Giao Phan’s Reviews > Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction > Status Update

Finished first chapter. Main idea:
- an average forecaster can predict with the same precision as a chimp throws a dart.
- precision of predictions from even very well-known forecasters is often not verified.
- forecast about forecast: is the combination between human subjective judgments and computer prediction really the future direction? I guess this depends a lot on which problem we are predicting.