Hong Kong's Chief Executive Election....fact not stranger than fiction
At the end of 2014, in the immediate aftermath of Hong Kong’s Umbrella Revolution, I launched my second novel. It was called The Devil You Know and it was a political thriller which, at the time, was set two years in future….as in right now.
The backdrop in The Devil is the 2017 Chief Executive Election in Hong Kong, which is currently in full sway, although you would be forgiven for having missed this, such is the lack of interest a Hong Kong election seems to generate. Yet, as I read the newspapers and watch events (such as they are) unfold, I can’t help but compare how my predictions (as of course I had to make a few) have turned out in the reality of the current political climate.
One thing I got entirely wrong was the voting system. In The Devil I suggested that the pig that was the 2015 Reform Bill would pass, giving Hong Kong a smidgeon of democracy where voting for all would be permissible, so long as it was only for candidates who had been pre-screened by a Beijing controlled nomination committee. However, even that smidgeon has been denied to us. Instead we are left with the existing system (which isn’t even a pretense at democracy) where an Election Committee of 1,200 pre-selected voters who supposedly represent Hong Kong society, get to decide on Beijing’s anointed candidate.
A major pat on the back I deserve, however, is for predicting how uninspiring the candidates were going to be. At the outset of The Devil the poor old electorate is left with a choice between a cardboard Financial Secretary and a wooden Chief Secretary. Here, I’ve been pretty much spot on, as we seem to be moving towards an unstimulating showdown between Financial Secretary, John Tsang and his government colleague Chief Secretary, Carrie Lam (being the one everyone knows Beijing prefers and who is almost, therefore, a shoe-in for victory).
Fact has also met fiction in the way the entire election is being generally received by the public. The collective feeling seems to be one of “yeah, whatever”. Nobody seems to give two hoots and why would they, given that 99% of the script has already been written. In addition, it really is hard to tell the difference between Carrie Lam and John Tsang. Both have spent their careers as government civil servants. Both vaunt their experience, but their experience is exactly the same and, as such, more of the same is all we can expect whoever ends up winning.
To be fair there are two other candidates trying to muscle in on Lam and Tsang’s action. One is Regina Ip, who also spent many years in government. Her last government post, in fact, was as the security secretary who tried to force Article 23 (the anti-subversion section of the Basic Law) down the Hong Kong population’s throat in 2003. This prompted the famous July 1st March, which saw half a million people take to the streets in protest (an event recounted in the The Devil). Ip was forced to resign, but has since reinvented herself as a LegCo politician founding her own party. One can’t help worrying, however, that once in government she will revert to form, just like the other two, so again it will be a case of ‘same-old, same-old’.
Then there’s ex-judge Wu who was the first to throw his hat into the ring. Nobody really gives Wu much of a chance and although his background is different, compared to the other three, I for one feel a bit disappointed to see a judge cross the line into politics. A judiciary only works when it is entirely impartial and above political considerations, so the image of an ex-judge running for election does Hong Kong’s rule-of-law a disservice, especially when (let’s face it) he’s not going to be in the final shake up.
What we are missing is a credible candidate from the Democratic camp throwing down a challenge to the Election Committee with a real alternative which offers Hong Kong the change it so desperately needs. The plot in The Devil sees such a last minute entry from a strong Democratic candidate who has the full backing of the free press and, in fiction at least, it really stirred things up. I based the intervening candidate very loosely on Audrey Yu who isn’t from the abhorrent fire-breathing arm of the Democratic spectrum in Hong Kong, but is someone who persuades by reasoned eloquence and intelligence. Oh Audrey, how I wish you’d run!
Instead, the only Democrat who seems prepared to step into the fray is Long Hair, whose radicalism appears almost mainstream nowadays, because of the rise of the Hong Kong nativists advocating independence, such is the pitiful state of Hong Kong’s polity. Don’t get me wrong, I like Long Hair and despite his image, when you see him interviewed you realize he can certainly more than hold his own in a debate. But he does the Democrats no favours by declaring his candidacy because he prevents other more credible options (like Audrey) coming forward.
And so we are left with the shackles of past experience, in the guise of likely winner Carrie Lam (as she has Beijing’s backing) with either John Tsang or Regina Ip doing the noble job of straw person. Past experience, however, has completely failed so it’s not too difficult to predict what the future holds if past experience is the only option available.
I always thought that those right-wing neo-conservatives in the US who couldn’t stand any form of government intervening in the normal operation of society, were completely bonkers. In Hong Kong, however, with this set of candidates on offer, I think they may have a point. If that’s what our government has to offer, then I say it should just go away and leave us alone.
As for the result of the 2017 CE election in The Devil You Know? Well, I don’t want to give away the ending, but I suspect it is certainly very different from what we are going to see in reality come March. And Hong Kong will be much poorer for it.
The backdrop in The Devil is the 2017 Chief Executive Election in Hong Kong, which is currently in full sway, although you would be forgiven for having missed this, such is the lack of interest a Hong Kong election seems to generate. Yet, as I read the newspapers and watch events (such as they are) unfold, I can’t help but compare how my predictions (as of course I had to make a few) have turned out in the reality of the current political climate.
One thing I got entirely wrong was the voting system. In The Devil I suggested that the pig that was the 2015 Reform Bill would pass, giving Hong Kong a smidgeon of democracy where voting for all would be permissible, so long as it was only for candidates who had been pre-screened by a Beijing controlled nomination committee. However, even that smidgeon has been denied to us. Instead we are left with the existing system (which isn’t even a pretense at democracy) where an Election Committee of 1,200 pre-selected voters who supposedly represent Hong Kong society, get to decide on Beijing’s anointed candidate.
A major pat on the back I deserve, however, is for predicting how uninspiring the candidates were going to be. At the outset of The Devil the poor old electorate is left with a choice between a cardboard Financial Secretary and a wooden Chief Secretary. Here, I’ve been pretty much spot on, as we seem to be moving towards an unstimulating showdown between Financial Secretary, John Tsang and his government colleague Chief Secretary, Carrie Lam (being the one everyone knows Beijing prefers and who is almost, therefore, a shoe-in for victory).
Fact has also met fiction in the way the entire election is being generally received by the public. The collective feeling seems to be one of “yeah, whatever”. Nobody seems to give two hoots and why would they, given that 99% of the script has already been written. In addition, it really is hard to tell the difference between Carrie Lam and John Tsang. Both have spent their careers as government civil servants. Both vaunt their experience, but their experience is exactly the same and, as such, more of the same is all we can expect whoever ends up winning.
To be fair there are two other candidates trying to muscle in on Lam and Tsang’s action. One is Regina Ip, who also spent many years in government. Her last government post, in fact, was as the security secretary who tried to force Article 23 (the anti-subversion section of the Basic Law) down the Hong Kong population’s throat in 2003. This prompted the famous July 1st March, which saw half a million people take to the streets in protest (an event recounted in the The Devil). Ip was forced to resign, but has since reinvented herself as a LegCo politician founding her own party. One can’t help worrying, however, that once in government she will revert to form, just like the other two, so again it will be a case of ‘same-old, same-old’.
Then there’s ex-judge Wu who was the first to throw his hat into the ring. Nobody really gives Wu much of a chance and although his background is different, compared to the other three, I for one feel a bit disappointed to see a judge cross the line into politics. A judiciary only works when it is entirely impartial and above political considerations, so the image of an ex-judge running for election does Hong Kong’s rule-of-law a disservice, especially when (let’s face it) he’s not going to be in the final shake up.
What we are missing is a credible candidate from the Democratic camp throwing down a challenge to the Election Committee with a real alternative which offers Hong Kong the change it so desperately needs. The plot in The Devil sees such a last minute entry from a strong Democratic candidate who has the full backing of the free press and, in fiction at least, it really stirred things up. I based the intervening candidate very loosely on Audrey Yu who isn’t from the abhorrent fire-breathing arm of the Democratic spectrum in Hong Kong, but is someone who persuades by reasoned eloquence and intelligence. Oh Audrey, how I wish you’d run!
Instead, the only Democrat who seems prepared to step into the fray is Long Hair, whose radicalism appears almost mainstream nowadays, because of the rise of the Hong Kong nativists advocating independence, such is the pitiful state of Hong Kong’s polity. Don’t get me wrong, I like Long Hair and despite his image, when you see him interviewed you realize he can certainly more than hold his own in a debate. But he does the Democrats no favours by declaring his candidacy because he prevents other more credible options (like Audrey) coming forward.
And so we are left with the shackles of past experience, in the guise of likely winner Carrie Lam (as she has Beijing’s backing) with either John Tsang or Regina Ip doing the noble job of straw person. Past experience, however, has completely failed so it’s not too difficult to predict what the future holds if past experience is the only option available.
I always thought that those right-wing neo-conservatives in the US who couldn’t stand any form of government intervening in the normal operation of society, were completely bonkers. In Hong Kong, however, with this set of candidates on offer, I think they may have a point. If that’s what our government has to offer, then I say it should just go away and leave us alone.
As for the result of the 2017 CE election in The Devil You Know? Well, I don’t want to give away the ending, but I suspect it is certainly very different from what we are going to see in reality come March. And Hong Kong will be much poorer for it.
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