Markets and Outliers

The ‘market’ part of the real estate market rears its head at the most annoying times.


When some people want to acquire something – a stock, a house – and others wish to sell it, we have a market. The price depends on the supply (how many available to buy) and demand (how people wish to buy) of the item.


Let’s look at a house in Hillsboro, valued at $300,000. A buyer can’t buy it at $200,000 because six people behind him are willing to pay the full price. And the seller can’t sell it for $400,000 because six sellers behind him are willing to sell at $300,000. We’ve got a market price.


Small things influence this. A home with a lake view will be more desirable and likely command a higher price. There is a dollar amount, however, where buyers will choose the less expensive versions. As more buyers enter the market or less houses go up for sale, prices rise. When more homes enter the market or less people want to buy, prices fall.


 


Outliers are the fringe of the market. The normal flow is not there, making them less predictable – sort of like a defiant child. They won’t behave as they should and can even throw the occasional tantrum. Simply put, these are portions of the market with significantly less buyers and sellers, greatly impacting the usual ebb and flow.


One example is luxury homes – those selling for a million dollars and more. A six thousand square foot house on a wooded lot with a lakefront beach may well comp out (compare with similar properties) at two million dollars – but fewer people have the means to purchase it. The sheer volume of this outlier means its behavior is far less predictable. The house very likely will sit on the market far longer than its $300,000 cousin. This type of property may require more patience and a specialized marketing plan.


Another outlier can be land, especially with above a certain size or with less sought-after zoning. While an acre intended to build a single house may be more common, 30 acres zoned for industrial use could prove less so.


When dealing with outliers, you need to keep perspective. Instead of asking, ‘what is the market value?’ and ‘what should the other person do?’, ask, ‘what is it worth to me?’ The seller may believe his luxury home is worth two million, but if an offer comes in for one point six, he might be better off to accept.


Too often we react to the idea of someone ‘beating’ us in a deal without considering what we ourselves would gain.


Is it better to let the house go and move on? Are you trying to move to  a new place, or need cash now? Are you happy living in the home, and merely wanted to try the market? Can you afford to stay, either wait for a better offer or withdraw and enjoy your life?


The buyer needs to ask the same questions. If the seller won’t meet his price, should he go higher? Ignore what your head insists is the fair value – do you want the property? Can you afford it? Are you happier moving on, looking for alternatives, or was this just absolutely perfect for you? If you’re doing this for business, how does it affect your bottom line?


Never mind what it’s worth to the other side – what is its value to you?


Outliers can be opportunities. The key is determining the property’s value for yourself. And if the other guy makes out well, so be it. That’s creating good karma atop getting what you want.


And that sounds like a win to me.

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Published on May 16, 2018 14:27
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