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There is a call for a strategy every time the path to a given destination is not straightforward or whenever judgments are required on resources needed, their effective application, and their appropriate sequence.
“Ask yourself whether the letter K appears more often as the first or as the third letter of English words. You will probably answer that it appears more often as the first letter. Actually, K appears as the third letter twice as often. Why the error? We find it easier to recall words with a certain letter at the beginning than words with that same letter somewhere else.”
― Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
― Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
“But in a cause-and-effect world, if we know the causes we can predict the effects. So “what is chance for the ignorant is not chance for the scientist. Chance is only the measure of our ignorance.”
― Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
― Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
“but between reject and not—reject. You can decide that the probability that you are wrong is so small that you should not reject the hypothesis. You can decide that the probability that you are wrong is so large that you should reject the hypothesis. But with any probability short of zero that you are wrong—certainty rather than uncertainty—you cannot accept a hypothesis.”
― Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
― Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
“There is a strong probability that the hot manager of today will be the cold manager of tomorrow, or at least the day after tomorrow, and vice versa. This”
― Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
― Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
“Stock prices in general follow changes in company fortunes. Investors who focus excessively on the short run are ignoring a mountain of evidence demonstrating that most surges in earnings are unsustainable. On the other hand, companies that encounter problems do not let matters slide indefinitely. Managers will set to work making the hard decisions to put their company back on track”
― Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
― Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk
Rafael’s 2025 Year in Books
Take a look at Rafael’s Year in Books, including some fun facts about their reading.
1,175 books
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91 friends
62 books
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19 friends
32 books
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2 friends
33 books
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3 friends
395 books
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73 friends
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