Hindsight Bias Quotes

“So long as we trace the development from its final outcome backwards, the chain of events appears continuous, and we feel we have gained an insight which is completely satisfactory or even exhaustive. But if we proceed in the reverse way, if we start from the premises inferred from the analysis and try to follow these up to the final results, then we no longer get the impression of an inevitable sequence of events which could not have otherwise been determined.”
― Sigmund Freud, Beyond the Pleasure Principle

“Illusion of transparency: We always know what we mean by our words, and so we expect others to know it too. Reading our own writing, the intended interpretation falls easily into place, guided by our knowledge of what we really meant. It’s hard to empathize with someone who must interpret blindly, guided only by the words.

Be not too quick to blame those who misunderstand your perfectly clear sentences, spoken or written. Chances are, your words are more ambiguous than you think.”
― Eliezer Yudkowsky, Rationality: From AI to Zombies

“Everyone who said it was coming didn't have the privilege of being born blindfolded, but their words were always quieter than sight, anyways. Is there a greater horror than always being proven right? If tomorrow always shows up yesterday for those that cannot see, are prophets then vehicles of the future? Or do they just see now as it is? The Doppler Effect of Ignorance destroys sequentiality. But we always show up today, whether we were a day late or not, to revel in the horrors that await us. Only the rationalists can watch the world burn with a smile on their face, a smile that no one else can see.”
― lil low-cu$$'t, S!UT Botulism

“Short-cuts are timesavers for a reason: they omit details that can differentiate a profitable decision from one that you regret.”
― Coreen T. Sol, Unbiased Investor: Reduce Financial Stress and Keep More of Your Money

“People are susceptible to hindsight bias because it’s comforting to think that the world is predictable and thus somewhat orderly. As a result, we desire a positive view of ourselves and therefore try to make sense of it by creating a narrative that shows we knew the outcome.”
― Carson Anekeya