Status Updates From A Handbook of Primary Commo...

Dutch disease

Riskfaktorer:
importberoende, kvot av importvärde till värdeskapande, substitutsmöjlighet, nödvändighet, antal exportkällor och svårighet att byta ut dem

The fact that the R/P ratio for most commodities, including the ones enumerated above, has remained above 30 despite the explosive growth in extraction since 2000 is a forceful indicator that tendencies toward depletion have not been significant.

Påstående: Malthus hade fel vad gäller miljö och tillväxt.

Bra förklaring på riskminimeringsstrategier.

contango-teori

A reflection regarding commodity booms is that misguided beliefs
regularly develop during the period of elevated prices, that is, that
we now have a new, normal and much higher equilibrium price
level. This belief will typically lead to overinvestment and an ensuing period of depressed prices once the excessive investments
mature. This phenomenon is clearly visible in a scrutiny of historical
commodity prices

Commodity booms are defined as a major deviation from longrun equilibrium prices. Three such booms are identified in the
period after the Second World War, and all have been triggered
by exceptionally strong commodity-demand increases caused by
fast economic growth in the world economy. Prices return closer
to equilibrium when the boom ends, either because of recession
and slow demand growth or because new capacity

en råvarububbla föregås av en plötslig konsumtionsökning av någon delråvara

k 6, snr 116, avrundning för idag.

other, less controversial, reasons that could explain
the observed long-run decline in real commodity prices. First, the
income elasticity of demand for most commodities (defined as the
percentage change in demand due to a 1% change in income) is commonly lower than for manufactures, and so, with expanding income,
the lower growth of commodity demand is likely to result in a weaker
commodity price development.

How can one explain the predominant downward long-run price
performance of commodities versus manufactures? It is first worth
noting that the evidence of falling relative commodity price trends
revealed by numerous studies, including the ones quoted here, is contrary to the theories and expectations of the classical economists.

Råvaror instabilare än industriella varor i pris, men ändå, ekonometriskt, stabila i förhållande till tillgänglig kapacitet

A contributory reason for oil’s dominant position among commodities
is its price rise since the early 1970s. Figure 4.1 demonstrates that real oil
prices rose by an astounding 780% from 1970–1972 to 2016–2018. To
put this into perspective, the figure compares the oil price evolution with
an index of prices for metals and minerals, a group of commodities that,
like oil, are exhaustible. The latter rose not even 10%.

rika världen: The consumption of most industrial commodities in the three rich, economically mature regions has been stagnant since 1990, and
falling in most cases since 2005.

The level of the price elasticity of demand constitutes yet another
important distinguishing feature between commodities. The ones with
many close substitutes will have high price elasticities of demand. If the
price increases, demand is redirected in favor of the substitutes. This is
true, for instance, of bananas and lamb, the demand for which is easily
shifted toward other fruits and meats.

The Standard International Trade Classification (SITC, also
designed by the United Nations), which is employed to distinguish
between different categories of goods in international trade, provides
an alternative and, for our purposes, somewhat more appropriate
tool for defining commodities

Between 1960 and 1988, the average size of the bulk carrier fleet more
than doubled. In 1960, virtually all internationally traded iron ore and
coal was shipped in vessels of less than 40 000 dwt, but this proportion
had declined to 10% or less by 1988. Carriers in excess of 100 000 dwt
did not exist in 1960, but by 1988 they accounted for 70% of iron ore and
40% of coal shipments (Lundgren, 1996).

jord och metalls minskande betydelse över industriell tid