Status Updates From 黑天鹅：如何应对不可预知的未来
黑天鹅：如何应对不可预知的未来 by
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Marta SSX
is 11% done
Está a ser uma leitura interessante, na medida em que o autor está a conseguir que pense de uma forma mais pragmática sobre o que consideramos previsível e como a imprevisibilidade pode ser um mecanismo de absoluta mudança no pensamento e comportamento humano.
— Sep 30, 2026 04:57PM
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Lady G Hutch
is 42% done
Epistemic and Ludic fallacy
Ludic—
We think there is less luck in real life while there’s more luck in gambling(dice, cards, casino games) even when it’s quite the opposite.
Epistemic— overestimating what we think we know, underestimating what we don’t.
Set a range to guess how much the Sydney Opera House cost. How confident are you? Chances are you are way more confident than you should be, and your wrong
— Sep 30, 2026 02:27PM
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Ludic—
We think there is less luck in real life while there’s more luck in gambling(dice, cards, casino games) even when it’s quite the opposite.
Epistemic— overestimating what we think we know, underestimating what we don’t.
Set a range to guess how much the Sydney Opera House cost. How confident are you? Chances are you are way more confident than you should be, and your wrong
