Ji Won Park’s Reviews > The Physics of Wall Street: A Brief History of Predicting the Unpredictable > Status Update
Ji Won Park
is on page 196 of 286
Sornette improved our understanding of ruptures. Bubbles and anti-bubbles are financial realizations of ruptures. Unlike black swans, dragon kings (Sornette's term for extreme events) are predictable. The Prediction Company harnessed the short-term predictability (efficiency) of the market. Sornette attributed regularities to dragon kings.
— May 24, 2018 06:35PM
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Ji Won’s Previous Updates
Ji Won Park
is on page 196 of 286
Malaney and Weinstein developed the gauge theory of economics to solve the index value problem as it related to inflation. Thinking like a physicist is an iterative process of understanding when, why, and how a model fails (the model's assumptions) and coming up with a more robust model. Inspired to write a book in grad school!
— May 25, 2018 06:07PM
Ji Won Park
is on page 158 of 286
Black (of Black-Scholes-Merton model) was a physics outlaw. Farmer, Packard, and McGill brought nonlinear forecasting to high-tech derivatives trading (although the details of their work as part of Prediction Company remains an industry secret). Notably, they introduced black box models (algorithmic trading). Is AT still the dominant paradigm at D. E. Shaw, Two Sigma, Citadel? QOTD: Randomness hides structure.
— May 24, 2018 04:36PM
Ji Won Park
is on page 104 of 286
Osborne wrote whole dissertations instead of proposals until one was accepted for awarding his degree. Mandelbrot wrote his dissertation without an advisor. Thorp struck it rich with Princeton-Newport.
— May 22, 2018 08:57PM

