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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by
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Giao Phan
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Finished first chapter. Main idea:
- an average forecaster can predict with the same precision as a chimp throws a dart.
- precision of predictions from even very well-known forecasters is often not verified.
- forecast about forecast: is the combination between human subjective judgments and computer prediction really the future direction? I guess this depends a lot on which problem we are predicting.
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- an average forecaster can predict with the same precision as a chimp throws a dart.
- precision of predictions from even very well-known forecasters is often not verified.
- forecast about forecast: is the combination between human subjective judgments and computer prediction really the future direction? I guess this depends a lot on which problem we are predicting.
