Weekly Faction Forecast: October 12 to October 16, 2020

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We closeout this week with the final two matches in the Quarter Finals. Brendan Meyer put up a fight against Adam Collins with a tied score of twenty-five points in the final round. They each correctly answered three questions in overtime but on the fourth question, Brendan stumbled and Adam took the win for Korruption. Both Ethan and Tom managed to pitch a perfect Round One, but Tom fell behind as he went to multiple choice for most of his questions in Round Two in the category of 70’s Movies. Ethan was perfect in the category of Cate Blanchett and stole a point. Ethan ended up winning in the final round with a score twenty-three to twenty-one.





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Liz Shannon Miller vs Adam Collins will be available for patrons at the $5+ tiers on Monday, Tuesday for the $2-tier, and made available for everyone on Thursday. With Adam missing only one question in every match in Round One, has an accuracy rate on 93%, and has TKO/KO three out of his four matches, he should have plenty of confidence that he’ll be in the finals. However, Liz will have to make him earn his win since she took out William Bibbiani, Chance Ellison, and Rachel Silvestrini.





On Friday, we’ll get Erwin vs Sneider II and this could destroy each competitors’ faction. Assuming the winner goes to the Finals and Spectacular, the competitor who loses would eliminate, at most, fourteen points (six points in the tournament, five points at Spectacular, and three points from potential TKOs/KOs) from RoxStars or The Usual Suspects’ Faction Threshold Range. (See graph down below). If Jeff wins, The Usual Suspect will have a high-threshold of forty-three points and will be knocked out of the race, based on current information. If Ethan wins, RoxStars will have a fifty-five point threshold and will still be in the race but they’ll be hanging by a threat.





Three announcements were made this week:





Grae Drake will make her long awaited return to the Schmoedown facing Sassy Stacey Howard in the undercard for the Teams Title Match and, assumingly, it will be worth two points.All Title Matches at Spectacular will be worth five points.Kevin Smith’s next match will be at Spectacular against Brett Sheridan.



This gives several factions a chance to catchup or gain a greater lead. Unfortunately, there are several factions that can’t do either since they’re at the bottom of the rankings, but they can avoid coming in last place.





To give every faction the best chance possible, I calculated a Faction Threshold Range, which is the range of points for a faction in every match they will or possibly be in. Here is how to read the bars:





Current scores are the lowest set of values.The middle values are the forecasted values for each faction if they win all their matches without TKOs/KOs.The highest values assumes every match will contain TKOs/KOs.



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The idea is if a faction’s highest value is below another’s current score that faction is out of the points-race. Keep in mind, these figures are based on matches that have been announced and everything stated could change if more information becomes available.





The Den, The Dungeon, and The Burning Droogs are fighting for last place and are currently out of the points-race. As mentioned above, The Usual Suspects and the RoxStars might be joining them after Friday’s match. The Quirky Mercs still have a chance to catch the leaders as long as they win the Teams Tournament, the Teams Title Match with Korruption, and all of their Spectacular matches. The Finstock Exchange are really in trouble if they don’t start winning their matches.





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Published on October 09, 2020 21:59
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