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The second rule of China’s mercantilist strategy is that its foreign policy is like water: it flows along the path of least resistance—in this case, away from its established and still stronger American rival. This is the reason China has made such a big push for raw materials into Africa and other emerging market countries: precisely because the Americans have fewer interests there.

First, China talks to absolutely everyone in the region—with the exception of ISIS—playing no favorites whatsoever with the five great regional powers: Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Israel. It is one of the only countries in the world to truly get on with all of them. Above all else, and ruefully noting the catastrophic American example, Beijing wants to avoid becoming militarily entangled in the /MENA

As he put it in the 1990s, “Keep a cool head and maintain a low profile. Never take the lead—but aim to do something big.”

For Deng, this meant that just as China was economically taking off—albeit from a very low base—Beijing’s foreign policy had to be characterized by caution, almost quietism; nothing could be allowed to get in the way of economic growth, which Deng knew would bring China at last back to the top table of great powers within a generation.

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