Who among the writers of our time will be read and quoted in 2123?
By Mouloud Benzadi, author, researcher and translator based in the UK
In 2021, a study discovered that the UK housed approximately 85.3 thousand writers and authors, while the United States boasted over 49.4 thousand. Among this vast pool of literary talent, a captivating question emerges: who among them, along with writers from around the world, will endure the test of time and retain their popularity in 2123? How can a writer achieve eternal fame? And can we accurately predict literary fame?
Literary fame is unpredictable
In 1929, The Manchester Guardian (now known as The Guardian) conducted a poll among its readers to determine the "novelists who may be read in 2029." Topping the list of popularity was novelist and playwright John Galsworthy with 1,180 votes, followed by H. G. Wells (933), Arnold Bennett (654), Rudyard Kipling (455), and J. M. Barrie (286). John Galsworthy, an Englishman, achieved global recognition for his writings and received the prestigious Nobel Prize in Literature in 1932.
However, nearly a century later, it turned out that the prediction was inaccurate. Today, all these novelists are relatively unknown or unpopular, despite their once-universal fame. The Manchester Guardian Poll raises intriguing questions: Why do some writers attain everlasting fame while others fade into obscurity? Why do writers who were immensely popular in their time lose their fame? And does the 1929 Poll signify that, unlike the predictability of the economy, science, politics, and the weather, literary fame remains unpredictable?
To answer these questions, we must explore the ways in which writers attain fame and delve into history for potential clues.
Literary awards
Literary awards hold significant importance in today's publishing industry. Prestigious prizes generate headlines, generate public interest, and contribute to increased book sales. They provide valuable exposure for authors. However, along with their benefits, there are also drawbacks to consider. History has shown us that literary book awards have often been seen as the quickest and easiest path to global fame. They have propelled numerous authors to stardom. Yet, this fame often fades after their death—unlike the likes of William Shakespeare, Jane Austen, or Charles Dickens, who never won any awards but are still revered as the greatest writers of all time.
Another disadvantage of literary prizes is that they can lead authors to write with the aim of pleasing a specific committee, rather than spreading messages of love, tolerance, peace, and serving humanity. Literary awards have perpetually stirred controversy, and their validity has often been questioned due to the subjective nature of criteria used to assess book merit. This raises pertinent questions: How can five judges determine the best book of the year without reading each and every book published? While some fortunate authors may participate in award competitions, others may never get the opportunity due to stringent nomination and selection processes. Moreover, when the same books are submitted to different panels, different winners may emerge, casting doubt on the judges' decisions.
Furthermore, literary awards offer no guarantee of enduring fame. Few readers today are familiar with authors who won the Nobel Prize in literature in the past, such as those from the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, or even the 1990s. However, names like William Shakespeare, Charles Dickens, Victor Hugo, or Jean-Paul Sartre, who stood the test of time without winning prestigious prizes, remain universally recognized. The saturation of awards and the aforementioned drawbacks raise pertinent questions: How long will literary awards persist before their inevitable decline? And when will the world begin seeking more credible and realistic alternatives to replace them?
Social networks
Internet fame is taking the front page by storm. New authors are finding fame online, attracting followers and engagement. Social media platforms offer new writers virtually unlimited opportunities. They provide writers with the chance to reach audiences and expand their global readership. These platforms create an engaging space that allows writers to interact with their readers, who often become their loyal friends. Additionally, social media platforms help writers promote their books and serve as a lucrative way to access international markets and sell their works.
Thanks to the emergence of social media, the world of literature is no longer controlled solely by elites. Anyone and everyone can now write, contribute to world literature, and connect with audiences across the globe.
A recent study conducted by Columbia Business School, as reported by Artsy, sheds light on the role of social networks in predicting fame. The study, titled "The Art of Fame", found that individuals with a diverse network of personal and professional contacts from different industries are statistically more likely to achieve fame.
Universal Appeal
Authors possess the ability to explore a vast array of subjects within the universe of literature. They have the freedom to craft stories based on real-life events or delve into the realms of imaginative fiction. Nonetheless, throughout history, it can be observed that remarkable literary works often center around universal themes that resonate with a broad readership. These themes encompass topics such as life, death, war, peace, hate, love, pain, lust, and revenge, capturing the attention of readers from diverse backgrounds and appealing to different age groups.
Even in the present day, the profound resonance of Charles Dickens' works endures. His narratives continue to captivate contemporary readers due to their timeless themes that remain relevant in our lives. While times may change and language may evolve, the essence of the situations, emotions, and human experience that Dickens portrayed has persevered across centuries. These themes transcend generations and serve as a reflection of people's lives. The BBC astutely describes this enduring appeal, stating, "This is why the world still loves Charles Dickens. Amongst all the famous Victorian authors, Charles Dickens retains a place in public affections throughout the world, and Americans adore him as if he were their own. Perhaps this Is because Dickens wrote from the heart; he wrote about emotions and situations that people still identify with today. Although the English language has changed since Dickens’ time, the essence of his storytelling remains as relevant as it was in the 19th Century.”
The ability to inspire
Likewise, history teaches us that great works of literature are those that can inspire others. Great writers are those who can inspire other writers, not just in their own time, but also those who come afterwards. Their influence can last for decades or even centuries, increasing their chances of becoming eternal.
Authors do not necessarily achieve eternal fame through famous books alone. They can also inspire generations through their power of words and thoughts. Powerful literary quotes can survive for centuries, reminding every generation of their authors. Hamlet's quote "to be or not to be" has been used for centuries. Unlike books that can contain hundreds of pages, quotations are a simple way to convey an idea. They are concise, interesting, intriguing, and above all, memorable. They are used to support arguments.
Books, including those written by famous authors, may sit unread on forgotten shelves, attracting dust rather than readers' attention. Memorable literary quotes can stand the test of time, fascinating and inspiring people generation after generation.
As the pace of life accelerates, people are more likely to know authors through short, inspiring quotes than long, time-consuming books.
The Guardian's poll shows that, unlike economic forecasts, literary fame can be hard to predict. But this prediction is not entirely impossible. Noted Howard Marks pens, "the key to dealing with the future lies in knowing where you are, even if you can't know precisely where you're going." History has taught us that writers can pass the test of time without winning any awards, as evidenced by Shakespeare, Jane Austen, and Charles Dickens, to name a few. History has also taught us, through the 1929 Guardian's poll experience, that being very popular in a particular period does not guarantee eternal fame. And we now know through John Galsworthy's experience that winning a prestigious prize does not guarantee eternal fame.
By knowing where the writers stand, the themes they integrate into their works, and the level of influence they have on others, we certainly stand a good chance of predicting who is more likely to stand the test of time. And in the end, the question remains: Who among the writers of our time will still be read, quoted, and remembered in 2123?
In 2021, a study discovered that the UK housed approximately 85.3 thousand writers and authors, while the United States boasted over 49.4 thousand. Among this vast pool of literary talent, a captivating question emerges: who among them, along with writers from around the world, will endure the test of time and retain their popularity in 2123? How can a writer achieve eternal fame? And can we accurately predict literary fame?
Literary fame is unpredictable
In 1929, The Manchester Guardian (now known as The Guardian) conducted a poll among its readers to determine the "novelists who may be read in 2029." Topping the list of popularity was novelist and playwright John Galsworthy with 1,180 votes, followed by H. G. Wells (933), Arnold Bennett (654), Rudyard Kipling (455), and J. M. Barrie (286). John Galsworthy, an Englishman, achieved global recognition for his writings and received the prestigious Nobel Prize in Literature in 1932.
However, nearly a century later, it turned out that the prediction was inaccurate. Today, all these novelists are relatively unknown or unpopular, despite their once-universal fame. The Manchester Guardian Poll raises intriguing questions: Why do some writers attain everlasting fame while others fade into obscurity? Why do writers who were immensely popular in their time lose their fame? And does the 1929 Poll signify that, unlike the predictability of the economy, science, politics, and the weather, literary fame remains unpredictable?
To answer these questions, we must explore the ways in which writers attain fame and delve into history for potential clues.
Literary awards
Literary awards hold significant importance in today's publishing industry. Prestigious prizes generate headlines, generate public interest, and contribute to increased book sales. They provide valuable exposure for authors. However, along with their benefits, there are also drawbacks to consider. History has shown us that literary book awards have often been seen as the quickest and easiest path to global fame. They have propelled numerous authors to stardom. Yet, this fame often fades after their death—unlike the likes of William Shakespeare, Jane Austen, or Charles Dickens, who never won any awards but are still revered as the greatest writers of all time.
Another disadvantage of literary prizes is that they can lead authors to write with the aim of pleasing a specific committee, rather than spreading messages of love, tolerance, peace, and serving humanity. Literary awards have perpetually stirred controversy, and their validity has often been questioned due to the subjective nature of criteria used to assess book merit. This raises pertinent questions: How can five judges determine the best book of the year without reading each and every book published? While some fortunate authors may participate in award competitions, others may never get the opportunity due to stringent nomination and selection processes. Moreover, when the same books are submitted to different panels, different winners may emerge, casting doubt on the judges' decisions.
Furthermore, literary awards offer no guarantee of enduring fame. Few readers today are familiar with authors who won the Nobel Prize in literature in the past, such as those from the 1930s, 1940s, 1950s, or even the 1990s. However, names like William Shakespeare, Charles Dickens, Victor Hugo, or Jean-Paul Sartre, who stood the test of time without winning prestigious prizes, remain universally recognized. The saturation of awards and the aforementioned drawbacks raise pertinent questions: How long will literary awards persist before their inevitable decline? And when will the world begin seeking more credible and realistic alternatives to replace them?
Social networks
Internet fame is taking the front page by storm. New authors are finding fame online, attracting followers and engagement. Social media platforms offer new writers virtually unlimited opportunities. They provide writers with the chance to reach audiences and expand their global readership. These platforms create an engaging space that allows writers to interact with their readers, who often become their loyal friends. Additionally, social media platforms help writers promote their books and serve as a lucrative way to access international markets and sell their works.
Thanks to the emergence of social media, the world of literature is no longer controlled solely by elites. Anyone and everyone can now write, contribute to world literature, and connect with audiences across the globe.
A recent study conducted by Columbia Business School, as reported by Artsy, sheds light on the role of social networks in predicting fame. The study, titled "The Art of Fame", found that individuals with a diverse network of personal and professional contacts from different industries are statistically more likely to achieve fame.
Universal Appeal
Authors possess the ability to explore a vast array of subjects within the universe of literature. They have the freedom to craft stories based on real-life events or delve into the realms of imaginative fiction. Nonetheless, throughout history, it can be observed that remarkable literary works often center around universal themes that resonate with a broad readership. These themes encompass topics such as life, death, war, peace, hate, love, pain, lust, and revenge, capturing the attention of readers from diverse backgrounds and appealing to different age groups.
Even in the present day, the profound resonance of Charles Dickens' works endures. His narratives continue to captivate contemporary readers due to their timeless themes that remain relevant in our lives. While times may change and language may evolve, the essence of the situations, emotions, and human experience that Dickens portrayed has persevered across centuries. These themes transcend generations and serve as a reflection of people's lives. The BBC astutely describes this enduring appeal, stating, "This is why the world still loves Charles Dickens. Amongst all the famous Victorian authors, Charles Dickens retains a place in public affections throughout the world, and Americans adore him as if he were their own. Perhaps this Is because Dickens wrote from the heart; he wrote about emotions and situations that people still identify with today. Although the English language has changed since Dickens’ time, the essence of his storytelling remains as relevant as it was in the 19th Century.”
The ability to inspire
Likewise, history teaches us that great works of literature are those that can inspire others. Great writers are those who can inspire other writers, not just in their own time, but also those who come afterwards. Their influence can last for decades or even centuries, increasing their chances of becoming eternal.
Authors do not necessarily achieve eternal fame through famous books alone. They can also inspire generations through their power of words and thoughts. Powerful literary quotes can survive for centuries, reminding every generation of their authors. Hamlet's quote "to be or not to be" has been used for centuries. Unlike books that can contain hundreds of pages, quotations are a simple way to convey an idea. They are concise, interesting, intriguing, and above all, memorable. They are used to support arguments.
Books, including those written by famous authors, may sit unread on forgotten shelves, attracting dust rather than readers' attention. Memorable literary quotes can stand the test of time, fascinating and inspiring people generation after generation.
As the pace of life accelerates, people are more likely to know authors through short, inspiring quotes than long, time-consuming books.
The Guardian's poll shows that, unlike economic forecasts, literary fame can be hard to predict. But this prediction is not entirely impossible. Noted Howard Marks pens, "the key to dealing with the future lies in knowing where you are, even if you can't know precisely where you're going." History has taught us that writers can pass the test of time without winning any awards, as evidenced by Shakespeare, Jane Austen, and Charles Dickens, to name a few. History has also taught us, through the 1929 Guardian's poll experience, that being very popular in a particular period does not guarantee eternal fame. And we now know through John Galsworthy's experience that winning a prestigious prize does not guarantee eternal fame.
By knowing where the writers stand, the themes they integrate into their works, and the level of influence they have on others, we certainly stand a good chance of predicting who is more likely to stand the test of time. And in the end, the question remains: Who among the writers of our time will still be read, quoted, and remembered in 2123?
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