Truls Ljungström’s Reviews > A Handbook of Primary Commodities in the Global Economy > Status Update

Dutch disease

Riskfaktorer:
importberoende, kvot av importvärde till värdeskapande, substitutsmöjlighet, nödvändighet, antal exportkällor och svårighet att byta ut dem

The fact that the R/P ratio for most commodities, including the ones enumerated above, has remained above 30 despite the explosive growth in extraction since 2000 is a forceful indicator that tendencies toward depletion have not been significant.

Påstående: Malthus hade fel vad gäller miljö och tillväxt.

Bra förklaring på riskminimeringsstrategier.

contango-teori

A reflection regarding commodity booms is that misguided beliefs
regularly develop during the period of elevated prices, that is, that
we now have a new, normal and much higher equilibrium price
level. This belief will typically lead to overinvestment and an ensuing period of depressed prices once the excessive investments
mature. This phenomenon is clearly visible in a scrutiny of historical
commodity prices

Commodity booms are defined as a major deviation from longrun equilibrium prices. Three such booms are identified in the
period after the Second World War, and all have been triggered
by exceptionally strong commodity-demand increases caused by
fast economic growth in the world economy. Prices return closer
to equilibrium when the boom ends, either because of recession
and slow demand growth or because new capacity