On one hand, no more safe seats or long careers could mean less complacency. On the other, no big parties could mean greater corporate influence

Politics as we have known it in Britain for more than a century seems to be falling apart. Only six years ago, at the 2019 election, the Conservatives and Labour got 76% of the vote between them, coming first and second in both votes and seats, as they have at every general election since 1922. Yet in most opinion polls now, the two parties around which politics is usually arranged at Westminster, in the media, and in the minds of millions of voters, activists and party donors have a combined support of less than 40%.

Not only has Reform UK surged well past them, Labour and the Tories are no longer consistently ahead of the Greens and Liberal Democrats – and sometimes level with them, or even narrowly behind. With an inexperienced, hard-right populist party dominating, and an equally unprecedented four-way battle to be Reform’s main challenger, British politics appears to be assuming a strange and volatile new shape.

Andy Beckett is a Guardian columnist