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“Have you ever been betrayed? Have you ever been cut to the bone, stabbed in the back? Have you ever given someone your whole heart only to find out they used your heart to beat you with it? Have you ever laid down your life for someone? Have you ever served with reckless abandonment and in return got back a list of things that you failed to do?”
― Kris Vallotton, The Supernatural Power of Forgiveness: Discover How to Escape Your Prison of Pain and Unlock a Life of Freedom

“failures like these have been fairly common in political prediction. A long-term study by Philip E. Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania found that when political scientists claimed that a political outcome had absolutely no chance of occurring, it nevertheless happened about 15 percent of the time. (The political scientists are probably better than television pundits, however.)”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

“We face danger whenever information growth outpaces our understanding of how to process it. The last forty years of human history imply that it can still take a long time to translate information into useful knowledge, and that if we are not careful, we may take a step back in the meantime.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

“There also were the widespread failures of prediction that accompanied the recent global financial crisis. Our naïve trust in models, and our failure to realize how fragile they were to our choice of assumptions, yielded disastrous results. On a more routine basis, meanwhile, I discovered that we are unable to predict recessions more than a few months in advance, and not for lack of trying. While there has been considerable progress made in controlling inflation, our economic policy makers are otherwise flying blind.”
― Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't