Giao Phan’s Reviews > Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction > Status Update
Giao Phan
is on page 242 of 352
To continue, there is a quote that inspire me. It said: instead of absolute certainty, accept the uncertainty and assure the presence, as well as responsibility when things go wrong. That is a leader
— May 24, 2026 11:51PM
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Giao’s Previous Updates
Giao Phan
is on page 271 of 352
Chapter 12: are they really super?
Here i did not quite understand the intention of the author. However, he did compare his view with those of kahneman(?) and taleb, and argue that superforecasters do possess certain skills. Different from a pessimistic view from kahneman, in which humans have a lot of biases, and those of taleb (unpredictable world), he provides a middle ground
— 5 hours, 20 min ago
Here i did not quite understand the intention of the author. However, he did compare his view with those of kahneman(?) and taleb, and argue that superforecasters do possess certain skills. Different from a pessimistic view from kahneman, in which humans have a lot of biases, and those of taleb (unpredictable world), he provides a middle ground
Giao Phan
is on page 250 of 352
Finish chapter 11. Learn a lot about a good leader and how they deal with uncertainty
— 20 hours, 49 min ago
Giao Phan
is on page 204 of 352
Chapter 10: Leader’s dilemma
A good leader needs confidence, decisiveness and a vision.
How a good leader can also be a good forecaster?
— May 24, 2026 10:23AM
A good leader needs confidence, decisiveness and a vision.
How a good leader can also be a good forecaster?
Giao Phan
is on page 204 of 352
Chapter 9: Superteams
This chapter is one that negates the statement that purely putting superforecasters together makes a superteams. That is not true. A good team, as in many other circumstance, means more than a group of good people.
It also concludes from the study that superteams do better than the perfect markets… this is not very persuasive
— May 24, 2026 10:21AM
This chapter is one that negates the statement that purely putting superforecasters together makes a superteams. That is not true. A good team, as in many other circumstance, means more than a group of good people.
It also concludes from the study that superteams do better than the perfect markets… this is not very persuasive
Giao Phan
is on page 204 of 352
Chapter 8: perpetual beta
Here, again the argument is - you need to try, experience, fail and try again.
— May 18, 2026 10:08PM
Here, again the argument is - you need to try, experience, fail and try again.
Giao Phan
is 50% done
Chapter 7: overall, this chapter argues that a good forecast is to be updated overtime small by small. Here the Bayesian principle is mentioned.
— May 14, 2026 05:30AM
Giao Phan
is 50% done
After chapter 6: i have no clue what i am reading and this chapter is about
— May 11, 2026 10:40AM
Giao Phan
is on page 108 of 352
Chapter 6 starts by stating that superforecasters share the trait of being good with number, but they do not need any math to come up with good forecast
— May 10, 2026 11:18AM
Giao Phan
is on page 108 of 352
Chapter 5:
The chapter starts by stating that it does not just require intelligence and knowledge to be a superforecaster, though it is true that superforecasters possess those qualities.
I found it inspiring to read about Fermi’s class, where a question is then converted to a metaquestion: what must be true so that this … is true?
— May 09, 2026 10:56PM
The chapter starts by stating that it does not just require intelligence and knowledge to be a superforecaster, though it is true that superforecasters possess those qualities.
I found it inspiring to read about Fermi’s class, where a question is then converted to a metaquestion: what must be true so that this … is true?
Giao Phan
is on page 30 of 352
Chapter 4: superforecasters.
This chapter’s purpose is solely to persuade me that the superforecasters are doing constantly good job over the time and not purely based on luck (because if it is, for a large sample set and several periods, the result will regress to the mean).
Then I think this chapter is too lengthy.
— May 09, 2026 10:31PM
This chapter’s purpose is solely to persuade me that the superforecasters are doing constantly good job over the time and not purely based on luck (because if it is, for a large sample set and several periods, the result will regress to the mean).
Then I think this chapter is too lengthy.
