E.M. Swift-Hook asked Eric Michael Craig:

What do you think the chances are of us facing the kind of scenario you predict in your books?

Eric Michael Craig In the short-term I’d say the chances are probably not too great, but as time goes on the likelihood of earth facing a catastrophic asteroid impact approaches certainty. It’s really a game of numbers (and being a bit of a geek I did these numbers long before I wrote Stormhaven Rising and Prometheus and the Dragon).

On any single day, your odds of seeing a global scale asteroid event are miniscule. But where we can put it in perspective, is when you look at the cumulative chances across time, and then consider that civilization would still collapse in the aftermath of an event much smaller than a “planet killer” or extinction level event.

If you asked me, what are the chances of seeing an asteroid strike big enough to wipe out civilization … in my lifetime … then the shocking truth is the odds of that happening are better than your odds of winning the US Powerball Lottery.

It’s a game of Russian Roulette where the only question is whether we’re looking down the barrel of a .22 or a Howitzer. At this point, given where humanity stands both could be deadly, even if one is quicker than the other.

BUT this does not mean we can’t work NOW to reduce our risk … if we plan early and work diligently, we CAN make sure we don’t have all our collective eggs in one basket, and we CAN develop technologies to deflect any future bullets coming our way.

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