The Wave Russia Tried to Erase: What I Saw at the Edge of Europe
Europe has a place where over 1,000 years of contentious history bottlenecks into 300 meters of water. Where democracy and dictatorship stare at each other from stone walls. Where old men fish on both banks while armed guards watch their every movement.
There are some borders in Europe where you can feel before you ever see them. Like when the air grows heavy before an impending storm. The Narva, Estonian and Ivangorod, Russian border is one of them.
Same planet on both sides.
Same river.
Same families.
Different worlds.
I came to Estonia expecting some fun, but also a serious research trip.
Instead, we rode comfortably past, oblivious as Russia seized a boat in retaliation, sent a Belarusian biker gang to perform propaganda in Estonia, an EU and NATO country, broadcast disinformation across the water, and then send border or castle security guards sprinting after a man simply for waving at me.
Everything about Russia’s hybrid warfare snapped into focus that day. And what many in the West get wrong about the Baltics and Balkans everyday reality. Along with a grim look into the possible near future of the region, whilst revealing what causes authoritarian regimes panic.
The Journey to Estonia
I had sarcastically joked to my Panamanian Romanian friend who lived in Tallinn; I needed to visit whilst Estonia was still free and, in the EU, and NATO. It was May 2025, I had some time, wanted to see a cool friend, check out a country I’d never been to, and start a new research project.
Eagerly I played with dates and connections for decent priced airfare, trying to stay within my frequent flyer membership to maximize comfort and get a free check-in bag on my ticket.
Found a deal with SAS connecting in Sweden. A country which doesn’t share a border with Russia but has increasingly felt the paid of hybrid warfare. From both Russia and China.
Flying over the pristine looking thousands of islands that are part of Sweden was fantastic. Beautiful, deep, gemstone like waters, glistening in the late spring sunlight. A short connection then off to Tallinn, Estonia.
https://medium.com/media/c538684479d2f8c53da3ac46b1ffdb8d/hrefTallinn
My friend suggested I stay at the classic hotel, once a KGB listening station in Tallinn, Estonia. Sounded great and how could I resist?!
[image error]Chris Kubecka KGB Museum Tallinn, EstoniaThere were tensions in the air in Tallinn, an anxious sense of what would happen next. But strong support for Ukraine. We walked past the Russian Embassy and I snapped a pic of all the pro-Ukrainian displays on the outside security fence of the building.
[image error]Chris Kubecka Russian Embassy, Estonia May 2025Estonia had once been occupied by the Soviet Union, to disastrous effect to the Estonians, until the end of communism. Surveillance in the city felt much higher than my hometown of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Rightly so, given the Tallinn’s history. Enjoying the nice weather, we walked and fell upon the Chinese Embassy to Estonia. Instantly I noted the numerous cameras the embassy had installed and grabbed some video of one side of the embassy.
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The Journey to Narva
[image error]https://www.orangesmile.com/travelguide/estonia/country-maps-sights.htmStarting out rather early, my least favourite time of day. We hopped onto our comfortable LuxExpress route 759 to St. Petersburg, Russia. Our journey taking us along the coast eastward to Narva, Estonia.
https://medium.com/media/acdbd1b7f3360639ec72e7d2094c827d/href[image error]Chris Kubecka, Bus to Narva and St Petersburg 759 Outside[image error]Chris Kubecka, Bus to Narva and St Petersburg, 759 InteriorAs we moved closer to Narva, the tension outside the bus wasn’t theoretical, it was unfolding live. Just an hour or so before we reached the border, Russia seized a boat out of Estonian waters, in a retaliatory stunt after Estonia inspected a suspicious vessel coming from Russian waters a week before.
A seizure in direct response to a lawful inspection.
Hybrid warfare in on the high seas.
And it happened at the port nearest Narva, the very place we were driving toward.
Russia wasn’t just posturing.
It was performing.
And we were rolling straight into the theatre.
The “Patriotic” Concert
When I arrived in Narva, I had a light snack, then checked into my hotel. Walking and dragging my luggage about a kilometre. It was too early to just tuck in after arriving the time of day I did. I headed out to check out the town, relax and take some pics and video like a proper tourist. There was a small park and monument that overlooked the water, river between the two countries. Below was another, larger park in-between the castle.
There was some pretty nice sounding music at first, in Russian. A small crowd. Tired, but curious I walked down the hill to investigate.
A Belarusian pro-Russian biker gang, one of those “cultural groups” Moscow pretends are hobbyists. Was wrapping up a concert in the park directly below the castle.
Russian flags.
Patriotic ballads.
Performers sponsored, quietly, by the same networks that fuel Russian influence operations across Europe.
I believe they were calling themselves the Grey Wolves or something close.
Their presence wasn’t accidental.
It was curated, a psychological message placed precisely where Estonia meets Russia, where Moscow knows every gesture is symbolic.
And because life is stranger than geopolitics, one of the main biker figures was staying at my spa hotel.
We ended up talking in the spa like neighbours who happened to share a sauna, a conversation that shifted from small talk to quiet probing within seconds. He did seem to be quite chatty whilst drinking and talking directly to my boobs. But his conversation opened a door into some of the intimidation faced by border towns, with Russia desperately trying town and keep hearts and minds. Especially among ethnic Russians border populations.
Welcome to Narva, Estonia
[image error]Chris Kubecka, Narva Estonia Sign May 2025Russia Doesn’t Fear Peace Plans. It Fears paperwork.
The Narva, Estonia and Ivangorod, Russia isn’t just a border crossing.
It’s a funnel.
On the buses, cars and taxis approaching that checkpoint from St. Petersburg, there were numerous Ukrainians carrying folders with:
large luggageproperty deedsland documentsfamily photoshouse keysnotarized letterswitness statementsThey weren’t going to Russia.
They were passing through Russia.
Because for many displaced families, the only way to reach their own homes in occupied Ukraine is through the country that stole them in the first place.
Russia passed a law that Ukrainians must claim any property in Eastern Ukraine, Occupied Ukraine in person. Placing them at high risk of detainment, exposure to massive Russian corruption, phone searches, etc. In the long border line, I see there are very few children.
https://medium.com/media/e46009fd3313cf6f12d446c7d5564da9/hrefThat is what Russia fears being exposed:
the stolen apartmentsthe seized homesthe looted businessesthe trucks driven awaythe cars taken at checkpointsthe land “re-registered” under occupation officialsthe properties handed to Russian citizens as “relocation incentives”Every deed is a war crime.
Every title is a paperwork.
And Russia hates paperwork. Because paperwork has led to many, many war crime inditements.
2G & Other Heavy Surveillance
That’s Narva.
A border town where intelligence, influence, and everyday life intersect so closely that you inhale them together. The situation is so heavy, the government has been warning about increased interest by Russian intelligence service in Estonia.
So heavy is the atmosphere, surveillance, hybrid warfare and disinformation campaigns, The topic has its own Wikipedia article about the topic.
I quickly noted on my mobile; the internet connection was 2G. This in 2025 typically indicates quite old, insecure mobile internet connections or purposeful downgrading to the old version for surveillance. I suspect it was the later from the Estonian side. 2G has no real encryption by default and gives away a good deal of information or what intelligence organizations would call SIGINT. Funny enough, the Russian choice of mobile providers my mobile phone offered me was 2G- 3G. As if trying to tempt me towards slightly faster Russian and most certainly heavily surveilled communications.
[image error]Narva available mobile connections, by Chris Kubecka May 2025Fishing
Nowhere in Europe does geography compress politics into such a narrow channel as Narva–Ivangorod. The river between them which feels more like a psychological boundary than a physical one.
https://medium.com/media/2f01f0a11259044e5337576442737446/hrefEvery morning, depending on the weather, older men come out to fish on both sides of the river.
Same ritual.
Same rhythm.
Same water.
Most of them are probably related somewhere down a family line that predates the collapse of the Soviet Union, cousins divided by geopolitics, borders, and propaganda, but still united by the instinct to cast a line at dawn.
On the Estonian side, it feels almost peaceful, a maintained park-like area, open, green, intentionally accessible. You can sit comfortably, set up your rod, breathe.
On the Russian side, it’s the same men, the same river, but a different universe.
Heavy barbed wire coils down to the waterline.
Concrete barriers and rusting fences choke the bank.
There are only a few gaps where people are allowed to descend, narrow, controlled, watched. Even from across the river, the space feels tense, monitored, almost menacing.
It’s the perfect metaphor for the entire border:
same humanity, different system.
Standing on the Estonian bank, Russia is right there, shockingly close.
Close enough to see expressions.
Close enough to see guards pacing.
Close enough to watch one man wave, and another be dragged away.
You don’t expect an authoritarian state to be only a short cast away across a fishing line.
And yet there it is.
The Hybrid Warfare Russia Aims at Its Own People
Standing at Narva, you feel another reality:
the propaganda beams that Russia fires across the river daily like a weapon system.
High-quality disinformation.
AI-generated testimonies.
Synthetic videos with fake Estonian soldiers.
Deepfakes of “atrocities.”
Warnings of “NATO invasion.”
Content engineered to terrorize ethnic Russians living just meters away on the EU side.
The goal?
Destabilize the border towns.
Convince Russian-speakers they’re in danger.
Erode trust in the Estonian government.
Keep the region psychologically occupied.
And it works, to a point.
But every lie collapses the moment you walk to the river and simply look across.
People on both sides want to wave.
Russia wants to punish them for it.
What Russia Wants to Hide Most of All
Russia’s outrage at Western peace proposals has nothing to do with geopolitics.
It’s about what they know will be documented if there is real oversight:
War crimes have paperwork.
Occupations have receipts.
And once the world starts counting, Russia’s entire imperial project collapses.
That’s why they mock, scream, and posture.
Fear makes noise.
The Man on the Border: What Russia Doesn’t Want Documented
There’s a place where Europe narrows into a single crossing,
a medieval castle on one side (Narva, Estonia),
a medieval fortress on the other (Ivangorod, Russia),
and a river between them.
A thousand years of history dividing democracy from dictatorship.
AI-generated threats pushed at ethnic Russians in Estonia,
I was standing on the Estonian side,
because I can’t set foot in Russia for reasons that don’t need explaining.
When something happened that crystallized everything Moscow is trying to hide.
A man on the Russian side saw me.
He waved.
A simple, human gesture across a border that shouldn’t need to exist.
I waved back.
Then I lifted my phone to take a picture,
and the Russian border guards sprinted at him.
I don’t know his name.
I don’t know if he was staged, coerced, or just being human in the wrong place.
All I know is: the moment he was visible, Russia tried to erase him.
I may have taken the last photo of him as a free man.
And that moment, that instinct from the Russian state, tells you everything about the war, the occupation, and why Russia is terrified of documentation.
[image error]Chris Kubecka, and the man taken away May 2025… zoom in behind meAll of it is the same story.
The river is narrow.
The consequences are not.
Because if a wave from an ordinary man can trigger panic on the Russian side,
just imagine what a free Ukraine,
sovereign, defended, whole,
does to them.
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📌 More on Me • Chris Kubecka — Wikipedia
#Russia #Estonia #Baltics #NationStateThreats #Ukraine #Narva #Cyberwar #TheHacktress #Hybrid-War
Chris Kubecka is the founder and CEO of Hypasec NL an esteemed cyberwarfare expert, advisor to numerous governments, UN groups and freelance journalist. She is the former Aramco Head of Information Protection Group and Joint Intelligence Group, former. Distinguished Chair of the Middle East Institute, veteran USAF aviator and U.S. Space Command. She specializes in critical infrastructure security and unconventional digital threats and risks. When not getting recruited by dodgy nation-states or embroiled in cyber espionage, she hacks dictatorships & Drones (affiliate link to my books) and drinks espresso.
@SecEvangelism on Instagram, X, BlueSky LinkedIn Substack
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