Michal

“Ever since Roberta Wohlstetter’s pathbreaking study of why the United States was taken by surprise at Pearl Harbor 50 years ago, both academics and members of the Intelligence Community (IC) have made significant progress in understanding intelligence failures. About how to correct these errors and do better we know much less, however, and it is to this subject that this volume makes a major contribution. --Foreword to Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action”
― Robert Jervis

“The common saying is “I’ll believe it when I see it,” but human perception is more accurately characterized as “I’ll see it when I believe it.” In international politics where expectations of hostility are common, the results are often unfortunate.”
― Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics

“Critical thinking is an active and ongoing process. It requires that we all think like Bayesians, updating our knowledge as new information comes in.”
― Daniel J. Levitin, A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age

“When the facts change, I change my mind - what do you do, sir?”
― John Maynard Keynes