John’s Reviews > Markets Never Forget (But People Do): How Your Memory Is Costing You Money—and Why This Time Isn’t Different > Status Update

Mao's giant leap forward which was neither great nor a leap Norfolk. He mandated collectivism & self-sufficiency. Instead of importing steel from countries doing it better & cheaper, Mao forced citizens to build backyard furnaces & smart scrap metal. Tens of millions dead from starvation you don't want to live in a non-interconnected world.

The Republican Western nominee effect every Republican Presidential nominee but for one has had significant, bonafide Western roots.
The Democratic Eastern nominee effect-denominator east of the Mississippi. They do not like westerners.

Newly elected Republican-stocks have averaged 18.8%. Newly elected Democrat is even spookier-stocks average -2.7%.
Years we re-election Democrats, stocks historically averaged 14.5%. Not as good as when we 1st elected Republican in the election year, but better than when we reelect Republicans-when the average is 10.6%. Markets are less impressed by then, Republicans pro-business schtick his 2nd time around.

But when legislative risk aversion decreases-as it typically does in years 3 & 4-stock returns historically have been more uniformly positive.
The president is hectic. He can't get elected to any higher office, & he really, really wants to get reelected & is very tick-ish. His gig is only 8 years long, Max. It gets one shot of reelection & usually does.

First & second years of presidential 8.1% & 9.0%, while third & fourth average 19.4% & 10.9%.
Legislation- no matter how its coached or how many thousands of pages it's on- typically results in a distribution of money, property rights or regulatory changes.
A 25% gain feels as good as a 10% loss feels bad. For Europeans, it's even higher.

Small caps near the end of a 🐻 & in the earlier stages of a new bull typically outpreform .
During the mature stages of a bull market, you want to own large cap stocks.
When the yield curve flattens out relatively, banks are less eager to lend. Value stocks don't like that. Growth stocks have the advantage because they can & do borrow.

Before 1997, homeowners got a once-per-lifetime capital gains exemption on a sale of residential real estate-$250,000 for singles & $500,000 for couples. That changed to an exemption every two years. Before that tax law, folks tended to stay in their homes longer. Or, if they moved, then roll games into the next property.with the tax law change, people suddenly had an incentive to sell their homes-no tax man ding

Heat chasers don't chase heat because they know it's risky-they chase he because they think the hot asset class is inherently safer & permanently better.
It's very difficult Behavior to overcome-its evolutionary. Long ago, you must learn to follow patterns to stay alive;in the same way of something's had a consistent run of good returns, our brains want to tell us, look at that pattern. That means safer, we think

Small caps have annualized 12% to the overall market's 9.9% (since Feb. 1926). Alot of the outperformance ignores huge bid/ask spreads that were common in small caps on the 1930s & 1940s -sometimes up to 30% of the purchase price. Small caps tend to bounce huge off bear market bottoms.
Anything that becomes widely known loses power-this includes info, but also investing tools, methods & valuations.

When the government spends money, they spend it very stupidly. But when the government, you, or anyone or anything borrows & spends 💰, it changes hands six times on average in the first year in the US-it varies by country.
$ goes to one of 3 places-a person, an institution or other governments.
How fast $ changes hands-is called velocity.