Navneet Bhushan's Blog

 I started this blog on 23rd October 2005. This blog is completing 20 years in October 2025. 

 

Although last three years I havent posted anything here, nevertheless, have been writing at other platforms. 

 

For example, started a newsletter on linkedin in 2023. Please see here https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/crafing-next-wave-innovation-navneet-bhushan/?trackingId=PZajHw4QRB2P9HqfccHC9A%3D%3D

 

The first post on 23 Oct 2005 mentions what this blog will be - Innovation Crafting

 

defined as an open forum

 " 

Innovation CraftingSuccessful exploitation of (New) ideas is innovation. One need to orchestrate or craft Innovation in a group such as a commercial organization. This is an open forum for Innovation and how to Craft it in the organizations"    https://innovationcrafting.blogspot.com/2005/10/innovation-crafting.html   On 26th September 2025, we released our inauguiral issue of what we call CRAFITTI TIES (THOUGHT IGNITION ESSAY SERIES) .  please see https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7377283318695964672  The next issue is planned for release on 10th October 2025 If you have any writing that can be converted to what we call NANO (30 words), TINY (150 words), MICRO (250 words) or MINI (500 words) ESSAY, you can send to navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com.  With a promise to write more often on this blog, its time to CELEBRATE THE 20 YEARS OF INNOVATION CRAFTING ! THANK YOU   with warm regards, Navneet Bhushan   

 

 BHELPURI THOUGHTS - THE KINDLE EDITION 

 

(LOOKING FORWARD TO YOUR REVIEWS)

became a Physical paperback book

available at Amazon ( all over the world) 

Paperback BHELPURI THOUGHTS at AMAZON INDIA

https://www.amazon.in/Bhelpuri-Though...

and at AMAZON.COM for US

https://www.amazon.com/BHELPURI-THOUG...

 From #BhelpuriThoughts

Bhelpuri Thoughts - On Innovation and Entrepreneurship with Poems and Stories of my Times


- releasing on 15th August 2022

The New
 
The New Me
And the New You
Must have
Courage
to be
New
 
War and Peace Mix
 
War is always on, As is Peace
Both Exist – Together –
Same time, Same space, Same mind
 
And this Mix of War and Peace is not what it used to be
Peace-War Mix has changed, is changing -
A dynamic
Evolving and natural
Just like LIFE
 
Freedom
 
My Heart
Experiences Freedom
When
It is allowed to
Imagine
 
Evolve
 
To Evolve in Life
Accept
Imperfections
 
Words
 
Running behind words
I got just
Nothing

#entrepreneurship #innovation #Poems #StartUps #creativity #Life
......

have you pre-ordered it yet ! https://lnkd.in/gxRh9t7G

https://lnkd.in/g3Vfh5x9

 

BHELPURI THOUGHTS: On Innovation and Entrepreneurship with Poems and Stories of my times Book is available for Pre-Order on Kindle  

Releasing on 15th August 2022 !

 

Pre-order at Amazon 

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0B8V48VWZ?...

 

if you are in India - order here https://www.amazon.in/dp/B0B8V48VWZ

 

 

BHELPURI is a serving of puffed rice in spicy sauces with onion, coriander and other condiments. The interesting ingredient of bhelpuri is the puri (a wafer), which is edible and serves as a spoon. Bhelpuri though associated with city of Mumbai, has found its variants all across India and in fact the globe.

Metaphorically, Bhelpuri can also map to the French word “potpourri”, a veritable collection of odds and ends. The ingenuity of the bhelpuri server lies in adding different ingredients into the sauce createing unique flavours. It also could reflects the multitude of activities that is a part of life. Our disordered thoughts when they get manifested and expressed, potentially could be unique, tangy and mouth watering - most important - fulfilling and meaningful.

I hope you will get a taste of Bhelpuri – reading this small book and savor the flavors slowly!

Let us meet

Thoughts that arise inside my mind are so diverse and are influenced by so many triggers that it is impossible to capture them all. Surprise that they became stories and poems over a period of time in my life. Further, many of these started as questions in my professional work as a scientist, researcher in applied software science and then as an entrepreneur and an innovation consultant. Most of these were unplanned – perhaps therefore real and pure – from deep inside me. The small poems that I call thought-snippets are windows to my mind and feelings over multiple years of passing through life. The stories – some of them happened because of specific events, some my mind imagined and created. The articles on innovation and starting up on developing an idea are part of potential ways and means to achieve your goals and ends. The key is these are not straight forward as steps in a process or an algorithm. All these are interlinked in ways that you - dear reader - have to find on your own.

The question is why these thoughts occur and why I expressed them in these articles, poems and stories? It is a mystery and a personal journey to understand myself. Who am I? Why am I? What am I? Why do we exist? Why does the universe exist? The questions remained unanswered to me. Experts were ignorant of my questions

Experts

On War
On everything else And love -
Experts are Ignorant

Mind gets vibrations coming from multiple directions, from variety of events, triggers and experiences. These for me became my thoughts. Then were manifested into multiple artifacts – the articulation form took articles, poems and stories. Looking back at these, it gives a flow of my mind in different dimensions and directions.

Perhaps these will connect with you at some points and paths – lets meet and feel each other’s hearts at least once – welcome!

The Book has five parts Part 1 is on Innovation, Starting-up, Entrepreneurship and Global Changes. Part 2, Part 4, and Part 5 are Poems of various aspects and dimensions written over different periods, collated on specific themes or aspects. Part 3 has short stories written during the decade of 1985-1995.

I started the column at IADNews - a vibrant portal on Indian defence in July 2022

 

I call it 

DESIGN CENTRIC WARFARE

 

Please Visit

 IADN AUTHOR PAGE - NAVNEET BHUSHAN

 

 

 

Military Domains, Dimensions, Doctrines: Towards Design Centric Warfare 

We need a clear, comprehensive and unambiguous delineation of military domains, military dimensions and of course emerging military doctrines and forms of warfare. In this new column “Of Military domains, dimensions and doctrines – Towards a Design Centric Warfare”, we will be exploring and explaining a new model to comprehend the four substrates or domains of reality – Cognitive, Living, Informational and Physical. The changes observed in these domains can be identified and codified into military dimensions.

There are four fundamental dimensions (the 3-dimensional spatial world) and temporal dimensions that we observe in our sensory human experience. We define 7 natural dimensions and many derived dimensions of what Chinese called “unrestricted warfare” and which Russia utilized as “hybrid warfare” and US/West is calling the multi-domain and futuristic mosaic warfare with decision centric warfare templates.

We argue and explain that in the future model of warfare it will be what we call the “Design Centric warfare” where the OODA loops of John Boyd have to give way to what we call the UDO cycles (understand, design and orchestrate) – especially in the upcoming military force structures based on MUM-T – (manned unmanned teaming). Unmanned-Remote-Hypersonic-Precision warfare in the sixth wave of innovation (2020-2045) with algorithmic intelligence and quantum computing built on things becoming nano, autonomous and networked to synthesize reality, energy, and biology, will transform warfare and wars.

We assert that there are four main domains of our existence – Cognitive/Mind (C), Life/Living domain, Information Domain (I), and Physical (P) domain. We call them the CLIP domains. The impact of technological changes as reflected in the sixth wave of innovation (See http://www.crafitti.com/sixth-woi.html) will transform warfare ahead.

Multi-domain Multi-dimensional OODA Loops for A National Capability Assessment: Crafitti

We will describe the evolutionary paths and potential revolutions of warfare characteristics and possible ways nature of war itself may change as a calibrated organized threat and capability to degenerate and demolish the opponents’ systems of existence and sustainability. This could lead to new emergences. Rather than the Clausewitz’s “invariant” nature of war as reflected in ” organized violence ” new evolution will lead to and will be led by novel complex intelligent strategic systems that will evolve from optimization focus to anti-fragile evolvability through on-the-fly assurance of robust actions.

In this context, the fundamental shift in warfare will be the role of commanders shifting from Decision makers to Battle/Combat Designers. It will need the transformation of John Boyd’s Observe, Orient, Decide and Act (OODA) loops that have been the key strategic construct to a much more relevant and proposed construct of Understand, Design and Orchestrate (UDO) – the new UDO loop of battle design in a manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T). The teamed-up systems will provide the battle-designers a new ability to impose political will through strategically designed calibrated-battle for organized threat to demolish and disrupt the adversary.

KEY DISCUSSION TOPICS COMING AHEAD

• Warfare in 5 waves of Innovation (till 2020)

• The Sixth Wave of Innovation (2020-2045)

• The Unrestricted Warfare through Multi-domain Multi-dimensional Weaponization

• Remote Lethality for 7Ds of Destruction

• The C5ISR – The Systems Fusion from System of Systems

• Manned-Unmanned Teaming – The Holy Grail of Unmanned Warfare

• From Mechanization to Informatization to Intelligentization (The Chinese Thinking)

• Towards Genius Warfare Systems

• A readiness assessment and evolution framework for Multi-Dimensional Multi-Domain MUM-T warfare with OODA and UDO loops

 

On 18th July 2022, I was invited to conduct a half-day workshop at VVIET MYSURU, Entrepreneurship Development Cell. It was attended by about 100 students and faculty members.
 

The key points are 
1. Invent a solution  or a venture using sixth wave of innovation technologies or changes http://www.crafitti.com/sixth-woi.html2. Create a Lean Canvas3. Customer value framework is essential 4. Invent using TRIZ 5. minimum viable product needs a plan for verification  and validation of all assumptions hypothesis6. use the Goal Canvas for continuous evolution of MVP7. Use Crafitti idea Journal weekly capturing problem  and ideation8. Create a White Paper for your product or venture 9. Continuously keep on inventing 10. Prepare an invention disclosure even if your venture is not inventive  


 

 

Corporate Success Metrics for Sixth Wave of Innovation (2020-2045)

 

The Software based algorithmic companies of 5th wave of innovation expanded scope of measurement of company’s performance by processing newly available and stored interaction-data - through Balanced Score Cards, , ERP based enterprise systems and their multiple evolutions

PROBLEM CONTEXT:  

Given the deeper understanding of last 30 years with newer, faster and more robust technologies and understanding of social-networks embedded within any formal human organization structure, many new views have emerged that points to potentially different metrics on hitherto unknown and unknowable phenomenon of human interactions and performance that contribute to success or failure of a company. 

As we have stated and claimed, that the world is undergoing a new churn or creative destruction through newer technologies (Industry 4.0 and Sixth wave of innovation) that started impacting around 2015 and will be deepening through 2025, will there be new metrics of corporate success that will emerge? What will they be, if yes? If no, then will these technologies be just add-ons or incremental to already existing 5th wave technologies?

PROBLEM (s):  An assessment method (s) is needed to answer (a) are these changes really creative destruction of the type/kind we experienced and that have been detailed for periods 1945-1955 and 1985-1995? (b) What are these technologies and how they will impact the ways and means to create economic value through the existing “company” structures? (c) the Algorithmic companies, read google, amazon, uber, facebook, etc, utilized the new resource – the algorithms to create new value. The exclusive use of the new resource – the algorithms – turned out to be a strategic surprise for the energy-matter-electricity based companies of 4th and 3rdwave. Will the new resource of (i) algorithmic intelligence and upcoming (ii) quantum computing change the nature of the company as a vehicle for value creation to the same or more than the extent the algorithmic companies changed the energy-matter-electricity resource-based companies? (d) What will be the new phenomenon by a 6WoI company that we need to measure and how? What will be the changes in the 6th wave to the existing phenomenon of 4th and 5th wave companies that need to be assessed and how? How will existing phenomenon of value creation morph in the 6th wave through new technologies of algorithmic intelligence and quantum computing? (e) What are the dimensions of user/buyer/customer value that will change in 6woi? What existing dimensions will morph and what dimensions

Initial thinking points to the availability of data at multiple levels of granularity and scale – which was hitherto a very bland set of data. The data-richness gives possibilities of data-fungibility to surface variety of meaningful views. The metrics emerging will also need models to explain the rich-data.   

will become dormant?

POSSIBLE EXPLORATORY THOUGHTS (s): 

1. 6WoI provides rich-data available – Emerging business models that exploit the multi-resolution, multi-perspective, deep-granularity of real-time and historical data provided at a high data rate and giving processing of rich multi-granular data through classifiers, learning algorithms and high-speed networks will need newer metrics to indicate performance and also measure the impact on the financial metrics

new lenses (theoretical) and practical may be needed to discover and apportion fair and real value of each player who provides the final service or product to the customer who may never own it.

3. 6WoI companies will be in complex interplay of Employee-Bot systems working with Customer-Bot systems – these interactions will require multi-dimensional mechanisms designs and operational orchestrations that will need newer ways to measure them through newer metrics.

 

One can have multiple scenarios of future studied as 1-3 above (which are anyway not Mutually Exclusive and Comprehensively Exhaustive). I propose, we will revisit this problem after few more themes are explored, problems discussed and our understanding of 6WoI and its impact gets crystallized. I believe this problem is too early to be discussed at this point. I would definitely like more understanding and deeper view.

 

 

About the Author Navneet Bhushan (Navneet) is the founder-director of Crafitti Consulting. He is the leading expert on innovation and principal author of Strategic Decision Making- Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Springer-Verlag, UK, published as part of the Decision Engineering Series and featured at the Harvard Business School. He consults on strategy, innovation, military/defence and intellectual property. He can be contacted at navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com.

***** 

 

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION – Core of Industry 4.0?

INDUSTRY 4.0

Digital Transformation phrase has historical connection with Industry 4.0 coined in the year 2006, when Cyber Physical Systems started emerging from the research discussions to manufacturing sector. That also led to a call to Digitize the Manufacturing Sector.

 In the year 2006, Germany declared the move towards Industry 4.0. It was the advent of radically different technologies - distinct from the previous three Industrial eras. The Industry 4.0 was considered to be driven by the Cyber physical systems. Contrast this to Industry 1.0 – start of the industrial revolution of using water/steam powered production; Industry 2.0 of mass production and use of electricity at the start of 20th Century; and automation through computers in Industry 3.0 in 1970s. The Cyber Physical Systems (CPS)consists of interoperable and integrated Internet of things, computation, networking, and physical processes that cooperate with each other and with human beings in real time. 9 key technologies underlie CPS - Autonomous Robots, Big Data, Augmented Reality (AR), Additive manufacturing (3D printing), Cloud Computing, Cyber Security, Internet of Things (IOT), System Integration and Simulation. The call to Digitize the Manufacturing Sector started emerging, soon after.

To Digitizemeans creating a digital representation of physical objects. There is a “transformation” of physical objects into data. The physical object itself doesn’t get changed through this process. The aspects and information contained in the physical object or relevant to its identity and understanding, gets converted to data when it is digitized. The Digitalizationwas defined to reflect the transformation or enablement of a business process using digital data and digital technologies (for example, process for booking an airline ticket). The process is automated with no or minimum human intervention when it is digitalized. In a way it is changed or transformed to its digital version as conceived by the process-designer within the constraints of existing technologies and digital data that may be representing the physical objects in their digitized avatars. 

Although Digital Transformation has its roots in Industry 4.0, it is being applied to all kinds of businesses and organization. It indeed has become a buzz word since 2014. A generic tongue-in-cheek view of the term Digital Transformation is - continuously changing your business through emerging technologies. On success in some dimension, one can claim and call that the entity is “transformed” to be "the Digital" that “we always intended it to be”. And if new technology emerges again - one starts the journey again.

TRANSFORMATION, REPLACEMENT and EVOLUTION Replacing something is easier than transforming it. To transform an entity, one needs to keep its identity same yet change some part of its structure or enhance its structure by additions or deletions to its anatomy yet make sure that it is not destroyed, not loses its erstwhile identity. Replacement implies changing the older with the newer. Ideally, a digital factory could be designed and developed as a stand alone digitized and digitalized model of the existing unit and once the digital system is working one can discard the old purely physical factory.

Modelling and Simulation is one of the established methods to study any system for the purpose of evaluating its performance and also studying changes to the system. Over the years, simulation techniques have improved and now become close to replicating the physical systems and dynamics in models of sufficient details. There is an emerging paradigm of “digital-twins” as a means to move towards “digital transformation”. Evolution implies changing by replacement and/or through modification of certain internal sub-structures or the way these structures are organized to perform a specific set of functions. From the above, the replacement or big-bang one-shot transformation may happen, though rarely.

Three - Zations of Chinese Military In the 1950’s Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) proposed Mechanization as its “transformation strategy”. In 1990s, a new transformation term “informationization” of PLA was declared in the software driven 5th wave of innovation. Recently, PLA announced that “mechanization” has been complete/accomplished. A Transformation initiative started in 1950’s has been accomplished in 2020. Clearly transformation is evolutionary not a big-bang organizational disruption. The clarity of goal-setting is visible in the way PLA decided to call it as informationization. One must see that these two -zations have come to PLA as a follower of western transformation. The third transformationthat PLA announced in 2019 -Intelligentization is when China will lead and drive the technologies as well as the transformation. China has announced to accelerate the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization. There is an objective lesson for others to understand from a nation that has been accomplishing long-term strategies in a consistent and persistent manner. Transformation is hard/difficult/destructive BUT Long term clear and unambiguous functional goal-setting and pursuit through evolutionary explorations to find the paths towards the functional goals, continuously transforms in a robust or even anti-fragile (systems that gain strengths from harmful impacts) manner.

Digital Transformation should ideally be called an integrated, evolving and amalgamated movements of three dynamics – Mechanization (energy-matter), information and intelligence. That may not sound as enticing for marketing folks as the dream being sold as Digital Transformation

What is Digital Transformation then … ? It is a vague, marketing term given by “American’ way of salesmanship. It encompasses various proposals to current known ways, existing and emerging technologies, and experiences, to accomplish embedding more “information” and more “intelligence” into the existing systems (both human and mechanical systems) to monitor, exchange, convert and process different operands for which the system exists – matter(objects), energy, value (money), information and upcoming ideas, emotions, beliefs, intentions, thoughts, etc (in no particular order). It is a bit of a misnomer – both from “digital” and “transformation” perspectives. The Chinese articulation as integrated paths towards mechanization, information embedding and making systems intelligent as the three dynamic, evolving and amalgamated movements ahead –seems to be more appropriate. The STEMIL (space-time energy-matter information and life) being Changed (C) through Mind (Thought Consciousness and Power) (TCP) was what I called STEMIL-C-TCP model.

About the Author Navneet Bhushan (Navneet) is the founder-director of Crafitti Consulting. He is the leading expert on innovation and principal author of Strategic Decision Making- Applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Springer-Verlag, UK, published as part of the Decision Engineering Series and featured at the Harvard Business School. He consults on strategy, innovation, military/defence and intellectual property. He can be contacted at navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com.

 

Mind Activity and Sleep Quality – A Conjecture

 

(1) In a recent study (https://bigthink.com/mind-brain/how-many-thoughts-per-day?rebelltitem=4#rebelltitem4) the frequency of thought was estimated using a concept called “thought worms” – adjacent points in a simplified representation of activity patterns in the brain. They report that a human being goes through 6200 thought worms per day. They did not study what these thoughts are, rather when the brain shifts to the next one.

(2)  In a classical paper in 1956 Miller explained the limits on human information processing as magic number 7 plus or minus two http://www.musanim.com/miller1956/(human mind can distinguish 7 plus or minus distinct objects or sensory inputs at the same time. We can interpret this to be keeping 5 to 9 thoughts in mind for a short duration of time; after which the mind shifts to next set. Of course, it will not be that suddenly complete set of thoughts is changed to next set abruptly. It is quite likely a transition. The maximum number of possible thoughts i calculated some years back as https://innovationcrafting.blogspot.c... 

(3) If we take sleep time as 8 hours and Millers 7 plus minus 2 as the number of thoughts that we can keep in our mind; this implies human being is awake for 16 hours or 16x3600 = 57600 seconds total time (wake time). Assuming the 6200 thoughts at point 1 are for 16 hours wake time only. The ratio 57600/6200 = 9.29 seconds per thought if we just keep one thought at a time and switch to the next one in a sequential manner. Every 9.29 seconds brain goes to next thought.

 

If we take Millers 5 as the information processing capacity – that is 5 thoughts can be there at same time in the mind;

5x 9.29 = 46.45 seconds can be utilized for 5 thoughts to meet the 6200 thoughts constraint in 16 hours ; set of 7 thoughts can stay for 65.03 sec and set of 9 thoughts can stay for 83.61 seconds.

On an average we are wired to switch to a new thought in every 46 seconds to 84 seconds (awake state).

(4) Conjecture : If the mind is kept at full capacity of (say 5-9 thoughts) for longer duration (more than 46 second to 84 seconds) even though we may get 6200 thoughts in 16 hours, we may have trouble in sleeping. Or the quality of sleep may have some correlation to the number of thoughts kept in the mind at full capacity and for longer duration.

(5) As mentioned in the Jeff Bezos article https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/jeff-bezos-8-hours-of-sleep-why-he-thinks-just-getting-4-hours-isnt-worth-it.html?utm_content=Main&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1610126159

Where he prefers high IQ meetings before lunch – as they call fresh mind. More decisions one makes during the day – more impact it will have on the night sleep (another conjecture)

 

Just some conjectures ! 😊

 

Announcing the PENTA-POLAR World

 

We are now in a Penta-polar world - welcome to 21st year of 21st century. There are at least five centers that are vying for global power – USA, China, Russia, European Union (EU) and Islamic World led by Turkey. One can add Japan and India to this list as well, though both these may still be reactionary powers focused more on self-defense and pure economic development while wriggling within the rising waves of power dynamics. The US led Uni-polar world of 1990’s has given way to an emergence of players that will remind one of 19th century and early 20th century, when British designed Industrially revolutionized uni-polar world transitioned to a multi-polar world composed of Russia (later USSR), Germany, USA, France and Japan that ultimately led to two world wars in the 20th Century.

 

The new emergent penta-polar world orderwas forecast by this author in 1998 in a workshop called the “Battle scene in Year 2020”. The paper titled “future of warfare – a search for military doctrine” [1], explains, “Most experts believe that we are moving towards a multi-polar world.  The possible co-operation between China and Russia as a front against US will lead to strengthening of China.  By next 20 years or so, China will be considered as a power center to challenge US - a pole in the penta-polar world composed of US, European Community, Japan, China and Russia.  The players may be different then these five. For example, we may find Russia falling way behind the others due to failure of its economic and social systems. India may come out as a strong power pole if economic, technological and social capabilities of our people are fully exploited.  Also, Japan may take the road to military power rather than solely depending upon its economic capabilities.”

 

The Industrial Revolution and World Power Transitions

 

History repeats as they say. Yet it does not repeat exactly. It varies in its constituent elements, their interactions and means through which these interactions take place. A future emerge that cannot be discerned exactly either from history or the dynamics underlying the elements and their interactions. Scientists from different fields call these multi-dimensional feedback loops as complex systems or complex system of systems which exhibit non-linearity and stochasticity that the tools, models, logic and theories available to classical science are insufficient to explain. There is a play involved – non-separability of the dance from the dancers – that not only changes the structure and dynamics of the world but also expands the substrate of what we call the world.

 

Within the contours of a set of dynamic conditions, overall patterns can however be discerned. Power is great and grave intoxication. Its ever-expanding quest in humans, provides the mother nature an instrument to change our carefully crafted world. That is true for great civilizations and the world structures designed by great powers. The world is ordered as set of nation states in various forms, shapes and cultures, since the 17thcentury. The first industrial revolution gave Britain an unprecedented lead over others. Britain attained the global superpower status as Germany, Russia (later USSR), France, USA and Japan started industrializing. As the world was industrializing, the pie for Britain got bigger. In his 2013 book, “War – what is it good for?”, Ian Morris writes, “Britain the then globocop could wage trade wars on the rivals, wage shooting wars on them or make concessions. All three options for Britain were net-loses, from their current globocop status.” Britain made US its deputy, gave concessions to Japan and gave middle east to France. The focus was shifted to Germany perhaps as it was the biggest unknown-unknow of all.

 

In a recent book, “Russia and America -The Asymmetric Rivalry”, Andrei Tsygankov, lists 5 world orders and transitions since 1815 when Russia ruled and France was defeated. Then in 1856, France and Britain led world transition subordinated Russia. Next two transitions emerged after two world wars as Britain and France led to subordinate Germany in 1919 and US, USSR and Britain led in 1945 to subordinate Germany. The US-USSR cold war gave us a bi-polar world that paved its way into a unipolar world - led and driven by US since 1993. USSR was subordinated in this new world order and also divided into many “new” nations – Russia being one of them.

 

Is this a transition or a new world order? – The penta-polar world

 

Is this transition to the new world order driven by a rising and more assertive China?  Reading the Chinese defence white papers (from 1998 to 2019) one can see how China has indicated the shift towards multi-polarity since 1998 and also its own role as a power center in the multi-polar world. In author’s earlier article [2], the Chinese evolution is explained as, “One should read the white papers to see how China increasingly became confident, calibrated and convinced in the movement towards its so-called “peaceful rise”. However, we should have no doubt that China is in a deeper, long-term and strategic game of re-ordering of world power to be controlled and commanded by China at the pole position. “

 

As near peer or regional competitors started emerging, USA – the globocop started offering what Britain gave to its rivals in 19th century – trade wars, shooting wars or concessions. China played out the game to perfection – as a possible candidate where US can “export its democracy” through concessions, rather than getting into a trade or shooting war, unlike Russia. The realization of China’s “Hundred Year marathon”, that the USA needed, came in the form of Trump administration when it unleashed the trade war. The disruption of the 21st century in the form of Pandemic, during the ongoing trade war, has exacerbated the world power transition to a much more even power polarization. Where new players are emerging as power centers of their local or regional arenas – for example, emergence of Turkey in this decade as a strategic power player and its role in making Ajerbaijan win the 45 days war against Armenia in 2020, is an illustration of new dynamics. Russia has created and expanded its asymmetric capabilities and used it in the regions and arenas where its perceived interests were being compromised. China has used its fundamental strengths and ability to build infrastructure quickly and at a large scale to create its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which some commentators have explained as debt traps diplomacy. 

 

There is an Islamic leadership conflict that is underway between Turkey led Islamic countries versus the established Saudi governed structures that is closer to US and Israel interests. US wooed India for Quad and named the Indo-pacific as arena to combine the power of 4 democracies against revisionist China and Russia. The Russia China India Triad that emerged against the US led unipolarity was weakened through Quad. Please see author’s article on Triad Vs Quad [3], which explains, “One change however visible in the emerging superpower rivalry between China and USA, compared to US and USSR, is the emergence of a kind of multi-polar world with intricate connections between various poles in multiple dimensions. Each of these powers have unique capabilities – be it economic power, military power, technology power, soft power, smart power or sharp power.”

 

 In 2021, key indicators are already visible of the transition, as USA will officially make Joe Biden the POTUS. There is a landmark EU and China investment treaty that snubs USA [4] and of course the dilutes Pandemic unleashing responsibility of China. India has mentioned categorically that it has an independent foreign policy [5], especially with regards to purchasing S-400 Air Defence system from Russia. Iranian supremo demands the new Biden administration to lift Trump imposed sanctions [6]. And then the activities of the outgoing US Secretary of state appears to be the last gasp of an imperial power [7].

 

Is India a Player or the Playground?

 

The transitioning world power opens up decades of potential geo-political upheavals that may create conflicts at multiple levels. The Ajerbaijan-Armenia military conflict will continue and may surface similar conflict clones across the world. The suppressed decades-old perceived or real injustices may emerge in the vacuum that the contest of global power play creates in specific time-periods ahead.

 

India has traditionally been so called “soft-power”. A reactive nation, trying to maintain its democracy under great duress of its inner contradictions and yet minimizing the possibility of conflicts with the global powers. For seven decades after independence, India has pursued and been able to sustain itself despite different dimensions of global power great-game played around and within. One key aspect of the great power game should be clear by now. The great power game requires players – nation states, different types of trans-national organizations, private players and geo-political, economic, military and even technology and entertainment- such as movie actors to play out the dynamics. A recent book, The Ultimate Goal – A Former R&AW Chief Deconstructs How Nations Constructs Narratives, by Vikram Sood, explains how USA and other big powers create narratives to fit in the world events and indirectly creates the substrate on which to play out the global power games in military, economic and geo-political dimensions. He states that although Russia and China also try their great narratives and use these to orchestrate an amenable reality, they are not as successful as the west – and especially the USA – in building a perception of global power capability.

 

India has been playing the power dynamics game without a long-term, consistent and constructed narrative, or at least, there is not enough evidence. Secondly, perhaps India has been more of the playground of global power play for so long that she has not been able to transition to become the global power player that she should or could. Given that India will maintain the highest youngest population of all major countries of the world for next 15 years or so, It is time for India to become the global player instead of global power games playground.

 

Winner of the Global power Transition – years 2030-2035

 

It may look strange, but history does give us certain lessons. The previous power transition in the conflict between most unknown-unknown power – that is Germany and the Britain driven world - conflicts emerged between the rising power of Germany and existing power of Britain. Both powers reduced so much after the two world wars that not only there were new powers available but countries like China and India emerged from their slumber or subjugation by 1950. The winning power of the world power order and transitions of the previous world was not the main players but the USA and USSR, who played the power games of the global superpowers as supporters of both sides and waiting for their own profit or opportunity till the last moment to side against the axis powers.

 

We are getting into a variant of past as history never repeats exactly. If India plays its game as a global power and not allow itself to be the global power playground alone, there are certain capabilities and strengths within India that are indicating that once the world churns out the new global power plays and run through the emerging penta-polar conflicts in economic, technological, informational and intelligence dimensions, India can potentially be the net emergent global power, like the USA of 20th century. To be there in 2030-2035 time period, India need to play out the penta-polar world dynamics through multi-alignment strategy backed up by a future narrative of its own, even though it will continue to be the playground as well.  

 

Above all, however, India should minimize the probability to be the playground of the great game. The only way India can do so, is by being a player of the global power game. Its time to be the pole.

 

References

 

[1]  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/345438042_Future_of_Warfare_A_Search_for_Military_Doctrine

 

 [2] https://indiandefenceindustries.in/evolution-chinese-defence

 

 [3] http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/triad-vs-quad-indian-geopolitical-options-as-a-twin-vertex/

 

[4] https://www.npr.org/2020/12/30/951400927/europe-and-china-approve-landmark-investment-treaty-snubbing-u-s

 

[5] https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/in-mea-s-clear-cut-message-to-us-a-reminder-on-s-400-deal/story-UQMd43MEwrNvz4QGXxdcVI.html

 

[6] https://sputniknews.com/world/202101081081708766-irans-supreme-leader-says-no-hurry-for-us-to-rejoin-nuclear-deal-demands-end-to-sanctions/

 

[7] https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/is-pompeo-the-last-gasp-of-us-imperial-power/

 

https://www.amazon.com/War-What-Good-...

https://www.amazon.com/Russia-America...

https://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Goal-...