Justin

“Improving decision quality is about increasing our chances of good outcomes, not guaranteeing them.”
― Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

“A helpful exercise is to describe the situation from the beginning, either out loud or in writing, as if to a stranger who isn’t aware of any of the specifics—much like Holmes talks his theories through out loud to Watson. When Holmes states his observations in this way, gaps and inconsistencies that weren’t apparent before come to the surface.”
― Maria Konnikova, Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes

“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure.”
― Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

“Our understanding of our world is systematically biased to perceive meaning rather than randomness and to infer cause rather than coincidence.”
― Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons, The Invisible Gorilla: And Other Ways Our Intuitions Deceive Us