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Chapter 12: are they really super?
Here i did not quite understand the intention of the author. However, he did compare his view with those of kahneman(?) and taleb, and argue that superforecasters do possess certain skills. Different from a pessimistic view from kahneman, in which humans have a lot of biases, and those of taleb (unpredictable world), he provides a middle ground

Finish chapter 11. Learn a lot about a good leader and how they deal with uncertainty

To continue, there is a quote that inspire me. It said: instead of absolute certainty, accept the uncertainty and assure the presence, as well as responsibility when things go wrong. That is a leader

Chapter 10: Leader’s dilemma
A good leader needs confidence, decisiveness and a vision.
How a good leader can also be a good forecaster?

Chapter 9: Superteams
This chapter is one that negates the statement that purely putting superforecasters together makes a superteams. That is not true. A good team, as in many other circumstance, means more than a group of good people.

It also concludes from the study that superteams do better than the perfect markets… this is not very persuasive

Chapter 8: perpetual beta
Here, again the argument is - you need to try, experience, fail and try again.

Chapter 7: overall, this chapter argues that a good forecast is to be updated overtime small by small. Here the Bayesian principle is mentioned.

After chapter 6: i have no clue what i am reading and this chapter is about

Chapter 6 starts by stating that superforecasters share the trait of being good with number, but they do not need any math to come up with good forecast