Crypto crashes 13 per cent as Fed rate cut hopes fade, S&P 500 correlation hits 0.95
Anndy Lian
Crypto crashes 13 per cent as Fed rate cut hopes fade, S&P 500 correlation hits 0.95
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market shed 3.51 per cent, extending a punishing 13 per cent weekly decline driven by a confluence of macroeconomic headwinds, cascading derivatives liquidations, and a dramatic collapse in trader sentiment. This sell-off exemplifies how tightly interwoven crypto has become with traditional financial systems, particularly as correlations with equities have deepened to levels not seen in months.
Monday’s performance in US equities underscored this linkage, with the Dow Jones falling 1.18 per cent, the S&P 500 down 0.92 per cent, and the Nasdaq slipping 0.84 per cent, as technology stocks led the retreat. These losses emerged alongside diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which had previously provided some support to risk assets. The recalibration of Fed expectations followed strong US economic data, which reinforced concerns about persistent inflation and delayed the anticipated pivot toward monetary easing.
The shifting macroeconomic landscape was further reflected in movements across fixed-income and foreign exchange markets. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined modestly by 1.0 basis point to settle at 4.139 per cent, while the two-year yield edged higher by 0.4 basis points to 3.610 per cent, signalling a slight flattening of the yield curve. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index gained 0.29 per cent to close at 99.588, adding pressure on non-dollar assets.
Gold, often viewed as a safe haven, dropped 1.0 per cent to US$4044.96 per ounce, weighed down by both the stronger dollar and receding hopes for near-term rate cuts, which typically support precious metals by lowering opportunity costs. In energy markets, Brent crude settled slightly lower at US$64.20 per barrel, recovering marginally as loadings resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export terminal following a brief suspension caused by a Ukrainian drone strike. Across Asia, equities finished the session mixed but turned lower in early Tuesday trading, though US index futures pointed to a modest recovery at the open, suggesting some short-term stabilisation may be on the horizon.
The crypto downturn lies a powerful macro risk-off dynamic that has pulled digital assets into the same downdraft affecting equities. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price correlation with the S&P 500 surged to 0.95, its highest since June 2025. This near-perfect synchronisation underscores how traders increasingly treat crypto not as an uncorrelated alternative asset but as a high-beta extension of the broader risk spectrum. The catalyst for this shift came from revised market pricing around Federal Reserve policy. Stronger-than-expected economic indicators have tempered expectations for a December rate cut, pushing the implied probability lower and driving the 10-year Treasury yield up by 14 basis points over recent sessions.
This tightening of financial conditions has hit speculative assets especially hard. Bitcoin’s breach below the psychologically critical US$91,500 level triggered a wave of algorithmic stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline and dragging down major altcoins such as Solana and Cardano, which posted weekly losses of 21.7 per cent and 22.4 per cent, respectively. The market now awaits pivotal upcoming events, the release of the November 20 Fed meeting minutes, and Nvidia’s earnings report on November 21, for further directional cues. Any sign of continued economic resilience or hawkish Fed rhetoric could prolong risk aversion.
Compounding the macro pressure, a violent unwind in crypto derivatives markets has magnified losses through forced liquidations. Trading volume in perpetual futures contracts spiked by 45.6 per cent to an astonishing US$423 trillion over 24 hours, reflecting frantic hedging and position adjustments. Simultaneously, total open interest in the derivatives market fell by 7.4 per cent, now standing at US$787 billion, down 8.4 per cent in a single day. This contraction signals a rapid deleveraging as overextended positions were forcibly closed. Options markets mirrored this bearish sentiment, with US$740 million in put options placed targeting a Bitcoin price of US$90,000 and Ethereum at US$2,800.
Funding rates for major altcoins also turned negative, with the average rate dipping to minus 0.0019775, which disincentivises holding long positions and encourages further shorting. This feedback loop of rising volatility, liquidations, and negative funding creates a self-reinforcing cycle that can deepen sell-offs beyond what fundamentals alone would justify. Market participants now watch open interest closely, as a continued decline could signal capitulation, potentially setting the stage for a relief rally once leverage is sufficiently purged.
Perhaps most telling is the collapse in market psychology, captured starkly by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which plunged to 15, entering “Extreme Fear” territory. This marks the lowest reading since March 2025, a period that ultimately coincided with a market bottom when Bitcoin found support near US$76,000. Retail investors, overwhelmed by the speed and severity of the decline, have fled to the perceived safety of stablecoins, pushing Tether’s dominance to 7.2 per cent, a 30-day high. Social sentiment has turned sharply negative, with average daily scores falling to 4.29 out of 10, and viral commentary reflecting deep pessimism toward even leading altcoins.
Phrases like “Solana’s fuel is running out” have gained traction, illustrating how quickly narrative momentum can reverse in stressed markets. Historically, sustained readings below 20 on the Fear & Greed Index have often preceded short-term bounces, as excessive fear creates oversold conditions ripe for contrarian positioning. However, such rebounds typically require a catalyst, and in the current environment, that catalyst remains uncertain.
Technically, Bitcoin’s daily RSI has plummeted to 9.05, a level that suggests extreme oversold conditions rarely seen outside major market dislocations. This raises the possibility of a reflexive bounce, particularly if macro conditions stabilise or if institutional buyers step in near key support levels. El Salvador recently deployed over US$100 million in purchases at the US$90,000 level, suggesting strong hands view this zone as a strategic entry point. Whether Bitcoin can hold this critical threshold in the face of ongoing liquidations and macro uncertainty will likely determine near-term market direction.
In summary, the current crypto sell-off is not an isolated event, but rather part of a broader reassessment of risk across global markets. It reflects the convergence of three powerful forces: a macro regime shift driven by sticky inflation and delayed monetary easing, a violent derivatives-driven deleveraging, and a collapse in market sentiment that has pushed fear to multi-month extremes.
While technical indicators hint at potential exhaustion, any sustainable recovery will depend on a stabilisation in equity markets, a reduction in liquidation pressure, and a recalibration of Fed expectations. Until then, the path of least resistance for crypto remains downward, with US$90,000 standing as the last line of defence before deeper levels come into play.
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