Will there be an AI pullback?

In my experience, whenever something feels inevitable, there is a meaningful pullback coming. Examples are the dotcom bubble and digital privacy backlash (like 3rd party cookie confusion). I believe the same will happen with AI. Note that the pullback will ultimately be a blip in the long-term trend. In the moment, it will seem significant.

The AI pullback will be fueled by multiple high-profile failures caused by AI. It will happen in places where the boundaries are being pushed too quickly…where AI was not monitored for too long. Those who are trying to do AI right (with explainability and alignment) will be splattered by the fallout from those who are moving too fast and reckless.

The form of the failures could be:

Customers improperly losing access to their bank accounts due to incorrect fraud flagging…that then takes far too long to resolve.An autonomous truck causing a terrible accident…even though the accident rate of autonomous vehicles is far lower than human-directed vehicles.Drone harassment (via collision or surveillance) when those with negative intent seek to disrupt the lives of their ideological opponents.

The possible failures are only limited by our imaginations. It will not matter that these incidents are a tiny fraction of AI deployment and application. Social media and the traditional media will hype these failures to the Nth degree. Availability heuristics will take over. Two things will happen:

The lesser-informed population (who think the failures are widespread) will allow their trust in AI and its potential to be damaged. They will start to actively resist AI. This will take many forms (protests, boycotting AI-forward companies, destruction of property that even looks like AI, …).The government will lean in because the constituents of every elected official will demand that we “do something.” As usual, the majority of new government regulations will have the opposite effect. The “winners” will be the giant corporations that can afford the lobby to capture carveouts in the legislation for themselves.

But, this too will pass. The AI genie is out of the bottle. The benefits are too great to ignore. We are still plumbing the depths of potential harm. But, the remedy for the harm is largely on the human side. Those working on AI need to keep explainability and alignment a top priority. All of us need to accept the coming wave and be as proactive as possible in adapting to the massive changes in our jobs, economies, and societies. It will take time to understand and embrace the new paradigms.

What do you think?

What am I missing? Is the AI momentum so great that it will quickly roll over any the pullback? What will be the greatest changes to our economy and society? What will be the most important adaptation for humans to make?

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Thank you for reading my leadership blog post. I hope you found it interesting and thought provoking.

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