Status Updates From Myths of Empire: Domestic P...

If the forces of cartelization face a well-institutionalized electoral democracy with open public debate and multiple sources of strategic information, then democracy will act as a check on the cartels’ inclination toward overexpansion.

When strong cartels are combined with strong unitary forces, overexpansion may occur, but it should be tempered by the restraining effect of the unitary elements, which can broker and control the ill effects of cartel logrolling. When strong cartels combine with strong democratic pressures but there is no significant unitary element, the result is less clear.

The empirical problem with Realist explanations for overexpansion is that they accept decision makers’ own estimates of their incentives for making their strategic choices.