Eric Eskin

“Knowing what we don’t know is better than thinking we know what we don’t.”
― Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“Fuzzy thinking can never be proven wrong. And only when we are proven wrong so clearly that we can no longer deny it to ourselves will we adjust our mental models of the world—producing a clearer picture of reality. Forecast, measure, revise: it is the surest path to seeing better.”
― Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
― Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“In describing how we think and decide, modern psychologists often deploy a dual-system model that partitions our mental universe into two domains. System 2 is the familiar realm of conscious thought. It consists of everything we choose to focus on. By contrast, System 1 is largely a stranger to us. It is the realm of automatic perceptual and cognitive operations—like those you are running right now to transform the print on this page into a meaningful sentence or to hold the book while reaching for a glass and taking a sip. We have no awareness of these rapid-fire processes but we could not function without them. We would shut down.”
― Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction