Michal
https://www.goodreads.com/michal_dubrawski
“Ever since Roberta Wohlstetter’s pathbreaking study of why the United States was taken by surprise at Pearl Harbor 50 years ago, both academics and members of the Intelligence Community (IC) have made significant progress in understanding intelligence failures. About how to correct these errors and do better we know much less, however, and it is to this subject that this volume makes a major contribution. --Foreword to Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action”
―
―
“The common saying is “I’ll believe it when I see it,” but human perception is more accurately characterized as “I’ll see it when I believe it.” In international politics where expectations of hostility are common, the results are often unfortunate.”
― Perception and Misperception in International Politics
― Perception and Misperception in International Politics
“Critical thinking is an active and ongoing process. It requires that we all think like Bayesians, updating our knowledge as new information comes in.”
― A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age
― A Field Guide to Lies: Critical Thinking in the Information Age
“Ignoring the vices of our friends and the virtues of our enemies sets us up for nasty surprises.”
― Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
― Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Michal’s 2024 Year in Books
Take a look at Michal’s Year in Books, including some fun facts about their reading.
Polls voted on by Michal
Lists liked by Michal








































