a Taiwan military expert, missiles and bombs guided by that system would be much more accurate and Taiwan needs US help to destroy those satellites if it is attacked.
Unexpectedly, Obama gave China a generous New Year gift by his announcement of America’s new strategy. First, he will greatly reduce America’s military spending, which of course will affect the progress of America’s development of sophisticated weapons. China’s weaponry will catch up and surpass America’s within a shorter period of time. What good news for China!
Second, the priority Obama gives to containing China has raised Chinese people’s nationalist fever, which has always been high due to China’s history of being bullied by foreign powers for a century. It is now even easier for China to increase its military spending and its weapon development personnel have even greater incentive in their work.
Third, according to Obama’s new strategy, America has two priorities: China and Iran. Then, if America gives advanced weapons to China’s neighbors to counter China, China will give its best weapons to Iran. As American weapons are expensive, it has to give financial aids for the purchase but lacks the funds. However, Chinese weapons are cheap and affordable for Iran. China can give its best weapons to Iran as its weapons are being developed and what it has sold is not what it ultimately wants. On the other hand, as those neighbors of China lack political stability, have corrupt officials or may become China’s allies, America cannot sell its best weapons to them, but less advanced weapons are not attractive enough for them.
If luckily for China, there is indeed a war between America and Iran, China will have the opportunity to test its weapons and improve them in real battles while making money by the sales. It is hard to tell whether the war will really take place, but you can be sure that Obama’s new strategy has reduced to zero China’s willingness to cooperate with America in dealing with Iran.
The last but not the least, America will no longer strive to have the ability to successfully fight two major regional wars, which is a major deterrence to war because with such ability, America will not hesitate to fight a war to stop aggression. Without such deterrence, there will be greater risk of war for America as countries like Iran will be bolder to test America’s patience especially when America has already been fighting a war.
For China, it means that the time when America is already in a war is the best timing for China to fight a war to resolve border disputes as according to the new strategy, America will not be able to fight two major regional wars. This is especially attractive to China when America has given some of its most sophisticated war equipment to a border contender. China can make a quick maneuver like what it did in its war against India in the 1960s to defeat its enemy, occupy the islands under dispute and capture the sophisticated equipment. It will return the equipment later as it did in the 1960s, but it will have learnt all the secrets in the equipment.
As Obama’s strategic switch is widely regarded as “an attempt to counter China’s rising power”, China certainly cannot respond by expressing its thanks for such a generous gift. However China’s official Xinhua News Agency’s response entitled “Constructive US role in Asia-Pacific welcome” shows that it is hard for China not to betray its joy at the news.
Chinese leaders are wise in avoiding confrontation with America as such confrontation may have disastrous consequence not only for the two countries but also for the world. My greatest worry is that under current Chinese political system and with worship of Mao Zedong remaining hot in China, a despot like Mao may emerge when China grows into a superpower stronger than America. That despot’s ambition to force his ways on the world will bring catastrophes to the world.
President Jorge Bush Jr. fought a war in Iraq that America should not fight, wasted $800 billion and caused America’s financial difficulties now. President Obama has proved incompetent in dealing with America’s economic difficulties. I hope the next president will have the talents to make America prosperous so as to prove to Chinese people that democracy is the best political system in the world so that China will learn from America’s example and have democracy. Only when there is democracy in China can we be sure that there will be no confrontation between China and America.
When border tension with the Philippines intensified last June and America began to be involved by planning a joint military exercise, under the threat of a possible military confrontation involving America, China conducted the first test of its aircraft carrier in a hurry when the boat had not yet be able to sail by its own engine.
Obama’s unprecedented participation in ASEAN summit meeting on November 11, 2011 and announcement of America’s return to Asia encouraged China’s neighbors to confront China in their South China Sea disputes with China. China was greatly worried and forced to step up its military buildup. It conducted the second and third tests of its aircraft carrier last November and December, put its own satellite GPS system into trial operation at the end of last month and declared its plan to launch 6 more satellites in 2012 to improve the system. According to a Taiwan military expert, missiles and bombs guided by that system would be much more accurate and Taiwan needs US help to destroy those satellites if it is attacked.
Unexpectedly, Obama gave China a generous New Year gift by his announcement of America’s new strategy. First, he will greatly reduce America’s military spending, which of course will affect the progress of America’s development of sophisticated weapons. China’s weaponry will catch up and surpass America’s within a shorter period of time. What good news for China!
Second, the priority Obama gives to containing China has raised Chinese people’s nationalist fever, which has always been high due to China’s history of being bullied by foreign powers for a century. It is now even easier for China to increase its military spending and its weapon development personnel have even greater incentive in their work.
Third, according to Obama’s new strategy, America has two priorities: China and Iran. Then, if America gives advanced weapons to China’s neighbors to counter China, China will give its best weapons to Iran. As American weapons are expensive, it has to give financial aids for the purchase but lacks the funds. However, Chinese weapons are cheap and affordable for Iran. China can give its best weapons to Iran as its weapons are being developed and what it has sold is not what it ultimately wants. On the other hand, as those neighbors of China lack political stability, have corrupt officials or may become China’s allies, America cannot sell its best weapons to them, but less advanced weapons are not attractive enough for them.
If luckily for China, there is indeed a war between America and Iran, China will have the opportunity to test its weapons and improve them in real battles while making money by the sales. It is hard to tell whether the war will really take place, but you can be sure that Obama’s new strategy has reduced to zero China’s willingness to cooperate with America in dealing with Iran.
The last but not the least, America will no longer strive to have the ability to successfully fight two major regional wars, which is a major deterrence to war because with such ability, America will not hesitate to fight a war to stop aggression. Without such deterrence, there will be greater risk of war for America as countries like Iran will be bolder to test America’s patience especially when America has already been fighting a war.
For China, it means that the time when America is already in a war is the best timing for China to fight a war to resolve border disputes as according to the new strategy, America will not be able to fight two major regional wars. This is especially attractive to China when America has given some of its most sophisticated war equipment to a border contender. China can make a quick maneuver like what it did in its war against India in the 1960s to defeat its enemy, occupy the islands under dispute and capture the sophisticated equipment. It will return the equipment later as it did in the 1960s, but it will have learnt all the secrets in the equipment.
As Obama’s strategic switch is widely regarded as “an attempt to counter China’s rising power”, China certainly cannot respond by expressing its thanks for such a generous gift. However China’s official Xinhua News Agency’s response entitled “Constructive US role in Asia-Pacific welcome” shows that it is hard for China not to betray its joy at the news.
Chinese leaders are wise in avoiding confrontation with America as such confrontation may have disastrous consequence not only for the two countries but also for the world. My greatest worry is that under current Chinese political system and with worship of Mao Zedong remaining hot in China, a despot like Mao may emerge when China grows into a superpower stronger than America. That despot’s ambition to force his ways on the world will bring catastrophes to the world.
President Jorge Bush Jr. fought a war in Iraq that America should not fight, wasted $800 billion and caused America’s financial difficulties now. President Obama has proved incompetent in dealing with America’s economic difficulties. I hope the next president will have the talents to make America prosperous so as to prove to Chinese people that democracy is the best political system in the world so that China will learn from America’s example and have democracy. Only when there is democracy in China can we be sure that there will be no confrontation between China and America.
