I thought you might find this article interesting. It doesn’t take much to believe most of it is true. Read on, it’s fascinating! (we especially like the section on lawyers!)

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper

worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared

and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot

of industries in the next 10 years – and most people won’t see it

coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take

pictures on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had

10,000 pixels, but followed Moore’s law. So as with all exponential

technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it

became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It

will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and

electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome

to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the

biggest taxi company in the world.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they

don’t own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in

understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player

in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM

Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff)

within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done

by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers

in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate

than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software

that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will

become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for

the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be

disrupted. You don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car

with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to

your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the

driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will

never get a driver’s license and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for

that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million

people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one

accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that

will drop to one accident in 6 million mi (10 million km). That will

save a million lives each year.

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car

companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car,

while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary

approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without

accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance

business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute,

people will move further away to live in a more beautiful

neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less

noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will

become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an

exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning

impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.

Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to

prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can’t

last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of

salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We

don’t have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking

water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean

water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are

companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from

Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan,

your blood sample and you breathe into it.

It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease.

It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have

access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye,

medical establishment.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from

$18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times

faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing

shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.

The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the

large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning

possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect

shoe at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office

building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D

printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask

yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the

answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea

designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the

21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will

be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new

jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future.

Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field

instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced

veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in

2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.

Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. There are several

startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It

contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as “alternative

protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating

insects).

There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which mood

you’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial

expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s

being displayed when they’re telling the truth and when they’ re not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency. Of the world.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per

year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it’s 80

years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be

more that one year increase per year. So, we all might live for a long

long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and

Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means

everyone has the same access to world class education.

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at

school in First World countries. We have already released our software

in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Swahili and Chinese this

Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English

app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English

within half a year.

Wow!

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