“Leaders’ confidence is most useful when based on reality. Demagogues, fools, and charlatans may pretend they know exactly what the future holds. But the future is best thought of as a distribution of possible outcomes, some more likely than others. Mapping that uncertainty allows you to place smart bets that maximize expected value or minimize the expected loss of life. As a leader, this is how to sharpen your thinking and messaging. You should be the type of leader with the courage to admit uncertainty and use it to make wise decisions. Even so, leaders face difficult decisions about how ambitious they can be.”