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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by
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Vicki Lambrukos
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Chapter 1: Introduction to the science of forecasting. Is forecasting anything more than just "a dart-throwing chimpanzee"? How can we trust experts when their accuracy is rarely tracked?
Forecasting is a two-way road. Sometimes, it operates like a clock–reliable, easily understandable. Other times, like a cloud–unpredictable, and frequently changing.
Small occurrences can trigger effects felt world-wide.
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Forecasting is a two-way road. Sometimes, it operates like a clock–reliable, easily understandable. Other times, like a cloud–unpredictable, and frequently changing.
Small occurrences can trigger effects felt world-wide.
