Duc

“If you’re like most people, you were pretty surprised by these results. Most of us aren’t aware of the wide range of what these words mean to different people. We assume that when we use a term, other people use it in the same way we do and mean the same thing we do.”
― Annie Duke, How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

“The actual outcome casts a shadow over your ability to remember what you knew at the time of the decision.”
― Annie Duke, How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

“Precision uncovers disagreement. It uncovers places where your belief is different from someone else’s belief. And that’s good, because you want to find out when you have something wrong. It gives you the chance to get it right. Think about it like this: Saying “2 + 2 is a small number” will help you get better at math, but it won’t help you become an expert. “A small number” is technically correct, but it is much more helpful for your teacher to find out if you think the answer is 5, or 2, or 4, which are all small numbers. It’s true that the less precise answer makes it harder to be wrong, but you want to find out when you have the wrong answer if you are going to get better at math.”
― Annie Duke, How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices

“Here’s a secret: All guesses are educated guesses because there is almost no estimate you could make about which you literally know nothing.”
― Annie Duke, How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices