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CHAPTER 1 THE NEW RULES
“Fuzzy thinking can never be proven wrong. And only when we are proven wrong so clearly that we can no longer deny it to ourselves will we adjust our mental models of the world—producing a clearer picture of reality. Forecast, measure, revise: it is the surest path to seeing better.”
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
“Not knowing is exciting. It's an opportunity to discover.”
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
“Scientists must be able to answer the question “What would convince me I am wrong?” If they can’t, it’s a sign they have grown too attached to their beliefs.”
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
“In describing how we think and decide, modern psychologists often deploy a dual-system model that partitions our mental universe into two domains. System 2 is the familiar realm of conscious thought. It consists of everything we choose to focus on. By contrast, System 1 is largely a stranger to us. It is the realm of automatic perceptual and cognitive operations—like those you are running right now to transform the print on this page into a meaningful sentence or to hold the book while reaching for a glass and taking a sip. We have no awareness of these rapid-fire processes but we could not function without them. We would shut down.”
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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