Manny’s Reviews > Rational Decisions > Status Update
Manny
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You have to admire Binmore's breadth. Hands up everyone who's seen another book which spends significant time discussing both empathy and Kolmogorov's axiomatisation of probability theory.
— Jun 14, 2021 01:40AM
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Manny’s Previous Updates
Manny
is on page 190 of 224
Well, I can't decide if that really was a satisfactory punchline. Maybe it takes a while to get the joke?
— Jun 20, 2021 05:54AM
Manny
is on page 160 of 224
An extreme form of Bayesianism holds that scientists actually do use some form of Bayesian updating when revising a theory, but that they are unconscious of doing so. This notion has been put to me with great urgency on several occasions, but you might as well seek to persuade me that fairies live at the bottom of my garden.
— Jun 17, 2021 09:24PM
Manny
is on page 70 of 224
Setting the utility of one's death to -∞ is nonsensical, because then no one would take any risks at all. In fact, empirical studies of preferences revealed by driving behaviour suggest that most people value their lives at under ten million dollars.
— Jun 13, 2021 01:20AM
Manny
is on page 50 of 224
The Prisoner's Dilemma teaches the important lesson that rationality need not be good for a society. However, the response that we should therefore junk the orthodox theory in favor of some notion of collective rationality makes no sense. One might as well propose abandoning arithmetic because two loaves and seven fishes won't feed a multitude.
— Jun 10, 2021 05:15PM
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Robert
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Jun 14, 2021 01:52AM
I might be applying Kolmogorov Entropy in the medium term; pretty sure it's the same Kolmogorov.
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Just looked it up, does indeed seem to be another creation of the great Kolmogorov! What would you be using it for?
Manny wrote: "Just looked it up, does indeed seem to be another creation of the great Kolmogorov! What would you be using it for?"It's sometimes used in chaos theory as a way to quantify average predictability times of a system when you have fixed, finite precision measurements of an observable of the system. It is a consequence of Shannon's information theory, as extended by Kolmogorov and Renyi. If I use it, it will be one tool to identify whether an observed system is chaotic or not.
I didn't know there were empirical ways to determine whether a system is chaotic - it had never even occurred to me to wonder whether there were. How interesting!
Manny wrote: "I didn't know there were empirical ways to determine whether a system is chaotic - it had never even occurred to me to wonder whether there were. How interesting!"It's an endevour fraught with pitfalls - do not attempt from a position of naivity!
Yes, I can see why it might be difficult! I'm impressed that it's possible at all.
There's some gob-smacking pure maths theorems behind it all.
If Kolmogorov was involved I'd be astonished to hear anything else.
Manny wrote: "If Kolmogorov was involved I'd be astonished to hear anything else."He wasn't, really. The concept of Kolmogorov entropy has numerous applications, of which this is only one. If you're really interested, look up the Takens Embedding Theorem which is basically mathemagic!
