Wade
asked
F.X. Holden:
Considering the current battlefield performance of the Russians in Ukraine, how will that affect your future writing about their competence?. In real life, they're not very good at all, Their technology is suspect, and their leadership has proven to be incompetent and corrupt. Their soldiers are grossly undertrained, their lower level officer corps is unable to lead effectively.
F.X. Holden
Hi Wade I wanted to wait until after the Ukraine summer offensive to answer this one since previous wars have always shown Russia starts poorly (incompetent, disorganized, underequipped) and slowly ramps up to become a formidable foe. I suspected that would happen in Ukraine too, and it has. Ukraine's summer offensive failed, the Russian economy has stabilized, its production of weapons, munitions and mobilization of troops is ramping up. Summer 2024 is not going to be a good summer for Ukraine due also to lack of artillery and missiles flowing to Ukraine from west, and Ukraine's own tardiness in and reluctance to mobilize under 30 yo males, whereas Russia continues to maintain numerical superiority in recruitment of course.
As to how it affects my writing about Russian competence, I have always and prob will continue to over-estimate the effectiveness of new Russian weapons. Their Khinzal 'hypersonic' missiles have proven vulnerable to Patriot and NASAMS. Their Su57 stealth fighter is truly invisible - it has not been sighted in this conflict because only a few exist. Their T-14 Armata tank likewise. Instead, they are drawing down cold war stocks of aircraft and tanks. So I will write a lot less about Russian 'superweapons'.
Where they have proven quick to adapt is in drone and counter-drone warfare on land, though much less so at sea and I think countries involved in near peer wars may find themselves falling behind if they are not careful.
Russia's vaunted Black Sea navy is hiding in port and its bigger (but old) warships have proven particularly vulnerable to drone and missile attack. So I won't be writing about Russia winning any big naval battles in future. All of their defense budget is going into the land war and air in Ukraine, leaving precious little for ship building or upgrades.
In conclusion though, don't write Russia out of the script. It is still numerically strong, economically stable, and its current leader is determinedly bloody minded in his ambition with a 'win no matter the cost' mentality. Russia will be a force for instability for years to come so it will still feature heavily in FX Holden novels!
As to how it affects my writing about Russian competence, I have always and prob will continue to over-estimate the effectiveness of new Russian weapons. Their Khinzal 'hypersonic' missiles have proven vulnerable to Patriot and NASAMS. Their Su57 stealth fighter is truly invisible - it has not been sighted in this conflict because only a few exist. Their T-14 Armata tank likewise. Instead, they are drawing down cold war stocks of aircraft and tanks. So I will write a lot less about Russian 'superweapons'.
Where they have proven quick to adapt is in drone and counter-drone warfare on land, though much less so at sea and I think countries involved in near peer wars may find themselves falling behind if they are not careful.
Russia's vaunted Black Sea navy is hiding in port and its bigger (but old) warships have proven particularly vulnerable to drone and missile attack. So I won't be writing about Russia winning any big naval battles in future. All of their defense budget is going into the land war and air in Ukraine, leaving precious little for ship building or upgrades.
In conclusion though, don't write Russia out of the script. It is still numerically strong, economically stable, and its current leader is determinedly bloody minded in his ambition with a 'win no matter the cost' mentality. Russia will be a force for instability for years to come so it will still feature heavily in FX Holden novels!
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