“Forecasting, especially when done with “science,” is often the last refuge of the charlatan, and has been so since the beginning of times”
― Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
― Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
“If you say something crazy you will be deemed crazy. But if you create a collection of, say, twenty people who set up an academy and say crazy things accepted by the collective, you now have “peer-reviewing” and can start a department in a university.”
― Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
― Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
“In general, when you hear someone invoking
abstract modernistic notions, you can assume that they got some education (but not enough, or in the wrong discipline) and have too little accountability.”
― Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
abstract modernistic notions, you can assume that they got some education (but not enough, or in the wrong discipline) and have too little accountability.”
― Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
“Typically, the IYI get first-order logic right, but not second order (or higher) effects, making him totally incompetent in complex domains.
The IYI has been wrong, historically, about Stalinism, Maoism, GMOs, Iraq, Libya, Syria, lobotomies, urban planning, low carbohydrate diets, gym machines, behaviorism, trans-fats, Freudianism, portfolio theory, linear regression, HFCS (HighFructose Corn Syrup), Gaussianism, Salafism, dynamic stochastic equilibrium modeling, housing projects, marathon running, selfish genes, election-forecasting models, Bernie Madoff (pre-blowup), and p-values. But he is still convinced that his current position is right.”
― Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
The IYI has been wrong, historically, about Stalinism, Maoism, GMOs, Iraq, Libya, Syria, lobotomies, urban planning, low carbohydrate diets, gym machines, behaviorism, trans-fats, Freudianism, portfolio theory, linear regression, HFCS (HighFructose Corn Syrup), Gaussianism, Salafism, dynamic stochastic equilibrium modeling, housing projects, marathon running, selfish genes, election-forecasting models, Bernie Madoff (pre-blowup), and p-values. But he is still convinced that his current position is right.”
― Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
“Incompetent pilots, those who cannot learn from experience, or don’t mind taking risks they don’t understand, may kill many. But they will
themselves end up at the bottom of, say, the Bermuda Triangle, and cease to represent a threat to others and mankind.”
― Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
themselves end up at the bottom of, say, the Bermuda Triangle, and cease to represent a threat to others and mankind.”
― Skin in the Game: The Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life
Felipe’s 2025 Year in Books
Take a look at Felipe’s Year in Books, including some fun facts about their reading.
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