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Michal
https://www.goodreads.com/michal_dubrawski
“When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?”
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“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
“Perceptions of the world and of other actors diverge from reality in patterns that we can detect and for reasons that we can understand.”
― Perception and Misperception in International Politics
― Perception and Misperception in International Politics
“The common saying is “I’ll believe it when I see it,” but human perception is more accurately characterized as “I’ll see it when I believe it.” In international politics where expectations of hostility are common, the results are often unfortunate.”
― Perception and Misperception in International Politics
― Perception and Misperception in International Politics
“Ignoring the vices of our friends and the virtues of our enemies sets us up for nasty surprises.”
― Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
― Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Michal’s 2025 Year in Books
Take a look at Michal’s Year in Books, including some fun facts about their reading.
2,211 books
|
267 friends
208 books
|
12 friends
217 books
|
35 friends
17 books
|
9 friends
256 books
|
12 friends
1,517 books
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114 friends
1,492 books
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26 friends
0 books
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90 friends
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