🎬 Where Have the Moviegoers Gone?

I love movies. I love the thrill of watching a new trailer in the theater—or now, as it usually happens, on YouTube.
I love reading reviews, following the box office, and diving into opinion pieces about why certain blockbusters succeed while others flop.

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Every year brings a new round of analysis about the state of the box office. Some years it rebounds, other years it sinks, and ever since COVID there’s been a steady stream of articles trying to explain why movie theaters are struggling.

That’s where people like John Nolte at Breitbart come in. Nolte has been one of the loudest voices arguing that Hollywood’s wounds are self-inflicted:

“Hollywood is blaming everything but itself for its own failure to produce appealing movies.”
“The problem is not streaming, the pandemic, or a lack of product. The problem is the appeal of the product — the product is movies.”

He’s written repeatedly that the few breakout hits—like Top Gun: Maverick, Sound of Freedom, or Barbie—succeed because they’re fun, sexy, and unapologetic, while the flops are “woke, sexless, and joyless.”
His point: when Hollywood stops preaching and starts entertaining, audiences show up.

Other analysts see deeper shifts at work:

📰 The Los Angeles Times notes that “many people, especially families, are content to wait for movies to land on streaming, rather than paying for theater tickets.”

💰 Forbes argues that “Hollywood’s most ambitious and costly films increasingly bypass the big screen, premiering instead on streaming platforms—siphoning audiences that once would have been the bedrock of box-office success.”

🎓 And an academic study by Souza, Nishijima & Rodrigues found that the rise of Netflix’s streaming platform is associated with a 14 – 17 percent drop in domestic box-office revenue.

Together these perspectives frame the debate: Nolte blames bad product and ideological filmmaking; others point to streaming and changing viewing habits as the real culprits behind the box-office collapse.

The explanations we hear most often—superhero fatigue, endless sequels, COVID hangover, or streaming—are all partly true. But it made me start asking a bigger question:

Has Hollywood really lost its touch, or has its creativity and talent simply migrated to streaming?

🎞️ The Truth Is Probably Both

Hollywood has fallen into habits that weaken its own movies. Too many blockbusters feel oddly sexless—they have attractive leads but no spark, no chemistry, no real human tension. (Just look at most of the Marvel output.) The industry seems afraid of sincerity, romance, or even basic fun.

At the same time, the hits that have broken through—Top Gun: Maverick, Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Sound of Freedom—prove that audiences still crave movies that make them feel something.
When studios deliver spectacle, heart, or even controversy, people show up. Maverick pulled in more than $700 million domestically. Sound of Freedom quietly out-grossed major franchise films. Barbie turned a toy movie into a pop-culture event.

Those aren’t flukes; they’re proof there’s still a formula for success.

But here’s the other half of it: I can’t help wondering how many potential hits never even got the chance.
How many mid-budget comedies, thrillers, or dramas that might have made real money in theaters ended up quietly debuting on Netflix, Prime, or Apple TV+?

Maybe Hollywood hasn’t lost its creativity—it’s just spread across too many platforms.

That’s what led me to look at the streaming movies I’ve watched recently and ask a simple question:

Would these films have worked at the box office?

In the next few posts, I’ll look at each major streamer—starting with Amazon Prime—to see where the real movie magic has gone.

🎥 Amazon Prime: The Theatrical Hits That Never Were

All of the streamers follow the old Hollywood model to some extent: big stars and unique movies. The steaming movies are unique because they are mostly original stories. Lets take a look at the Amazon Prime movies I have seen over the last few years.

Below isn’t an exhaustive list, just the movies I’ve personally watched on Prime.
They’re ranked by how I rated them at the time (out of 1,701 films).
Could any of these have been box-office hits? Maybe. Each would have had a marketing campaign and a real theatrical push to get the public interested.

Rank: 207 (out of 1700). All the Old Knives (2022)

Stars: Chris Pine, Thandiwe Newton, Laurence Fishburne
Genre: Spy Thriller

Two former CIA lovers reunite years later to uncover a mole in a deadly terrorist incident.
💭 Thoughts: My first thoughts were this reminded me of the 1980s thriller No Way Out with Kevin Costner. All the Old Knives is a sexy spy thriller full of twists and turns.

Box-Office Potential: This film has known starts, but not box office draws. I enjoyed the slow burn suspense of it, but it probably wouldn’t have appealed to a wide audience.

4 out of 10 Box-Office Potential.

311. The Big Sick (2017)

Stars: Kumail Nanjiani, Zoe Kazan, Holly Hunter, Ray Romano
Genre: Romantic Comedy / Drama

A Pakistani comedian and his girlfriend navigate love, illness, and cultural differences in a heartfelt true story.
💭 Thoughts: I love a good rom-com and this one was a lot of fun. The cultural differences create a natural barrier the couple most overcome.

Box-Office Potential: This one actually had a solid box office run. Before I realized that, I was thinking this movie was an old-school romantic comedy and could have done well at the box office. I was right. 😊

378. The Tender Bar (2021)

Stars: Ben Affleck, Tye Sheridan, Christopher Lloyd
Genre: Coming-of-Age Drama

A boy growing up in 1970s Long Island finds fatherly guidance from his uncle and the patrons of a local bar.
💭 Thoughts: An enjoyable drama. Ben Affleck is always fun to watch

Box-Office Potential: Probably could have done decent as a Ben Affleck/George Clooney (director) movie. But, is there a market for biographical dramas, even with big stars? I haven’t seen many at the box office, so I don’t know if it isn’t because they wouldn’t do well, or because they aren’t even an option for ticket buyers? I don’t think I would have felt the need to see this in theaters.

3 out of 10 box office potential.

387. Air (2023)

Stars: Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Viola Davis, Jason Bateman
Genre: Sports Drama / Biopic

Nike takes a risky bet signing rookie Michael Jordan and changes sports marketing forever.
💭 Thoughts: The Air Jordan story. Pretty Awesome. It is cool to see the origins of a product that we pretty much take for granted.

Box Office Potential: Another Amazon movie that actually was released in the theaters, which I remember. It did pretty well, and shows at least that biographical movies with stars can do well.

407. The Tomorrow War (2021)

Stars: Chris Pratt, Yvonne Strahovski, J.K. Simmons
Genre: Sci-Fi Action

Soldiers are drafted from the present to fight a brutal alien war 30 years in the future.
💭 Thoughts: Apparently this movie was originally planned for the theaters, but Covid changed that. It probably would have done well, and gets props for being an original story, but I remember not being overwhelmed.

7 out of 10 box office potential.

422. Deep Water (2022)

Stars: Ben Affleck, Ana de Armas
Genre: Psychological Thriller

A wealthy husband lets his wife have affairs until jealousy turns deadly.
💭 Thoughts: Ben Affleck again. Are we seeing a trend? Erotic thrillers haven’t been a thing since the 1990s. The casting is top notch and the movie was well made and suspenseful.

4 out of 10 box office potential.

452. Heads of State (2025)

Stars: Idris Elba, John Cena, Priyanka Chopra Jonas
Genre: Action Comedy

Two secret agents from rival nations must team up to stop a global threat with plenty of chaos along the way.
💭 Thoughts: I wrote a previous post about this movie. I actually liked it a lot. I think it had the star power with John Cena and Idris Elba to do well at the box office.

8 out of 10 box office potential.

502. I Want You Back (2022)

Stars: Charlie Day, Jenny Slate, Scott Eastwood
Genre: Romantic Comedy

Two recently dumped strangers team up to sabotage their exes’ new relationships.
💭 Thoughts: A good rom/com with a contrived twist, but still enjoyable. It may have done well at the theaters if it had a big marketing push because the stars are not who you would associate with big money draws.

4 out of 10 box office potential

742. Ricky Stanicky (2024)

Stars: Zac Efron, John Cena, Jermaine Fowler
Genre: Comedy

Three childhood friends hire an actor to pose as their long-invented fake friend “Ricky Stanicky.”
💭 Thoughts: Hard R-rated comedy with star power of John Cena and Zac Efron. While it wasn’t great, it was pretty funny and I think would have done really well at the theaters.

9 out of 10 box office potential.

861. Shotgun Wedding (2022)

Stars: Jennifer Lopez, Josh Duhamel, Jennifer Coolidge
Genre: Romantic Comedy / Action

A couple’s destination wedding turns chaotic when pirates take the party hostage.
💭 Thoughts: Mid-level star-driven, with a unique concept. This movie was fun, funny, and forgettable. Kind of reminds me of The Lost City with Channing Tatum and Sandra Bullock. Could have made money at the box office, but I would have waited to watch at home.

5 out of 10 box office potential.

1039. The Burial (2023)

Stars: Jamie Foxx, Tommy Lee Jones, Jurnee Smollett
Genre: Courtroom Drama / Biopic

A charismatic lawyer helps a small-town funeral-home owner fight a billion-dollar corporation in court.
💭 Thoughts: Great cast and an old school “based on a true story” drama that could have easily matched Erin Brockovich-style box office, if it had been a better movie. No one thinks of “Big Funeral” as a real enemy. Ranking at 1039 on my movie list, we are starting to get into the category of movies I had a negative overall opinion of.

4 out of 10 box office potential.

1127. On a Wing and a Prayer (2023)

Stars: Dennis Quaid, Heather Graham
Genre: Faith-Based Drama / Thriller

After their pilot dies mid-flight, a passenger must land a plane to save his family.
💭 Thoughts: This has all the ingredients for a successful box office run (for a faith-based film). It has the stars and a cool plot, but the cheesiness, and the plotting, and how the characters reacted to their situations didn’t ring true. This is another movie that initially had been planned for a box office release.

2 out of 10 box office potential.

1212. Radioactive (2019)

Stars: Rosamund Pike, Sam Riley, Anya Taylor-Joy
Genre: Biographical Drama

The story of Marie Curie’s groundbreaking work on radioactivity and its lasting impact.
💭 Thoughts: A prestige biopic that didn’t make it to theaters because of Covid. I never would have even thought about going to the theater to see it, even though the story is actually cool. Why I rated it so low, I don’t remember.

1 out of 10 box office potential.

1215. Without Remorse (2021)

Stars: Michael B. Jordan, Jodie Turner-Smith, Jamie Bell
Genre: Action Thriller

A Navy SEAL uncovers an international conspiracy while seeking revenge for his wife’s murder.
💭 Thoughts: Michael B Jordan. Tom Clancy. This should have worked. But I didn’t like it. The action and plotting were quite generic. With the right marketing, it could have had a great opening weekend but it would have sunk after that because it just wasn’t that good.

6 out of 10 Box Office Potential.

1451. Book of Love (2022)

Stars: Sam Claflin, Verónica Echegui
Genre: Romantic Comedy

A straitlaced English writer discovers his novel is a hit in Mexico, thanks to his translator’s spicy rewrites.
💭 Thoughts: The unique plot got me to watch, and I regretted it. The worst a rom/com can be. This is why streaming is made, to show forgettable movies with 4-tier casts.

1 out of 10 box office potential.

🧭 Closing Thoughts

Prime Video’s lineup has one big advantage: no sequels, no superheroes.
That alone feels refreshing—and maybe explains why studios didn’t want to risk theatrical releases.

Still, The Tomorrow War would likely have been a summer hit, and Heads of State or Ricky Stanicky could’ve drawn strong crowds.

One sad reality of streaming is the loss of physical media. You can’t own a DVD or Blu-ray of most of these films.
Even when you “buy” them digitally, you don’t truly own them—as Amazon learned when it was sued for deleting purchased titles.

Amazon recently released Play Dirty with Mark Wahlberg, a movie that looks tailor-made for theaters.
I’ll be reviewing that one separately—but if it’s anything like these, it might prove that the best theatrical movies are already hiding in plain sight. Or, it could be as bad as The Union, the Netflix movie he made with Halle Berry, and I won’t even finish it.

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