Star Trek or Blade Runner
Like much of the world I’m sitting on tender hooks waiting for the US election. This is arguably the most important vote of recent times (even more important than Brexit) and the results will dictate our future.
The battle has already commenced and the fate of the world is now in play. Whatever the outcome, there will be tremendous knock on affects. This isn’t just an election for a president, it’s a clash of values and one of these two completely opposing forces will prevail and create momentum that will shape the new world. Th US can once more ‘save the world’ or literally trash it.
So what are the possible outcomes?
The global impact of the upcoming US election on humanity cannot be understated. Whichever way the election goes, around the world the result will be felt. From a top level view, there are four possible outcomes, well two times two candidates actually. One candidate could win by a landslide or one of them could win in a tight and hotly contentious election.
As Trump and Biden, and their supporters, are so different, it makes looking at landslide wins fairly straight forward so let’s look at that prospect.
To be clear.
Landslide = winning electoral college, popular vote and controlling the senate.
Contentious = Everything else
We know exactly what would happen if there was a Trump landslide. Even more of what we’ve already had. Financial inequality would continue to widen, even pick up pace. Climate change would be put on a back burner. Putin of Russia, Erdogan of Turkey, Xi Jinping of China, Kim Jong-un, Bolsonaro of Brazil, Modi of India, Netanyahu of Israel and every other ‘strong man’ would have carte blanche to do as they want. IMHO, it would be a disaster.
If Trump wins. Don’t expect four more years of what we’ve already had. Expect far more. Controlling the senate, the supreme court and the white house would allow Trump to do even more of what’s he’s already been doing. He will continue to support dictators and they will feel more emboldened. Destruction of the environment will not be slowed down, financial inequality will continue to widen and these social divisions will continue to create tense and dangerous situations.
A Trump victory also increases the chances of the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal as Trump is a brexiter. Boris’ own party is getting upset with his ineptitude so his position is fragile, he needs a deal with either the US or the EU. Boris will sign anything so that he can say that he has a deal as that would bolster his chances of remaining PM in 2021. Trump gives him a chance at a US deal so he can say no to the EU.
A Trump landslide is an unlikely scenario though. I can’t see Trumo winning the electoral college and the popular vote. But, if he wins either one of them and hangs on to the Senate (even after a contentious battle), he will say he won a landslide victory and behave as such.
So what would happen if there was a Biden landslide?
For starters, much of the world would breath a sigh of relief and the liberal western democracies around the world would once again be able to work together to pursue emerging common goals such as addressing climate change, social care and financial inequality.
The US would quickly rejoin international groups and agreements it has abandoned, such as the Paris Accords. Climate change would become a major driver of the US and world economies going forward. Reversing the widening financial disparity we currently see and providing social care for all will become core policy objectives in most liberal democracies.
A Biden landslide is possible and this is the direction liberals and youth want to take. Not just in the US, but around the world. While this kind of a political and social swing may be difficult to imagine, the US has often swung from one extreme to another. It’s like a pendulum that has swung too far in one direction – and could now swing far in the other direction to balance it.
The EU and many other liberal democracies of the world are already trying to address these social democratic issues now they would have a strong partner and a helping hand rather than an opposing force. The dictators of the world however would be caught on a backfoot. They would not have free reign any more to do as they please with no repercussions. Dictators would be brought to heal and their local liberal democratic opposition strengthened.
If Biden wins the election without the Democrats controlling the Senate then we can expect the same policies from Biden as with a landslide – but with obstacles being thrown in the way by the Republicans so they’ll be watered down.
A Biden landslide could potentially change the Brexit outcome as well. Boris will know that there will not be any US soundbite deals forthcoming with Biden and that honouring the Good Friday Agreement will be critical for any sort of US deal. Biden is Catholic and of Irish descent and the US Congress feels very strongly about the Good Friday Agreement – which they played a major role in crafting. And, between his handling of covid and the looming brexit pain, Boris knows his position as PM will be difficult to maintain if he has no EU or US deal.
The likely outcome would see Bojo caving in at the last minute and doing an EU deal. Theoretically, he could possible try some self-preservation and say that with covid taking so much attention and resource, the responsible thing would be to get an extension until things have stabilised. At least that would stop a Brexit disaster being piled on top of the covid hardships so his position would be stronger. He’d have some upset brexiters but, he and Cummings would still be in charge. This is unlikely though as Cummings wants out and he pulls the strings. A Biden win increases the chances of an EU deal though.
This is the beginning of the Star Trek vs Bladerunner battle in come the evolution. And it’s happening now. I’ll have my popcorn ready and be glued to the TV. Yeah, yeah, it may drag on for months. Or it could be over on November 3rd!
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