Rafael

“There is a strong probability that the hot manager of today will be the cold manager of tomorrow, or at least the day after tomorrow, and vice versa. This”
― Peter L. Bernstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

“But if men and women were not at the mercy of impersonal deities and random chance, they could no longer remain passive in the face of an unknown future. They had no choice but to begin making decisions over a far wider range of circumstances and over far longer periods of time than ever before.”
― Peter L. Bernstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

“but between reject and not—reject. You can decide that the probability that you are wrong is so small that you should not reject the hypothesis. You can decide that the probability that you are wrong is so large that you should reject the hypothesis. But with any probability short of zero that you are wrong—certainty rather than uncertainty—you cannot accept a hypothesis.”
― Peter L. Bernstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

“Why, given their advanced mathematical ideas, did the Arabs not proceed to probability theory and risk management? The answer, I believe, has to do with their view of life. Who determines our future: the fates, the gods, or ourselves? The idea of risk management emerges only when people believe that they are to some degree free agents. Like the Greeks and the early Christians, the fatalistic Muslims were not yet ready to take the leap.”
― Peter L. Bernstein, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk