Status Updates From The Science of Conjecture: ...

Done with aleatory contracts. Next up: Dice.

Aleatory contracts such as lotteries and life annuities arose from states’ need to raise money quickly. Usury received finely honed scrutiny that increasingly relied on quantitative probabilities and expectations. Insurance wasn’t considered usury because no loan is involved.

Due to the Black Death, “the urban monasteries, the centers of intellectual training, were hit by deaths much more than the general population, and elementary education suffered severely. ‘Few could be found in the good towns and castles who knew how or were willing to instruct children in the rudiments of grammar.’ Oxford…’was estimated to have lost 80% of its students.’” (p. 216)

Finished the chapter on probability in the “soft sciences”, now onto philosophy.

gamifying