What if Trump or Clinton exited?
The presidential campaign of 2016 is ugly.
Hyperbolic rhetoric thrown daily by both parties is frequently cruel and often devoid of facts to substantiate the vitriol. Americans tuned into the election, indeed people watching around the world, could be forgiven for feeling angst, fatigue and disappointment bordering on depression at the caustic nature of charges batted back and forth between the contending candidates: crazy, monstrous, crooked, liar, racist, xenophobic, narcissist, corrupt, demagogue, etc.
Clearly, the intent of the escalating verbal onslaughts is to destroy. But, what if one or the other side is successful? Following are scenarios for the upheaval of unintended consequences that would come if either Trump or Clinton were somehow forced out before Nov. 8.
Unlikely? Absolutely. Impossible given all the charges being thrown? Arguably, no.
First the Grand Old Party
The GOP should be careful what it wishes for as it continues its unrelenting attacks to demolish the character and viability of Hillary Clinton. Assuming that Trump, his dutiful surrogates, and the GOP have considered logical outcomes for the all-out months-long assault strategy, one might ask: What is the endgame if they prove successful?
Specifically, what if a combination of often reckless and unfounded accusations about Benghazi, the ongoing email scandal, the Clinton Foundation, or some other potential scandal the GOP undoubtedly has on simmer, results in Clinton withdrawing from the race prior to Nov. 8?
Are Republicans prepared for that possibility? And would it place the GOP in a better position to win the election?
One could argue not.
Without Clinton, who would become the Democratic candidate? Logically, Bernie Sanders. That isn’t an outcome Republicans should cheer.
As recently as May 29, polls showed Sanders beating Trump by a considerable margin over Hillary Clinton in virtually every poll. PolitiFact Poll Summaries
PolitiFact reported: “…Sanders is correct that he fares better against Trump than Clinton does in every poll over the past six weeks — more than 6 points better than Clinton, on average. And Sanders is beating Trump by an average of 12 points in these eight polls, so ‘big numbers’ seems like a reasonable description for Sanders to use.”
Clinton being forced out, and Sanders parachuting in this late in the campaign could solidify and motivate Democratic supporters nation wide from young to old, and across ethnic and cultural groups. The “liberal” turnout spurred by anger could be stunning.
It’s difficult to imagine that Donald Trump could win given current polls that strongly favor Clinton. It could be postured that Bernie Sanders would maintain the same levels of support, maybe more given a surge of high emotions. Further, although the GOP would undoubtedly try, there may not be sufficient time for Trump and Co. to mount a new, effective character assassination campaign on Sanders.
What if Trump is forced out?
Of course, the case could also be made in the reverse. If the Clinton camp and news media, with the help of an increasingly Trump-weary GOP, managed to force Trump out, who would take his place?
It’s doubtful it would be Ted Cruz given his performance at the GOP convention and the distaste he engenders among many in the party. So, if not him, who? Would any of the primary contenders have the appeal necessary to pick up a campaign and unite the party with less than three months to go? Doubtful.
But, what if the new GOP flag bearer was Paul Ryan? The Democrats could find themselves in an unenviable position since it’s likely that the Party’s Congressional leader would gain wide support. Ryan has said he has no intention of running, but in the event Trump had to leave, it is not difficult to conceive him feeling a patriotic duty. It’s entirely possible that Ryan could motivate Republicans to turn out in much the same way that Sanders could do for Democrats.
Bottom line, both parties are likely stuck and perhaps better off with the candidates now in place. Smart replacements could really turn the 2016 presidential race on its head.
So, note to both parties: There’s reason to fear the law of unintended consequences.


