Status Updates From Superforecasting: The Art a...

Finish chapter 11. Learn a lot about a good leader and how they deal with uncertainty

To continue, there is a quote that inspire me. It said: instead of absolute certainty, accept the uncertainty and assure the presence, as well as responsibility when things go wrong. That is a leader

Chapter 10: Leader’s dilemma
A good leader needs confidence, decisiveness and a vision.
How a good leader can also be a good forecaster?

Chapter 9: Superteams
This chapter is one that negates the statement that purely putting superforecasters together makes a superteams. That is not true. A good team, as in many other circumstance, means more than a group of good people.

It also concludes from the study that superteams do better than the perfect markets… this is not very persuasive

Chapter 8: perpetual beta
Here, again the argument is - you need to try, experience, fail and try again.

Chapter 7: overall, this chapter argues that a good forecast is to be updated overtime small by small. Here the Bayesian principle is mentioned.

After chapter 6: i have no clue what i am reading and this chapter is about

Chapter 6 starts by stating that superforecasters share the trait of being good with number, but they do not need any math to come up with good forecast

Chapter 5:
The chapter starts by stating that it does not just require intelligence and knowledge to be a superforecaster, though it is true that superforecasters possess those qualities.
I found it inspiring to read about Fermi’s class, where a question is then converted to a metaquestion: what must be true so that this … is true?