Anndy Lian's Blog
November 22, 2025
Co-Creating the Rules: How Crypto Firms Are Shaping A Sustainable Future With Government
Anndy Lian
Co-Creating the Rules: How Crypto Firms Are Shaping A Sustainable Future With Government
The crypto world moves fast, with blockchain innovations popping up constantly while governments take their time to respond. As a member of Bitcoin class 2012/13, and having followed its wild rides and the crashes of major exchanges for more than a decade, I’ve noticed a real shift. Crypto firms are starting to view regulators not as enemies to dodge, but as allies in creating a stable and innovative ecosystem. This change feels like a key moment in the industry, especially now when global markets crave clear rules amid all the volatility, scandals, and crypto’s growing ties to traditional finance. In my opinion, proactively jumping in is essential for building legitimacy, driving growth, and avoiding the regulatory hurdles that have slowed progress in the past.
The industry’s approach to government relations has evolved significantly, focusing on shared wins rather than clashes. Crypto companies are acting as links, developing initiatives that match up with public goals like steady economies and protecting users. This involves sharing expertise on blockchain applications, participating in key discussions, and supporting government-connected initiatives, such as those from NGOs, schools, and think tanks. From where I sit, this teamwork gets at a basic fact. Governments are not out to kill crypto; they just protect against dangers like scams, money laundering, and wild market swings. By offering insights and tools, firms can clear up the tech’s mysteries, aiding officials in making smart rules rather than quick shutdowns. With crypto weaving deeper into everyday finance these days, this kind of alliance is crucial. Companies that connect early are not only cutting risks, but they are also helping set the standards.
A smart ladder of connections is taking shape in the sector, aiming at groups from top federal offices down to local city leaders, covering lawmakers, executive branches, and oversight bodies. This layered plan fits the patchy world of rules, where country-wide policies can bump against state or town-level actions. Outside official channels, efforts reach into schools, research groups, community organizations, global bodies, news outlets, advocacy teams, and legal pros. In the wary atmosphere after blowups like FTX, casting this wide web is key to earning trust. For example, think tanks and universities can churn out studies that sway laws, while media and nonprofits spread good stories. Crypto outfits are also nurturing projects tied to public groups and stepping in as fixers during troubles, which strikes me as a clever move toward real-world good. This full-spectrum outreach fights the idea of crypto as just a gamble, framing it as a way to boost access to money and spark new ideas.
Looking ahead, the sector’s step-by-step plans show why this method maps out wins. Companies are showcasing their setups, like research units, decentralized groups, and funding arms, to officials who often do not grasp the field deeply. Regulators I have talked to own up to those blind spots. By giving details on how things work and market info, firms teach without pushing sales, setting up for fair watchdogs. Jumping into open feedback sessions lets the industry shape new rules, like in worldwide drives for uniform systems. Getting hands-on in trade groups acts as a voice box, pulling in base-level views and spreading learning tools. Teaming with think tanks and schools to craft policy write-ups plants crypto views in debates, even if companies stay in the background.
Tactics for handling cross-office rules leverage crypto’s global reach, accelerating information exchanges beyond traditional paths. Showing up at big meetings not to hawk but to highlight pledges to good deeds, such as blockchain for public help, fits a pattern I have spotted. Authorities warm to players who put society first. Broadening outreach past buzz to local, rule-maker-friendly tales of business and charity work is way past due. The field’s current spin often comes off as inward-looking, skipping chances to spotlight true effects. Linking with advocates gives a push and previews, reading official steps quickly. Putting money and startup help into public aims tightens bonds, since joint interests breed commitment. Mingling with other players, from big outfits to legal crews, builds tough webs for growth or slumps. Launching these bit by bit, as constant work, mirrors the truth that ties are long hauls, not quick dashes.
The industry’s backup strategies highlight ongoing soft spots in this changing setup. When bad news hits, like lists of no-gos or tight reins, firms rally lawyers for straight talks with overseers, scoop local scoops, sync quick messages, and tweak things like ads. If lots of players get dinged, a joint push without spilling too many secrets can stand up to oversteps together. In calm spells, inside checks on stuff like partners and area rule-following keep things primed. From my spot, this readiness points out the fuzzy areas crypto still threads, but it also hints at hope. Through steady chats, firms can head off blowups and grow talks.
In pushing this forward-thinking way, I lean on proof that teamwork brings real upsides. For starters, sharper rule paths boost openness and steady checks, pulling in big-money backers and calming markets. These links foster setups that fire up new ideas while beefing up safety, faith, and money reach around the world. Officials zeroing in on user shields, safety, and honesty find overlap with sector aims, cutting down splits. Take cases like Coinbase, which teams with governments as a go-to crypto middleman, easing dives into the tech. Standard Chartered has joined crypto groups to roll out stablecoins, blending digital bits into banks. Even U.S. ideas for a country-wide Bitcoin stash show official hugs when sparked by sector tips. These back my case for linking up. The flip side, pushing back, has sparked shutdowns in spots like China and parts of Europe.
I stand strong for this path, even if it risks too much control, watering down crypto’s spread-out core. But right now, as crypto mixes into finance with cries for oversight, alliances are vital for growing up. As someone watching this arena, I figure copying these moves across the board could flip crypto from a rule pain to a base of world money flows. The trick is doing it right, mixing push with duty in shifting world plays. If handled well, the field will not just hang on, it will boom, helping creators, funders, and folks everywhere.
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November 21, 2025
AI bubble fears trigger market rotation: What it means for crypto and tech stocks
Anndy Lian
AI bubble fears trigger market rotation: What it means for crypto and tech stocks
The recent cooling of risk sentiment across global financial markets has sparked a pronounced defensive rotation, revealing a market grappling with conflicting signals on growth, monetary policy, and the sustainability of the AI-driven rally that has underpinned equity performance for much of the year. This shift lies in a confluence of macroeconomic data, corporate earnings uncertainty, and a reassessment of valuation premiums, particularly among the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks.
The S&P 500’s 1.6 per cent decline, which pushed it below its 100-day moving average, and the Nasdaq 100’s sharper 2.4 per cent drop underscore a growing investor wariness. This pullback occurred despite robust headline earnings from major technology firms, suggesting that earnings quality and forward guidance now matter more than top-line results alone. The market’s reaction reflects a maturing phase of the AI investment cycle, where speculative exuberance gives way to scrutiny over capital discipline and return on investment.
Nvidia’s post-earnings decline of 3.2 per cent, despite reporting record revenue of US$57 billion for the quarter ending October 2025, up 22 per cent from the prior quarter and exceeding its own guidance, highlights this tension. The company’s announcement of US$500 billion in AI chip orders for 2025 and 2026 combined speaks to immense underlying demand, yet investors are increasingly concerned about the pace and efficiency of capital deployment.
Analysts have begun questioning whether the current infrastructure build-out is inherently speculative, with data centre investments potentially outstripping near-term revenue generation. This scepticism has catalysed a broader reevaluation of AI-linked equities, triggering a selloff that spilt over into other risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The market is no longer rewarding growth at any price. Instead, it demands proof of sustainable, profitable scaling.
This tech-driven equity weakness directly influenced the sharp deterioration in crypto market sentiment. Bitcoin fell 3.7 per cent during the session, and the broader crypto market shed 6.22 per cent in 24 hours, mirroring a four per cent intraday drop in the Nasdaq. The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100 has surged to 0.88, its highest level since March 2025, firmly re-establishing crypto’s role as a high-beta risk asset rather than a diversifying hedge.
This tight linkage means that any fear of an AI bubble or a broader tech valuation correction now directly translates into selling pressure on digital assets. The market has effectively priced in a future of unfettered AI growth, and any hint of a slowdown in hyperscaler spending or a more rational approach to capital expenditure is met with immediate repricing.
Compounding this sensitivity to equity market moves is a sudden and severe repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations. The delayed release of the September US jobs report delivered a mixed but ultimately hawkish signal. While nonfarm payrolls showed a stronger-than-expected gain of 119,000 jobs, well above the 75,000 forecast, the unemployment rate simultaneously ticked up to 4.4 per cent, its highest level since late 2021. This combination of resilient job creation with a rising jobless rate, driven by an expanding labour force, has muddied the Fed’s data-dependent outlook.
The market has responded by aggressively pricing out the prospect of near-term monetary easing. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting has collapsed to just 30 per cent, a sharp decline from the 55 per cent chance priced in a month earlier. This higher-for-longer rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and elevates volatility across all risk markets, as evidenced by the VIX index sitting at 26.4.
This macro-induced risk aversion triggered a violent process of leverage unwinding in the crypto markets. As Bitcoin broke below the critical US$87,000 support level, a cascade of liquidations was set off, with over US$636 million in long positions being forcibly closed. This selling pressure was amplified by the fact that open interest in perpetual swap markets had recently risen by nearly five per cent to US$856.5 billion, indicating that traders had been adding leveraged long positions near the market’s peak.
The resulting feedback loop of margin calls and stop-loss triggers pushed the Fear & Greed Index into Extreme Fear territory at a reading of 11, its lowest point since March. This dynamic illustrates a key vulnerability in the current crypto market structure. High leverage in a low-liquidity environment can turn a modest price move into a full-blown panic, stripping away any illusion of its independence from traditional financial drivers.
In this climate of uncertainty, capital has rotated into traditional defensive sectors. Consumer Staples rose 1.1 per cent, led by a 6.5 per cent jump in Walmart’s share price, as investors sought refuge in stable, cash-generative businesses with inelastic demand. This flight to safety extends beyond equities, with gold holding firm above US$4,000 as a classic hedge against both economic slowdown and policy uncertainty. For investors, the implications are clear.
A broad, diversified portfolio that extends well beyond the narrow leadership of the tech sector is now a prudent necessity. Being selective among the Mag7 is paramount, as not all AI plays are created equal, and the market is now differentiating between those with real earnings power and those riding on pure narrative.
Looking ahead, the critical questions hinge on the Federal Reserve’s next move and the long-term capital discipline of the tech giants. The December FOMC meeting is a pivotal event, and a failure to deliver the expected rate cut could unleash another wave of volatility. The more profound, unanswered question for the market’s structural health is whether the hyperscalers, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta, will maintain their current breakneck pace of AI-related capital expenditure into 2026. Their 4Q earnings calls will provide the first real glimpse into their 2026 guidance.
A decision to spend at a more measured, rational pace would be a sign of mature, shareholder-friendly discipline that benefits their own balance sheets. Such prudence would be a double-edged sword, as it would likely inflict significant pain on the vast ecosystem of downstream semiconductor, hardware, and software companies whose growth is entirely dependent on this torrent of spending.
The market’s current weakness is a reflection of its fear that the golden age of unconstrained AI capex may be coming to an end, forcing a painful but necessary reassessment of valuations across the entire technology and crypto landscape.
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November 20, 2025
AI stocks soar while crypto bleeds: What’s really driving the great market divergence?
Anndy Lian
AI stocks soar while crypto bleeds: What’s really driving the great market divergence?
Despite a wave of optimism in mainstream financial markets following Nvidia’s robust earnings report and bullish forward guidance, the cryptocurrency market has charted a markedly different course. While the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones posted modest but clear gains, crypto traders navigated a landscape of institutional retreat, forced deleveraging, and growing scepticism around altcoin fundamentals.
The disconnect between AI-driven equity euphoria and crypto caution underscores a critical juncture. As traditional markets celebrate the next phase of artificial intelligence integration, digital asset markets confront a confluence of macro headwinds and structural vulnerabilities.
Crypto’s recent underperformance lies in a record-breaking institutional outflow. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust recorded a single-day withdrawal of US$523 million, the largest since its January 2024 debut. This outflow did not occur in isolation. US spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively shed US$1.3 billion in assets under management over the past week, a direct response to diminishing hopes for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
Market participants now assign only a 27 per cent probability to such a move, a sharp reversal from the more dovish expectations held just weeks prior. For a market increasingly tethered to traditional financial sentiment, with crypto-equity correlations hovering near 0.65, the withdrawal of institutional capital has stripped away a critical support layer. When institutions step back, retail traders rarely fill the void with sufficient conviction, especially in volatile environments.
Compounding this institutional caution is a cascade of leveraged liquidations. Over US$127 million in Bitcoin long positions were forcibly closed in a short window, intensifying downward price pressure as Bitcoin dipped below the psychologically significant US$90,000 mark. This deleveraging occurred against a backdrop of rising open interest in crypto derivatives, which climbed 10.4 per cent to US$889 billion, suggesting that many new positions were opened on borrowed capital.
When volatility spikes or sentiment shifts, such positions become vulnerable. The result is a feedback loop. Price drops trigger margin calls, which force more selling, which pushes prices lower still. The market’s emotional state reflects this stress. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 15, entering the Extreme Fear zone, the lowest reading since March 2025. Technical indicators like the RSI14 at 37.95 signal oversold conditions, but they provide no clear reversal signal, leaving traders in a state of anxious limbo.
Altcoins have fared even worse, revealing the fragility of speculative narratives when liquidity dries up. Solana, once heralded as a high-throughput alternative to Ethereum, plunged 11.47 per cent over the week after Forward Industries, its largest corporate holder, transferred US$201 million worth of SOL to Coinbase Prime. Such large movements of tokens to exchange wallets are often interpreted as preludes to selling, igniting panic among retail holders. BNB and XRP mirrored these losses, declining 4.81 per cent and 12.14 per cent, respectively.
The Altcoin Season Index now stands at 27, well below the 75 threshold that typically signals a broad-based rally in alternative cryptocurrencies. This metric confirms what price action already suggests. It is firmly Bitcoin’s market, and even Bitcoin is struggling to hold ground.
Meanwhile, the macroeconomic backdrop offers little comfort. US Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year at 4.14 per cent and the 2-year at 3.59 per cent. Fed officials have openly pushed back against rate-cut expectations, and the delay in key US jobs data further clouds the policy outlook.
In foreign exchange markets, the US dollar remains firm, while the Japanese yen hovers near 157.2, perilously close to levels that could trigger government intervention. Gold, often a refuge in uncertain times, holds just above US$4,000, reflecting a mixed risk environment where some investors hedge while others chase AI-linked equities.
The divergence between traditional tech and crypto markets raises a fundamental question. Is AI optimism truly a rising tide that lifts all boats, or does it primarily benefit assets with deep institutional integration and clear cash flow narratives? Nvidia’s forecast, projecting US$203 billion in annual revenue, speaks to tangible, near-term AI infrastructure demand.
Its chips power the data centres that train large language models and run inference workloads. Bitcoin and Solana, by contrast, offer no earnings, no dividends, and uncertain regulatory pathways. In a regime of higher-for-longer rates, such assets become less attractive relative to yield-bearing instruments or equities with demonstrable growth.
For investors, the path forward demands discipline. In equities, tech exposure remains compelling but warrants selectivity. In crypto, the current environment favours caution. Traders should monitor Bitcoin ETF flows closely. A reversal from outflows to inflows could signal renewed institutional appetite, especially if softer jobs data revives rate-cut hopes.
Similarly, sustained negative funding rates in perpetual futures markets might indicate capitulation and a potential short-term bottom. Until then, the market’s Extreme Fear reading is not just a metric. It is a warning. The AI boom may be real, but its benefits are not yet flowing into digital asset markets. Instead, crypto finds itself caught in a perfect storm of macro uncertainty, institutional hesitation, and speculative excess unwinding. The rally elsewhere is a reminder of what crypto could be, but not what it is today.
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November 19, 2025
India’s debt-backed stablecoin challenge to US dollar dominance explained
Anndy Lian
India’s debt-backed stablecoin challenge to US dollar dominance explained
As governments worldwide debate the merits and dangers of digital currencies, India appears poised to launch its own state-backed stablecoin that uses government debt as collateral.Proponents argue that the Asset Reserve Certificate (ARC) could hasten the global drive towards de-dollarisation, lower India’s borrowing costs and create a “virtuous cycle” for public funding by diversifying the country’s investor base.
By tying the token to sovereign debt, developers aim to create a transparent system that complements the central bank’s monetary framework and limits outflows of local liquidity into dollar-backed cryptocurrencies.The ARC, under development by international blockchain giant Polygon and India-based fintech Anq, would function as a stablecoin: a cryptocurrency engineered to maintain a steady value, avoiding the volatility that plagues speculative digital assets like bitcoin.Every unit of the regulated digital token would be backed one-to-one by Indian government securities or treasury bills – debt instruments issued by the state to finance public spending – maintaining a steady value pegged to the rupee while operating on private blockchain infrastructure.
Its backers say that by tying the digital token directly to sovereign debt, India could keep local liquidity at home instead of letting it leak offshore.
“Success could establish India as the template for upholding private blockchain innovation while maintaining financial sovereignty,” Benjamin Grolimund, general manager of cryptocurrency exchange Flipster, told This Week in Asia.
ARC could enable “significant crypto market capture” for the world’s most populous nation, he said. “India’s move asserts the trend towards de-dollarisation as other [Asia-Pacific] hubs advance their own currency-backed stablecoin frameworks”.
‘Legal limbo’India, home to one of the world’s largest crypto user bases, has seen surging adoption among both its vast diaspora and a young, digitally native population.
Digital currencies are helping to meet the diaspora’s remittance needs, while young Indian adults are increasingly embracing crypto trading, according to a recent Chainalysis report.
Yet cryptocurrencies remain unregulated in the country, neither illegal nor formally sanctioned, following a 2020 Supreme Court decision that overturned a ban by the central bank amid concerns about its potential for money laundering and terrorism financing.
The ARC’s success could depend on whether India can establish regulatory frameworks to address consumer protection, market conduct and financial stability.
Analysts note the need for legislative clarity: would ARCs be recognised as digital government securities or as payment instruments? Would oversight fall solely under the central bank or be shared with the Securities and Exchange Board of India?
Defining the regulator will be crucial, as will clarifying if non-residents can hold the token, whether settlements can occur offshore and what mechanisms exist for clean conversion between rupees and foreign currency.
“Without statutory backing, disputes over redemptions, custody failures or censorship could land in legal limbo,” warned Anndy Lian, a Singapore-based adviser on blockchain policy.
Risks vs rewardsWhile Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan have experimented with similar digital tokens, India’s ARC could be the first public, tradeable stablecoin issued privately but backed by state assets.“India may do something no other major economy has attempted; turn its government securities into a programmable digital asset,” said Raj Kapoor, chairman of the India Blockchain Alliance.
Such a token would align with the Indian central bank’s push to introduce a digital currency and secure the benefits of crypto without dollar-denominated dependence, Kapoor said.
Success is far from certain, however. Overcentralisation risks rebranding government bonds without meaningful innovation, while under-regulation could introduce legal and financial vulnerabilities.
“The risk is that, if over-controlled, it becomes just dematerialised G-Secs [government securities] in a new wrapper with little innovation,” Kapoor said.
But if designed with care, it could be the catalyst that pulls decentralised finance and global liquidity into India’s bond market, strengthening the rupee and setting a new global benchmark.
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November 18, 2025
Crypto’s fragile comeback: Oversold RSI, Solana ETFs, and the US$86K Bitcoin test
Anndy Lian
Crypto’s fragile comeback: Oversold RSI, Solana ETFs, and the US$86K Bitcoin test
Digital assets climbed 1.93 per cent, recovering from a steep seven-day slide that saw the sector shed 8.53 per cent of its value. This bounceback came against a broader backdrop of risk aversion. The S&P 500 fell 0.83 per cent, the NASDAQ dropped 1.21 per cent amid AI valuation concerns, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1.07 per cent. The caution permeating traditional markets has spilt over into crypto, yet structural developments within the digital asset space, particularly around Solana, Binance, and technical positioning, provided enough tailwind for a short-term recovery.
The most potent catalyst emerged from the institutional front: the launch of spot Solana exchange-traded funds. Fidelity and Canary Capital debuted their Solana ETFs, FSOL and SOLC, on the NYSE and Nasdaq, respectively, drawing over US$30 million in first-day inflows. Unlike earlier crypto ETF structures that offered pure price exposure, these funds incorporate staking mechanisms, allowing investors to earn yield while holding the asset.
This innovation speaks directly to institutional appetite for income-generating digital assets in an environment where risk-free rates remain elevated but volatile. The inclusion of staking functionality elevates Solana beyond mere speculative exposure. It positions SOL as a yield-bearing asset within a broader portfolio framework, blurring the line between traditional fixed income and decentralised finance.
Crucially, Solana’s price held firm near US$183 despite Bitcoin’s recent turbulence, suggesting that ETF approval has conferred a degree of regulatory legitimacy not previously enjoyed by most altcoins. While Ethereum still commands the lion’s share of institutional attention among non-Bitcoin assets, Solana’s ETF momentum may signal a widening of the institutional aperture, potentially heralding the early stages of a broader altcoin renaissance if sustained.
Parallel to this structural shift, Binance continued to assert its dominance as the central node of global crypto liquidity. In the third quarter of 2025, Binance recorded net inflows of US$14.8 billion, a staggering 158 times more than its closest competitors. This figure is not merely a testament to user trust but reflects a deliberate strategy. The exchange has secured 21 regulatory licenses worldwide and holds US$31 billion in proof-of-reserves, positioning itself as a compliant gateway for both retail and institutional capital.
Recent partnerships, such as the integration with PayPay Japan, have further cemented its role in bridging mainstream finance with digital asset markets. In an environment where many crypto-native platforms struggle with regulatory headwinds and capital flight, Binance’s ability to attract and retain capital underscores a market preference for scale, security, and regulatory clarity, even within the centralised exchange model. This liquidity concentration has a direct impact on market dynamics.
Binance now accounts for 41 per cent of global crypto trading volume, according to BTCC data for 2025. Such dominance means that price discovery, especially during volatile periods, increasingly hinges on activity within Binance’s order books. The exchange’s inflows have effectively offset bearish sentiment elsewhere, including outflows from other crypto ETFs and risk-off behaviour in equities, acting as a counterweight to broader market pessimism.
From a technical standpoint, the rebound also found fertile ground in oversold conditions. The 14-day Relative Strength Index for the overall crypto market cap dipped to 34, entering territory historically associated with short-term buying opportunities.
Concurrently, the MACD histogram showed a narrowing of bearish momentum, falling to negative US$20.58 billion, a signal that downward pressure was beginning to ease. Traders responded swiftly, pushing the market higher in a classic relief rally. This technical bounce carries caveats. Perpetual futures funding rates across major assets remain subdued at a positive 0.0056 per cent, indicating that leverage appetite has not returned in force.
In other words, while spot traders capitalised on the dip, derivatives markets remain cautious, wary of committing to directional bets ahead of key macro events, including Nvidia’s earnings, which loom large given the chipmaker’s role as a bellwether for AI-driven equity performance. The absence of aggressive long positioning suggests that this rally is more a function of short-covering and mean reversion than a conviction-driven shift in sentiment.
Beneath these immediate drivers lies a more fragile undercurrent. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 16 out of 100, deep in extreme fear territory. This level of pessimism has historically preceded both capitulation events and eventual recoveries, but context matters. Today’s fear coincides with weakening global risk sentiment, driven by multiple crosscurrents. Treasury yields have dipped slightly, with the 10-year at 4.11 per cent and the 2-year at 3.57 per cent, reflecting safe-haven demand, yet the dollar remains flat, and the yen has weakened past 155 against the greenback on expectations of further Japanese stimulus.
Geopolitical tensions between China and Japan continue to rattle Asian markets, as evidenced by the Nikkei’s 3.2 per cent drop just one day prior. Meanwhile, oil prices rose 1.1 per cent on renewed Russia sanctions risk, and gold gained as investors sought traditional hedges. In this environment, crypto’s 1.93 per cent gain appears resilient, but it remains tethered to the fate of broader risk assets, particularly tech stocks.
The critical question now is sustainability. Can altcoins, led by Solana, maintain upward momentum if Bitcoin retests its US$86,000 support level? The answer likely hinges on two variables: continued Solana ETF inflows and shifts in Bitcoin dominance. The ETH/BTC ratio, a traditional barometer of altcoin season potential, has yet to show convincing recovery, suggesting that capital rotation into alternatives remains tentative.
Moreover, while Solana’s ETF structure offers yield through staking, its long-term appeal will depend on consistent institutional adoption and regulatory stability, not just initial enthusiasm. Binance’s liquidity dominance provides a buffer, but it also concentrates systemic risk. Any regulatory misstep or loss of confidence in the exchange could trigger rapid outflows that overwhelm even robust technical setups.
In conclusion, the crypto market’s recent rebound is real but fragile. It draws strength from three distinct pillars: institutional validation via Solana ETFs, centralised liquidity via Binance’s inflows, and technical oversold conditions inviting short-term buyers. These bullish forces operate within a macro framework tilted toward caution, marked by AI valuation fatigue, geopolitical friction, and a risk-off posture in both equities and fixed income. The rally should not be mistaken for a trend reversal but rather a tactical pause in a broader correction.
For the rebound to evolve into a sustained recovery, it will need either a catalyst that reignites global risk appetite or evidence that crypto’s fundamentals, particularly around regulated yield and institutional adoption, are decoupling from traditional market sentiment. Until then, traders and investors alike must tread carefully, watching Solana ETF flows, BTC dominance, and the ever-sensitive US$86,000 Bitcoin support level as leading indicators of what comes next.
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Quantum shockwave hits finance as Aussie companies join the race
Anndy Lian
Quantum shockwave hits finance as Aussie companies join the race
If there’s one threat forming on the horizon of global finance, it’s not necessarily another banking crisis, it’s quantum computing.
Quantum computers aren’t just faster. They’re built on entirely different physics (superposition and entanglement), allowing them to process calculations that would take today’s supercomputers thousands of years … in mere minutes.
That power is a dream for scientists but for banks and payment networks, it’s a ticking time bomb.
That’s because the same quantum power that can simulate entire molecules in seconds can just as easily rip through the encryption walls protecting global finance.
All those locks guarding online payments, digital wallets (and now blockchain transactions) rely on public-key cryptography. Once quantum processors mature, and most experts say they will within a decade, those locks could snap open like cheap padlocks.
“Our financial systems face an existential threat from quantum computing’s ability to break widely used public-key cryptographic protocols,” said Singapore-based blockchain adviser Anndy Lian, warning that trillions in digital transactions are exposed.
Banks know it. Regulators are catching on.
And while some countries are already investing heavily in “quantum-safe” systems, much of the world still isn’t ready.
That gap has created an urgent opportunity for companies that can bridge today’s digital infrastructure with tomorrow’s quantum reality.
Aussie companies gearing up for quantum shift
Australia already has a few names making early moves.
Archer Materials (ASX:AXE) is one of the few public companies in the world developing a quantum chip that can operate at room temperature, which could be a game-changer for the industry.
Its flagship project, the 12CQ chip, aims to use carbon-based qubits, a very different approach from the ultra-cold superconducting systems favoured by giants like IBM and Google.
What makes Archer interesting is that it has already demonstrated the ability to detect and now fabricate individual qubits using standard semiconductor processes. If successful, it could mean quantum computing that fits on a normal circuit board.
Meanwhile, Sydney-based Diraq, though unlisted, has partnered with UNSW to advance silicon-based qubits, essentially trying to make quantum chips that speak the same language as today’s computers.
Another early mover is Codeifai (ASX:CDE), which has recently broadened its focus from product authentication into the much broader world of quantum-secure data.
Codeifai expands into quantum
Codeifai’s story started in product authentication, stopping counterfeit goods with scannable QR codes. But the company’s ambition has evolved fast.
In 2024, it launched ConnectQR, turning those codes into digital trust portals that verify products and track supply chains.
In 2025, Codeifai took a major leap forward by integrating GS1 Digital Link functionality into its ConnectQR platform, a technology that transforms ordinary barcodes into web-enabled smart data carriers.
It connects physical products directly to online information with a single scan, giving consumers instant access to verified product details and authenticity.
This move also saw Codeifai accepted as an Associate Alliance Partner of GS1 Australia, placing it at the forefront of the global transition from 1D to 2D barcodes and expanding opportunities for its high-margin SaaS ConnectQR business.
Now, the company is preparing for its biggest move yet… into quantum-secure payments and communications.
Earlier this month, Codeifai appointed seasoned payments executive Marcus Cann as chief strategy officer to lead the charge.
Cann’s background at Volt Bank and MOGOPLUS gives him deep roots in fintech and open-banking infrastructure, exactly the kind of experience needed to bridge finance and frontier tech.
“He [Cann] will work closely with our COO and myself as we navigate the company into an exciting new arena,” said Codeifai’s executive chairman, John Houston.
The appointment coincides with Codeifai’s potential acquisition of AntennaTransfer.io, an AI-backed, quantum-secure communications platform owned by Canada’s Credissential Inc.
Once the deal is approved at the company’s EGM on 8 December, it will be rebranded QuantumAI Secure.
Secure payments for the post-quantum era
Every time someone scans a QR code, approves a BNPL transaction, or signs a digital agreement, they’re relying on one unspoken assumption: that the system can’t be forged.
Quantum computing is about to test that assumption.
Codeifai’s QuantumAI Secure is designed to make sure that trust still holds. It features a payments gateway fortified with post-quantum cryptography, built so that even if someone intercepts transaction data today, it will remain unreadable decades from now.
The platform also enables file transfers that keep sensitive contracts and intellectual property sealed tight for years to come.
AntennaTransfer.io brings the communications backbone to transmit encrypted information across distributed networks, and that technology is now about to be folded into Codeifai’s ecosystem.
The expansion into encryption technology puts the company squarely in the path of one of the biggest transformations in tech history.
Source: https://stockhead.com.au/tech/quantum-shockwave-hits-finance-as-aussie-companies-join-the-race/
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Europe’s Digital Euro: A Surveillance Coin in Disguise
Anndy Lian
Europe’s Digital Euro: A Surveillance Coin in Disguise
As the European Central Bank (ECB) pushes forward with plans to launch a retail Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) by 2029, pending legislative approval in 2026 and pilot testing from mid-2027, it’s tempting to view this as a neutral evolution of money in a digital age. But beneath the glossy language of “secure payments” and “complementing cash” lies a stark reality. This is not about innovation. It’s about control. And it stands in sharp contrast to the more pragmatic, market-driven approaches emerging elsewhere, most notably in the United Arab Emirates.
Let’s dispense with euphemisms. In my opinion, the ECB’s so-called “digital euro” is not a tool for financial inclusion or technological progress. With a €1.3 billion budget, no use of blockchain, no privacy safeguards, and no mechanism for redemption into physical cash or other assets, it functions less like money and more like a programmable surveillance instrument. Unlike cash, which is anonymous, final, and free from intermediation, the digital euro will be fully traceable, subject to usage conditions such as spending caps or expiry dates, and entirely under the thumb of central authorities. That’s not monetary policy. That’s digital authoritarianism wrapped in technocratic jargon.
The ECB insists the digital euro will “complement” cash, not replace it. But actions speak louder than reassurances. Why pour billions into a parallel currency if cash isn’t the target? Why design a system where every transaction is logged, monitored, and potentially restricted unless the goal is to shift economic behavior through oversight? In a continent already grappling with rising energy costs, inflation, and bureaucratic overreach, the last thing citizens need is a state-mandated payment layer that watches, judges, and possibly penalizes their spending.
Compare this to the UAE, a jurisdiction often dismissed as a “small player” but one that is rapidly becoming a blueprint for 21st-century financial infrastructure. The UAE isn’t pushing a retail CBDC on its citizens. Instead, it operates a layered, purpose-built stack: a wholesale-only Digital Dirham for cross-border interbank settlements, already live with India, China, and Saudi Arabia; regulated deposit tokens issued by banks for trade finance; and a thriving, regulated stablecoin ecosystem for retail and corporate payments. Circle, Paxos, and Tether are all operating under the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), offering programmable, exportable, and transparent digital dollars. No coercion. No surveillance by design. Just clear roles, clear rules, and market choice.
This is the critical distinction. The UAE understands that money thrives on trust, but trust is earned through transparency, competition, and user sovereignty, not top-down mandates. Stablecoins, despite their critics, have already demonstrated this at scale. A $307 billion market cap and Tether’s projected $10 billion profit in 2025 are not flukes. They reflect real demand for digital money that is fast, open, and not tethered to government discretion. The U.S., for all its regulatory ambiguity, has largely embraced this reality, allowing innovation to flourish while slowly building guardrails.
Europe, by contrast, is doubling down on control. The digital euro debate is mired in technicalities about wallet limits and transaction expiration, not user experience, not interoperability, not financial resilience. It’s as if the ECB learned nothing from the crypto winters or the global shift toward decentralized finance. Instead of fostering a competitive landscape where stablecoins, commercial bank money, and cash coexist, Europe wants a monolithic, state-run alternative that centralizes power under the guise of “security.”
Make no mistake. CBDCs have a legitimate role, but only in the plumbing of finance. Wholesale CBDCs can streamline interbank settlements, reduce settlement risk, and enhance cross-border liquidity. That’s infrastructure. But injecting a retail CBDC directly into public wallets is a different beast entirely. It turns money into a policy lever, one that can be throttled, redirected, or disabled based on political whims or social engineering goals. Once deployed, such a system will be nearly impossible to roll back.
And for what? The ECB claims the digital euro will “build trust.” But trust in money doesn’t come from central control. It comes from reliability, scarcity, and freedom of use. Cash offers that. Gold offers that. Even well-regulated stablecoins offer that. A digital euro, designed without privacy, without redemption rights, and without decentralization, offers none of it.
The irony is palpable. At a time when citizens worldwide are reevaluating their relationship with institutions, the ECB is engineering a currency that embodies institutional overreach. Meanwhile, jurisdictions like the UAE are building open, modular, and exportable financial rails that empower businesses and individuals alike. One path leads to innovation and sovereignty. The other to surveillance and stagnation.
I’ve spent over a decade observing the evolution of digital assets, from Bitcoin’s cypherpunk roots to the institutionalization of DeFi and the rise of regulated stablecoins. What’s clear is this. The future of money belongs to systems that enhance user agency, not restrict it. Europe’s digital euro, as currently conceived, does the opposite. It’s not a response to market demand. It’s a preemptive strike against financial pluralism.
So, if you’re in Europe and value privacy, autonomy, or simply the right to transact without Big Brother’s ledger tracking your lunch purchase, think twice. The ECB may call it “progress.” But history will likely remember it as the moment Europe chose control over freedom, surveillance over trust, and bureaucracy over innovation.
And I, for one, wouldn’t want to be forced to use it.
Short bio:
Anndy Lian is an all-rounded business strategist in Asia. He has provided advisory across a variety of industries for local, international, and public-listed companies and governments. He is an early blockchain adopter and experienced serial entrepreneur, book author, investor, board member, and keynote speaker.
Source: https://852web3.media/2025/11/18/europes-digital-euro-a-surveillance-coin-in-disguise-2/
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Crypto crashes 13 per cent as Fed rate cut hopes fade, S&P 500 correlation hits 0.95
Anndy Lian
Crypto crashes 13 per cent as Fed rate cut hopes fade, S&P 500 correlation hits 0.95
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market shed 3.51 per cent, extending a punishing 13 per cent weekly decline driven by a confluence of macroeconomic headwinds, cascading derivatives liquidations, and a dramatic collapse in trader sentiment. This sell-off exemplifies how tightly interwoven crypto has become with traditional financial systems, particularly as correlations with equities have deepened to levels not seen in months.
Monday’s performance in US equities underscored this linkage, with the Dow Jones falling 1.18 per cent, the S&P 500 down 0.92 per cent, and the Nasdaq slipping 0.84 per cent, as technology stocks led the retreat. These losses emerged alongside diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which had previously provided some support to risk assets. The recalibration of Fed expectations followed strong US economic data, which reinforced concerns about persistent inflation and delayed the anticipated pivot toward monetary easing.
The shifting macroeconomic landscape was further reflected in movements across fixed-income and foreign exchange markets. The 10-year US Treasury yield declined modestly by 1.0 basis point to settle at 4.139 per cent, while the two-year yield edged higher by 0.4 basis points to 3.610 per cent, signalling a slight flattening of the yield curve. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index gained 0.29 per cent to close at 99.588, adding pressure on non-dollar assets.
Gold, often viewed as a safe haven, dropped 1.0 per cent to US$4044.96 per ounce, weighed down by both the stronger dollar and receding hopes for near-term rate cuts, which typically support precious metals by lowering opportunity costs. In energy markets, Brent crude settled slightly lower at US$64.20 per barrel, recovering marginally as loadings resumed at Russia’s Novorossiysk export terminal following a brief suspension caused by a Ukrainian drone strike. Across Asia, equities finished the session mixed but turned lower in early Tuesday trading, though US index futures pointed to a modest recovery at the open, suggesting some short-term stabilisation may be on the horizon.
The crypto downturn lies a powerful macro risk-off dynamic that has pulled digital assets into the same downdraft affecting equities. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price correlation with the S&P 500 surged to 0.95, its highest since June 2025. This near-perfect synchronisation underscores how traders increasingly treat crypto not as an uncorrelated alternative asset but as a high-beta extension of the broader risk spectrum. The catalyst for this shift came from revised market pricing around Federal Reserve policy. Stronger-than-expected economic indicators have tempered expectations for a December rate cut, pushing the implied probability lower and driving the 10-year Treasury yield up by 14 basis points over recent sessions.
This tightening of financial conditions has hit speculative assets especially hard. Bitcoin’s breach below the psychologically critical US$91,500 level triggered a wave of algorithmic stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline and dragging down major altcoins such as Solana and Cardano, which posted weekly losses of 21.7 per cent and 22.4 per cent, respectively. The market now awaits pivotal upcoming events, the release of the November 20 Fed meeting minutes, and Nvidia’s earnings report on November 21, for further directional cues. Any sign of continued economic resilience or hawkish Fed rhetoric could prolong risk aversion.
Compounding the macro pressure, a violent unwind in crypto derivatives markets has magnified losses through forced liquidations. Trading volume in perpetual futures contracts spiked by 45.6 per cent to an astonishing US$423 trillion over 24 hours, reflecting frantic hedging and position adjustments. Simultaneously, total open interest in the derivatives market fell by 7.4 per cent, now standing at US$787 billion, down 8.4 per cent in a single day. This contraction signals a rapid deleveraging as overextended positions were forcibly closed. Options markets mirrored this bearish sentiment, with US$740 million in put options placed targeting a Bitcoin price of US$90,000 and Ethereum at US$2,800.
Funding rates for major altcoins also turned negative, with the average rate dipping to minus 0.0019775, which disincentivises holding long positions and encourages further shorting. This feedback loop of rising volatility, liquidations, and negative funding creates a self-reinforcing cycle that can deepen sell-offs beyond what fundamentals alone would justify. Market participants now watch open interest closely, as a continued decline could signal capitulation, potentially setting the stage for a relief rally once leverage is sufficiently purged.
Perhaps most telling is the collapse in market psychology, captured starkly by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which plunged to 15, entering “Extreme Fear” territory. This marks the lowest reading since March 2025, a period that ultimately coincided with a market bottom when Bitcoin found support near US$76,000. Retail investors, overwhelmed by the speed and severity of the decline, have fled to the perceived safety of stablecoins, pushing Tether’s dominance to 7.2 per cent, a 30-day high. Social sentiment has turned sharply negative, with average daily scores falling to 4.29 out of 10, and viral commentary reflecting deep pessimism toward even leading altcoins.
Phrases like “Solana’s fuel is running out” have gained traction, illustrating how quickly narrative momentum can reverse in stressed markets. Historically, sustained readings below 20 on the Fear & Greed Index have often preceded short-term bounces, as excessive fear creates oversold conditions ripe for contrarian positioning. However, such rebounds typically require a catalyst, and in the current environment, that catalyst remains uncertain.
Technically, Bitcoin’s daily RSI has plummeted to 9.05, a level that suggests extreme oversold conditions rarely seen outside major market dislocations. This raises the possibility of a reflexive bounce, particularly if macro conditions stabilise or if institutional buyers step in near key support levels. El Salvador recently deployed over US$100 million in purchases at the US$90,000 level, suggesting strong hands view this zone as a strategic entry point. Whether Bitcoin can hold this critical threshold in the face of ongoing liquidations and macro uncertainty will likely determine near-term market direction.
In summary, the current crypto sell-off is not an isolated event, but rather part of a broader reassessment of risk across global markets. It reflects the convergence of three powerful forces: a macro regime shift driven by sticky inflation and delayed monetary easing, a violent derivatives-driven deleveraging, and a collapse in market sentiment that has pushed fear to multi-month extremes.
While technical indicators hint at potential exhaustion, any sustainable recovery will depend on a stabilisation in equity markets, a reduction in liquidation pressure, and a recalibration of Fed expectations. Until then, the path of least resistance for crypto remains downward, with US$90,000 standing as the last line of defence before deeper levels come into play.
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November 17, 2025
Binance Founder CZ Addresses ‘Delicate Question’ of $4.3B Fine Following Trump Pardon
Anndy Lian
Binance Founder CZ Addresses ‘Delicate Question’ of $4.3B Fine Following Trump Pardon
Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao tackled a “delicate question” Sunday about whether the firm might seek a refund of the $4.3 billion fine paid as part of Binance’s 2023 settlement with U.S. authorities, following his recent presidential pardon.
Zhao stated that the matter was a “delicate question,” in response to a tweet from author and blockchain expert Anndy Lian, noting that “I think” any such refund hasn’t been asked for.
“I appreciate the pardon already,” he said, adding that, “There is a balance in asking for more vs ‘what is fair’ vs appreciate what you got already.”
The former Binance CEO said that, “IF we get any refund, we will be investing that in America anyway, to show our appreciation.”
The conversation also raises an obvious complication about Zhao’s use of the word “we.” CZ stepped down from Binance’s executive ranks under the terms of its settlement, so while he’s responding to a question about “your” $4.3 billion, that fine was paid by the exchange—and he would be unable to speak on its behalf.
Under the terms of the plea agreement reached as part of the settlement, Binance agreed to forfeit $2.5 billion and to pay a criminal fine of $1.8 billion, while Zhao personally paid a fine of $50 million.
Decrypt has reached out to Binance for clarification and will update this article should they respond.
CZ’s presidential pardonPresident Donald Trump pardoned Zhao last month, with the clemency ending the legal consequences from his guilty plea to violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws.
Zhao pleaded guilty in November 2023 to charges of failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering program at Binance, allowing funds linked to terrorism, hacking, and other crimes to flow through the exchange.
The Binance founder was sentenced to four months in prison last May and served his time at a minimum security facility in Lompoc, California.
In May, in an exclusive interview with Decrypt’s sister company Rug Radio, Zhao dismissed reports that he had offered Binance.US equity in exchange for clemency.
Trump defended his decision in a “60 Minutes” interview published early this month, describing Zhao as a “respected” entrepreneur who had been the “victim of weaponization by government,” noting he had heard “it was a Biden witch hunt.”
Democrats immediately condemned the pardon, with Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) castigating it as “an appalling but unsurprising reflection of his presidency” and insisting “the pardon was the payoff.”
Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Adam Schiff (D-CA) introduced a resolution to rebuke the pardon, and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) described it as “blatant corruption,” noting he plans to pursue legislation barring lawmakers from holding crypto.
Binance’s closeness to the Trump family’s crypto empire had raised eyebrows well before the pardon. In early March, the exchange handled a $2 billion investment from Abu Dhabi’s MGX that was settled in USD1, the stablecoin minted by the Trumps’ World Liberty Financial project.
In June, U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Jeff Merkley (D-OR) wrote to the CEOs of MGX and Binance requesting that the firms preserve records relating to the USD1 investment, describing it as “effectively cutting President Trump into a multi-billion-dollar international deal.”
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CZ to Invest $4.3B DoJ Fine in the US if Refunded Post Pardon
Anndy Lian
CZ to Invest $4.3B DoJ Fine in the US if Refunded Post Pardon
Key NotesChangpeng Zhao says any refunded fine would be used for U.S.investments.Legal experts argue the fine applies to Binance, not CZ personally.CZ’s legal team has publicly rejected the rumors of a crypto payoff for the pardon.Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao has suggested that if the US government ever returns any portion of the $4.3 billion settlement paid by his company, he would reinvest it back into the American economy. The comment comes after the executive saw a presidential pardon in October.
Zhao acknowledged on X that asking for a refund could be excessive, as he already appreciated the pardon. He confirmed that he had not yet made any such request, but if in case he receives any amount, it would be used to benefit America as a token of gratitude.
Will CZ Receive a $4.3B Refund?
The discussion started from a public question posed by blockchain advisor Anndy Lian. Some observers argue that a presidential pardon removes guilt and that the multibillion-dollar penalty no longer stands.
Notably, the $4.3 billion settlement was imposed on Binance as a company for its failure to comply with anti-money laundering and sanctions regulations. A presidential pardon applies to criminal liability, not necessarily to corporate financial settlements.
As a result, many legal analysts are suggesting that the fine still remains legally binding unless challenged and overturned.
Rumors of Crypto Payoff RejectedDonald Trump’s presidential pardon of CZ has resulted in massive scrutiny. Critics argue that the pardon raises serious questions about conflicts of interest and the fairness of regulatory enforcement.
Many claim that Zhao or Binance secretly paid President Donald Trump in cryptocurrency to obtain clemency. However, Teresa Goody Guillen, who led Zhao’s U.S. defense team, dismissed the allegation during a recent interview with crypto expert Anthony Pompliano.
Guillen noted that any large crypto transfer would be publicly visible on the blockchain. She added that Zhao has never attempted to buy influence before, during, or after sentencing.
Trump also previously dismissed such rumors, claiming he didn’t know CZ personally. He framed the pardon as correcting an unfair campaign by the previous administration against the crypto industry.
The pardon came after CZ pleaded guilty in 2023 to violating the US Bank Secrecy Act for his exchange’s anti-money-laundering lapses. He served four months in prison and paid a $50 million personal fine.
Source: https://www.coinspeaker.com/cz-to-invest-4-3b-doj-fine-in-the-us-if-refunded-post-pardon/
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