Tiago

“there is no substitute for simply looking at data properly,”
― David Spiegelhalter, The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data

“Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about.”
― Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

“Signals always come with noise: It is trying to separate out the two that makes the subject interesting.”
― David Spiegelhalter, The Art of Statistics: How to Learn from Data

“Intelligent and educated people are less likely to learn from their mistakes, for instance, or take advice from others. And when they do err, they are better able to build elaborate arguments to justify their reasoning, meaning that they become more and more dogmatic in their views. Worst still, they appear to have a bigger "bias blind spot," meaning they are less able to recognize the holes in their logic.”
― David Robson, The Intelligence Trap: Why Smart People Make Dumb Mistakes