Thinking about the future
A book such as 'From 9 to 5: The Life and Work of Solomon Isarebe' requires the author to look forward in to the future.
The future is of course unknowable, but there are things you can do to reduce the uncertainty. First and foremost one needs to study history, for in history lies the secrets of the future. Unless you assume humans, demographics, the economy, culture and business will be operating with a completely different set of rules, then history can provide us with a framework for thinking about long-term futures. These rules can be formal, such as in population models or economic models, or less formal, in for example understanding political responses to crises.
There is one assumption that I think all forecasters should adhere to: people will not be going to the shops in personal aeroplanes or jet packs. I base this very personal assumption on my experience of driving and crashing bicycles, motorbikes and cars. You don't want me in a jet pack!
The future is of course unknowable, but there are things you can do to reduce the uncertainty. First and foremost one needs to study history, for in history lies the secrets of the future. Unless you assume humans, demographics, the economy, culture and business will be operating with a completely different set of rules, then history can provide us with a framework for thinking about long-term futures. These rules can be formal, such as in population models or economic models, or less formal, in for example understanding political responses to crises.
There is one assumption that I think all forecasters should adhere to: people will not be going to the shops in personal aeroplanes or jet packs. I base this very personal assumption on my experience of driving and crashing bicycles, motorbikes and cars. You don't want me in a jet pack!
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