Renato > Renato's Quotes

“Under Bayes' theorem, no theory is perfect. Rather, it is a work in progress, always subject to further refinement and testing.”
― Nate Silver

“Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't

“The story the data tells us is often the one we’d like to hear, and we usually make sure that it has a happy ending.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

“The more interviews that an expert had done with the press, Tetlock found, the worse his predictions tended to be.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't

“Data Is Useless Without Context”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

“If political scientists couldn’t predict the downfall of the Soviet Union—perhaps the most important event in the latter half of the twentieth century—then what exactly were they good for?”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't

“Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge: the serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't