Michal

“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
― Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action”
― Ian Fleming, Goldfinger

“Ever since Roberta Wohlstetter’s pathbreaking study of why the United States was taken by surprise at Pearl Harbor 50 years ago, both academics and members of the Intelligence Community (IC) have made significant progress in understanding intelligence failures. About how to correct these errors and do better we know much less, however, and it is to this subject that this volume makes a major contribution. --Foreword to Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action”
― Robert Jervis

“Ignoring the vices of our friends and the virtues of our enemies sets us up for nasty surprises.”
― Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?