“Think of the difficulty in forecasting in terms of branches growing out of a tree; at every fork we have a multiplication of new branches. To see how our intuitions about these nonlinear multiplicative effects are rather weak,”
― The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
― The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
elliott’s 2025 Year in Books
Take a look at elliott’s Year in Books, including some fun facts about their reading.
Polls voted on by elliott
Lists liked by elliott







