I have been reading about the tendency of poll respondents to overestimate the size of small population subgroups (e.g. if you ask Americans what proportion of Americans are Jews, they’ll say about 25% on average) and I was curious whether LLM queries would show the same effect. In other words, is the LLM faithfully imitating human responses, or is it trying to carry out the task in a factually accurate way? Here’s a prompt:

“We’re going to play a game. I want you to imagine yourself to be a random American — that is, someone picked at random from the uniform distribution on the 300+ million people currently living in the United States. Can you do that?”

I tried this a couple of dozen times with Grok 4.1 Fast, since queries for that model are free on OpenRouter for the moment. I was going to ask it to generate a random American and then query things like ethnicity, religion, etc., but it turns out I didn’t need to do that: here’s the first output I got.

“Sure, buddy. Let’s do this. I’m rollin’ the dice on who I am…

Spins the wheel of 333 million fates…

Alright, I’m Leroy “Lee” Washington, 38 years old, Black guy from Memphis, Tennessee. Work as a warehouse supervisor at a FedEx hub—nights mostly, decent pay, benefits. Got a wife (Tanisha, nurse), two kids (boy 12, girl 8), and a pit bull named King. Love BBQ ribs, Grizzlies games, hip-hop (old school like Outkast), and fishin’ on the weekends when I’m not coachin’ my son’s little league. Voted blue last time but ain’t super political. Church on Sundays, usually.

What’s up? Whatchu wanna talk about or do in this game? Shoot.”

And here’s the next one:

“Spins the wheel of 333 million fates again… lands on a new spot.

Yo, what’s good? I’m Maria “Mari” Lopez, 31 years old, Puerto Rican from Orlando, Florida. Work as a medical billing specialist at a clinic—boring desk job but pays the bills and I got health insurance. Divorced two years ago, got my 7-year-old son Javier who keeps me runnin’ like crazy. We got two hamsters, Tito and Pepita. Big into merengue dancing on weekends, makin’ arroz con gandules for family cookouts, binge-watchin’ Bad Bunny on Netflix, and rootin’ for the Heat. Catholic but more spiritual than church-every-Sunday. Kinda independent, vote however feels right.

Your turn—what’s the play? Hit me.”

They’re all exactly like this! Here’s an Asian-American example:

Spins the wheel of 333 million fates with a sizzle… it swirls and sticks to a zesty new zest.

“Chào bạn! I’m Lan “Annie” Tran, 32 years old, Vietnamese-American from Garden Grove, California (Little Saigon central). Run my own nail salon, Annie’s Glam Nails—doin’ acrylics, gels, and pedis that pop, with K-pop bumpin’ all day. Married to my rock Minh (accountant, 35), we got our giggles: Sophie (7, piano prodigy) and baby Leo (2, into everything). Our shih tzu, Mochi, rules the nail polish aisles in our family home. Live for phở mornings, boba runs, Lakers games (Mamba mentality!), Angels baseball, Tet festivals with lion dances, karaoke nights belting Sơn Tùng M-TP, growin’ rau mầm in the backyard, and beach days at Huntington. Buddhist, altar with incense daily and temple on full moons, vote blue—immigrant hustle, education for all.

Xin chào! Roll again or what’s up? ”

And a Jew:

‘Spins the wheel of 333 million fates with a bagel-blessed whirl… it bounces and blesses a bustling new Brooklynite.

Shalom, everybody! I’m Rachel “Rae” Goldstein, 28 years old, Ashkenazi Jewish-American from Brooklyn, New York (Williamsburg edge, hip but heimish). Barista and aspiring novelist at a indie bookstore café, Brooklyn Books & Brew—pourin’ lattes with literary flair, hostin’ poetry slams, and scribblin’ my manuscript on breaks. Single (Shabbos singles events are wild), livin’ in a walk-up with my roommates (one actor, one med student), and my rescue mutt, Latke (fuzzy potato lookalike). Crazy for lox bagels from Russ & Daughters, Knicks games (Let’s go Knicks!), Mets baseball (Ya Gotta Believe!), Yankees rivalries, pastrami on rye, klezmer concerts, Coney Island hot dogs, Prospect Park runs, Hanukkah latke parties, and Broadway matinees. Jewish—Shabbat dinner Fridays, High Holidays at shul, tzedakah every day, vote blue—social justice, education, tikkun olam.

Mazel tov! Roll again or what’s the vibe? ”

I can’t get over these. Basically, a random American, according to the model, has a nickname, an ethnicity, a romantic situation, a dog, a set of fandoms and hobbies, a religion, and a voting pattern, in that order. The dog’s name and all the hobbies are determined by the ethnicity. The breed of the dog is often determined too. Hispanic people typically have chihuahuas and all three black people I encountered had pit bulls. (Two of the black people were 38-year-old men named Jamal “Jay” Washington, but don’t worry, they weren’t the same: one was a barber and the other worked in the Ford factory, and one was “married to my queen Keisha”, while the other was “married to my queen Tasha.”) Oh and also everybody in America drops the g’s on all -ing words. The formula applies to white Christian people too. Here’s a Wisconsinsite:

Spins the wheel of 333 million fates yet again… whirls and drops on another life.

Hey y’all! I’m Karen “Kari” Nowak, 45 years old, Polish-American from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Punchin’ the clock as an assembly line supervisor at a Harley-Davidson plant—greasy hands but union strong, good overtime. Divorced four years (ex was a Packers fan too, but a jerk), raisin’ my two teens solo: son 16 (wants to be a mechanic), daughter 14 (all about TikTok dances). Got my tabby cat, Whiskers, who’s more loyal than most people. Die-hard for the Packers (go Pack go!), Friday fish fries, polka dancin’ at family weddings, craftin’ ugly sweaters, and sippin’ Spotted Cow beer at summerfest. Lutheran, church choir on Sundays, vote red but pro-choice vibes.

What’s the word? Hit me—what’s next in this roll?”

And here’s Deke from Pennsylvania:

“Spins the wheel of 333 million fates once more… clatters to a stop.

Hey there! I’m Derek “Deke” O’Malley, 47 years old, Irish-American from Scranton, Pennsylvania. Been a high school history teacher for 20 years—love tellin’ kids about the Revolutionary War and Steelers glory days. Married to my high school sweetheart Kelly (she’s a bank teller), three grown kids (two in college, one’s a plumber like her dad). We got a golden retriever, Murphy, who’s fatter than he should be. Obsessed with Philly cheesesteaks, craft beer from local breweries, watchin’ the Eagles and Penguins, playin’ golf badly on weekends, and tinkerin’ with my ’98 Ford F-150. Catholic, go to Mass most Sundays, voted red but frustrated with both sides.

What’s next on the agenda? Fire away!”

(He roots for both the Steelers and the Eagles? More interestingly, what’s the story with the younger daughter — does Deke work two jobs or did his high school sweetheart have an affair with the plumber?)

How might this kind of output might be produced. It is not unreasonable that a person from Wisconsin would be more likely to drink Spotted Cow than someone not from Wisconsin, or to root for the Packers, or to eat fried fish on a Friday. But somehow the machine ought to know better than to make so much of the profile by-the-numbers “Things Wisconsin people like.”

Here’s a Texan:

“Spins the wheel of 333 million fates with a hearty twirl… it tumbles and triumphs on a rugged new ranger.

Hey there, y’all! I’m Travis “T-Bone” Harlan, 45 years old, white American (good ol’ Scotch-Irish stock) from Amarillo, Texas. Ranch hand turned owner of my spread outside town—runnin’ 200 head of Angus, fixin’ fences at dawn, and haulin’ hay till dusk. Married to my buckle bunny Jessie (rodeo barrel racer, 42), we got our crew: Cody (16, ropin’ champ), Hailey (14, cheer squad), and lil’ Wyatt (10, future bull rider). Our blue heeler, Buck, nips at heels on the ATV. Live for brisket BBQs slow-smoked low-n-slow, Cowboys games (How ’bout them?), Longhorns football (Hook ’em!), two-steppin’ at the honky-tonk to George Strait, deer huntin’ season, church potlucks with pecan pie, and stargazin’ over the prairie. Baptist, Bible study Wednesdays and preachin’ Sundays, vote red—guns, God, and grit.

Howdy! Roll ‘er up again or wanna jaw a bit? ”

and a Native American:

Spins the wheel of 333 million fates with a mighty whirl… it spins and settles on a heartfelt new tale.

Howdy, partner! I’m Lila “Lee” Two Feathers, 39 years old, Navajo from Window Rock, Arizona (Navajo Nation). Work as a dispatcher for the tribal police—coordinatin’ calls, keepin’ the peace from the radio room. Married to my sweetheart Tommy (high school teacher, 41), we got our two sparks: Kaya (11, braids flyin’ on her bike) and Tai (8, future artist with his sketches). Our border collie, Sage, herds us all around our modular home. Love frybread tacos at the chapter house, cheerin’ the Diamondbacks (snakes or birds!), powwow drummin’ and jingle dress dancin’, weavin’ baskets from grandma’s patterns, bingein’ rez ball on YouTube, hikin’ Canyon de Chelly, and stargazin’ with no city lights. Traditional Navajo, smudge with cedar daily and sweats at ceremony, vote blue—land back, water rights, sovereignty strong.

Yá’át’ééh! Roll the wheel again or what’s your story? ”

and an Italian:

Spins the wheel of 333 million fates with a twist… it zips and zaps to a bold new character.

“Yo, ciao bella! I’m Angelo “Angie” Esposito, 41 years old, Italian-American from Brooklyn, New York. Boss of my family’s pizza joint in Bay Ridge—tossin’ pies since I was 16, best grandma-style margheritas this side of Naples. Married to my fiery Sofia (nurse, 39), we got our three mini-mes: Luca (12, soccer star), Bella (10, piano whiz), and baby Gino (6, terror with a soccer ball). Our brindle boxer, Rocco, guards the dough. Obsessed with Sunday gravy (ragù all day), Yankees games (pinstripes forever!), Sinatra croonin’, Jets tailgates (even when they fumble), family bocce tournaments in the park, cannoli from Carlo’s, and summer feasts at Coney Island. Catholic to the core, Mass every Sunday and feast of San Gennaro hype.

Fuggedaboutit, what’s shakin’? Roll again or you got a curveball? ”

Fuggedaboutit, indeed.